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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1236Z Feb 03, 2023)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
736 AM EST FRI FEB 03 2023

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB
03/12UTC: THIS MORNING..A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N AND
70W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC.
THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A TRADE WIND CAP OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI...THE CAP STILL LIES
AT AROUND THE 750HPA LEVEL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...THE TRADES HAVE AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS IN
THE 15-20KT RANGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY OVER THE OCEAN...WHICH THEN CAUSES THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED
AFTER THE MID-MORNING HOURS...WITH NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO HAVING
SOME RAINFALL...BUT STILL OBSERVING MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER DURING THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WIND CAP
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING
FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION...IF OTHER FACTORS
ALLOW IT. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE LAPSE RATE...AND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BETWEEN 1.4 INCHES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND COVERAGE DURING
THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SURPASS 0.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO..WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL CAUSE OVER 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. THE
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY. THE TRADES WILL BE FROM
THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL FOCUS
MORNING CONVECTION IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST. ON MONDAY...A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...BUT TUESDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHER RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW TO MID LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.


ALAMO/ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)