TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 02 OCT 2024 AT 1900 UTC:

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING HURRICANE KIRK
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
THERE IS ALSO THE NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN...LOCATED AROUND 430 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT WILL REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS AS
WELL. THE SITUATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS A BIT COMPLICATED.
CURRENTLY THE NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E...WHICH IS LOCATED AT AROUND 70 MILES SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL
IN MEXICO. THIRTEEN-E IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY
TONIGHT...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST BY NHC...THE CENTER OF
THIRTEEN-E MAY REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AND THURSDAY...POSSIBLY GOING INLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE LATEST DISCUSSION BY NHC...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST AND OFFICIAL OUTLOOKS
ISSUED BY THE NHC AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.  

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED...AND THERE IS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICAN
COUNTRIES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WHEN IT
COMES TO THE TRACK OF THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E.
THEREFORE...THE DIFFERENT MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THAT BEING
SAID...REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIRTEEN-E...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REST OF TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL
HAVE MORE RAIN OVER THAT AREA COMPARED TO FRIDAY...THOUGH
PERSISTENT RAINFALL COULD BE OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
OAXACA INTO GUERRERO. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL FORECAST...THE 3-DAY
TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 100-200MM...BUT ISOLATED VALUES
COULD BE AS MUCH AS 300MM...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OVER EASTERN
VERACRUZ AND EASTERN OAXACA. THE DAILY MAX VALUES OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO COULD BE AS MUCH AS 75-150MM TODAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...50-100MM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND 25-50MM ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY....THOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ADDS TO THE
OVERALL COMPLEXITY IN THE AREA SURROUNDING SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE
IS A SFC TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF...AND PREVAILING LIGHTER
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AND CYCLONIC ROTATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID OR
UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND THE
WIND FLOW WILL CAUSE INTERACTIONS WITH THE COAST AND MAY HELP WITH
THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN REGION WILL HAVE RELATIVELY MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WESTERN CUBA ON THURSDAY. A SFC TROUGH WITH
DEEPER ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CAUSING SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA AS IT
MOVES NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...THE DAILY MAX VALUES OF RAIN ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25-50MM FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AND OVER WESTERN CUBA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REST OF THE ANTILLES WILL HAVE BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH ONLY A MARGINAL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST
FOR THE GREATER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST ARE STILL IN THE ORDER OF 25MM OR LESS.

ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A SERIES OF SFC TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...BUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR ANY PARTICULAR THUNDERSTORM
ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES SHOW A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE...AND A
FEW SFC TROUGHS IN THE AREA...THE DIURNAL HEATING AND WIND FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES TO CAUSE DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MOST OF THE AREAS IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ARE FORECAST MAX DAILY
TOTALS BETWEEN 20-45MM.


ALAMO...(WPC)