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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1806Z May 13, 2024)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 13 MAY 2024 AT 1815 UTC: A POTENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...EXTENDING OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE IS FAVORING TRADE
WIND CAP INVERSIONS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN AND LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL BE BLOCKING THE
PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS COMING FROM THE NORTH...FAVORING
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

TO THE WEST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND DEEPENS OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AS PRESSURES DECREASE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE
UNITED STATES...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS INTO EASTERN MEXICO.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TO THE SOUTH...THE PASSING OF
TROUGHS PROPAGATING FROM THE EAST WILL FAVOR INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA
MADRE DE CHIAPAS STARTING ON MONDAY. TO THE EAST...THE EASTERLY
TRADES ARE CONVERGING ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF GUATEMALA AND
CHIAPAS. THESE ARE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INCREASED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL CHIAPAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GUATEMALA...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ON MONDAY. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM. ON
TUESDAY...CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TO CHIAPAS...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL REGION...CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY...CHIAPAS...AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
NORTHERN COAHUILA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

IN CENTRAL AMERICA...TROUGHS PROPAGATING ALONG THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
THE REGION. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...WHILE IN THE PACIFIC
SIDE OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...THE ITCZ IS MEANDERING JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND ASSISTING WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION.
ALOFT...THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A GENERAL RIDGE SET
UP...LIMITING PRECIPITATION TO LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ON
MONDAY...FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA...ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE
COUNTRY...INTO SOUTHWEST PANAMA...AND THE AZUERO
PENINSULA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN COSTA
RICA/PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...FROM
GUANACASTE TO THE OSA PENINSULA IN COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...FROM GUANACASTE TO WEST PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. FROM THE AZUERO PENINSULA TO THE DARIEN REGION IN
PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EASTERLY WAVES AND TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE ITCZ/NET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ALOFT...EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTOR OF THE CONTINENT...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE GUIANAS ON
MONDAY. TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN SOUTHERN
BRASIL AND EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...FAVORING VENTILATION IN ITS PERIPHERY FROM EAST ECUADOR
TO THE GUIANAS. DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE EASTERLY WAVES
AND TROUGH INTERACT WITH THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM
NORTHERN PARA TO EASTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL. MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IS
EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN COLOMBIA DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. AN EASTERLY
WAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN SURINAME AND WEST PARA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM IN PARA...WHILE A TROUGH OVER RORAIMA AND EAST AMAZONAS
WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS. FROM CENTRAL COLOMBIA...INTO EAST
ECUADOR AND NORTH PERU EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST ECUADOR. ON TUESDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE
DISSIPATING OVER THE ANDEAN REGION IN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM FROM SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...TO WEST AMAZONAS AND EAST
PERU. THE WAVE WILL ALSO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...WEST PERU AND ECUADOR...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND INTO THE DARIEN REGION IN PANAMA. AN
EASTERLY LOCATED OVER WEST GUYANA AND INTO RORAIMA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GUIANAS AND INTO
RORAIMA AND NORTHEAST AMAZONAS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN
EASTERN COLOMBIA...WEST VENEZUELA...AND INTO AMAZONAS-BRASIL.
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
VENEZUELA...ND CENTRAL AMAZONAS. WESTERN COLOMBIA AND WEST ECUADOR
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

ACOSTA...WPC (USA)