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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1241Z Feb 02, 2023)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
741 AM EST THU FEB 02 2023

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB
02/12UTC: ON THURSDAY MORNING..A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS NEAR
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE MAINTAINS THE
TRADE WIND CAP OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. IN PUERTO RICO
AND THE VI...THE CAP LIES AT AROUND THE 750HPA LEVEL FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE ISLANDS. THIS IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO FAVOR
MODERATE SHOWERS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...THE TRADES HAVE AN
EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE. THIS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR SHALLOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE
OCEAN...WHICH IS FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MOST
OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND AS EVIDENCED BY THE SAN JUAN RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY...TO CENTER NEAR 26N 57W BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER DURING THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH A RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...THERE IS MODEL
CONSISTENCY ON A WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WIND CAP STARTING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION...IF OTHER FACTORS ALLOW IT.
THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...VEERING TO EASTERLIES ON FRIDAY...TO THEN OSCILLATE
FROM THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
FOCUS MORNING CONVECTION IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST.  A MOIST PLUME IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.


GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)