TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 PM EDT TUE JUN 06 2023

FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 06 JUN 2023 AT 1900 UTC: A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHERE IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING AND
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A MID-UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE ITS DIVERGENT SIDE OVER
THE PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND JAMAICA FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE RAINIER. TODAY...PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST FOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. JAMAICA
IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM MAXIMA. ON
WEDNESDAY...SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA AND JAMAICA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-60MM...CUBA BEING ON THE UPPER
END OF THAT RANGE. ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
BAHAMAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES COULD EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. THURSDAY LOOKS WETTER FOR CENTRAL CUBA AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...WITH FORECAST MAXIMA RANGING BETWEEN 40 AND 80MM...BUT
AS MUCH AS 100MM COULD BE OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION WITH A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CAUSE
RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. TODAY...THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...AS THE COMBINATION OF A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT AFFECTS THE AREA. ACROSS
GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR...MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE RANG OF 20-45MM...WHILE CHIAPAS/OAXACA/VERACRUZ OF
MEXICO...RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...PANAMA COULD OBSERVE 30-60MM
OF RAINFALL. ON WEDNESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST OVER
PANAMA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED...BUT COSTA RICA THEN
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE 25-50MM OF RAIN. THE REST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO
ARE FORECAST FOR GENERALIZED ISOLATED MAXIMA BETWEEN 15-35MM.

IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE AREA. THE BELOW CHART PROVIDES
PRECIPITATION.

POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE  SOF INIT 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00
TW    12N  41W   45W   48W   52W   55W   57W   60W   63W
TW    14N  63W   67W   69W   70W   72W   74W   76W   78W
TW    18N  75W   78W   80W  DISS   ---   ---   ---   ---       

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 41W AND SOUTH OF 12N. IT IS
CURRENTLY OVER OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL ARRIVE AT THE FRENCH
GUIANA/AMAPA-BRASIL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER THE
SURINAME/GUYANA BORDER...WHERE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 63W AND SOUTH OF 14N.
TODAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. EAST
VENEZUELA/RORAIMA-BRASIL ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE RAINFALL MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM...WHILE THE EXTREME EAST OF VENEZUELA MAY EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 25-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
VENEZUELA. CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND NORTH AMAZONAS-BRASIL ARE
FORECAST TO OBSERVE RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE
WAVE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 75W AND SOUTH OF 18N.
TODAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER EAST PANAMA...WHERE GENERALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED...WHILE WESTERN PANAMA COULD
OBSERVE 30-60MM. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST TO WESTERN PANAMA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER COSTA
RICA WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE PANAMA REMAINS AT 20-45MM.
THEREAFTER...THE WAVE LOSES DEFINITION AND DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY.



ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)