TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
757 AM EDT THU APR 11 2024

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 11/12UTC:
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE STATIONARY TO THE
SOUTH OF PR/USVI. THIS IS CAUSING DEEPER MOISTURE TO PERSIST OVER
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...WHILE NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING
1.8 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL. A SHARP DECREASE IN MOISTURE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER SHARP INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS PR/USVI...WITH DAILY MAX TOTALS UNDER A
HALF AN INCH TODAY...AND IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND THEN
MONDAY COULD OBSERVE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AS WELL.

ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...THERE IS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST...EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS ANOTHER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. THESE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE NE TO ENE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN STABLE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD AMPLIFY
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE MID TO UPPER TROUGHS TO OUR
WEST WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVER PR/USVI ON MONDAY. THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 2.5 INCHES OVER
NORTHEASTERN PR. BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR. VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND THE
USVI ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.30 AND ONE INCH OF RAIN.

ALAMO...WPC (USA)