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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1255Z Feb 01, 2023)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
755 AM EST WED FEB 01 2023

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB
01/12UTC: IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N
60W...ACROSS THE WEST LESSER ANTILLES...INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA.  A
ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING TRADE
WIND INVERSION AT AROUND 800HPA OVER THE ISLANDS. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE..BUT SPEEDS HAVE
DECREASED TO THE 15-20KT RANGE. THIS IS ASSISTING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...AND IN THEIR ADVECTION
INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO PROPAGATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE VI. THIS
IS FAVORING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO
RICO...AND MORE ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND IN  INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE PROXY
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE SAN JUAN RADAR

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER EASTWARD DURING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...CENTERING TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING THE TRADE WIND CAP UNTIL SATURDAY. AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THE TRADE
WIND CAP IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE WIND CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
IN SPEED SIGNIFICANTLY...REACHING 20-25KT BY SUNDAY..AND PEAKING
BETWEEN 950-925HPA. THIS WILL FORCE THE LARGEST AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OFFSHORE OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

IN THE MEANTIME...ON WEDNESDAY...ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FROM
0.3-0.4 INCHES IN NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...AS THE TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH ENHANCED ASCENT. AMOUNTS DECREASE...ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TO 0.15-0.2 INCHES IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD.  ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ON THE EAST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 0.4 INCHES.

ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)