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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1249Z Jan 31, 2023)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2023

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN
31/12UTC: IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR 25N 50W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES...WITH ITS BASE IN NORTHWEST VENEZUELA. THIS IS
HIGHLIGHTING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE WIND CONVECTION IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC...BUT ACTIVITY REMAINS SHALLOW OVER THE ISLANDS
THIS TUESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. THE
RIDGE CENTERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OFF THE
WEST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE
TRADE WIND INVERSION APPEARS TO BE AT AROUND 800HPA OVER THE
ISLANDS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25KT...WHICH ASSOCIATES WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PESTERING NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND PART OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CHANGING LITTLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST TRADE WIND CAP ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION BY THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN TRADE WIND
CONVECTION ADVECTED FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL AIR WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO...IN COMBINATION WITH NORTHEASTERLY TRADES. ON
FRIDAY...THE RIDGE ROLLS EASTWARD...TO CENTER NEAR 26N 58W BY
FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG CAP...BUT
THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE ON FRIDAY INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO
EASTERLIES ON FRIDAY AND TO SOUTHEASTERLIES ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS ON
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL MAXIMA FROM 0.3-0.35 INCHES IN NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE GENERALLY
UNDER 0.20 INCHES/DAY...UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN AMOUNTS INCREASE
AGAIN WITH MAXIMA GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.2-0.25 INCHES.


ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)