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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1819Z Aug 10, 2018)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM AUG 10/12 UTC: A DEEPENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA EARLY
IN THE CYCLE. THIS IS TO THEN EXTEND A TROUGH ACROSS THE RIO BRAVO
TO THE NORTHWEST STATES OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...WHERE IT IS TO
MEANDER DURING THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO IT IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION
CLUSTERING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. MOST ACTIVE ALONG
THE SIERRA IS EXPECTED BETWEEN WESTERN CHIHUAHUA AND SONORA. IN
THIS AREA INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THROUGH SUNDAY THIS INCREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ACROSS SINALOA TO THE SOUTH INITIALLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM/DAY...INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS TO ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
CHIHUAHUA TO COAHUILA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM...INCREASING TO 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM ON
SUNDAY AS ENHANCED BY A JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

ALSO AT 250 HPA...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO TO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AS
THE RIDGE HOLDS...IT IS TO  STEER A WANING TUTT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS MOVES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS TO THEN PULL ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
TO THE CAMPECHE SOUND LATER ON SATURDAY TO EARLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING...TO MEANDER WEST ACROSS VERACRUZ LATER IN THE DAY. AS IT
MEANDERS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO FAVOR
WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTION. ACROSS BELIZE-QUINTANA ROO THIS WILL
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON
SUNDAY...WHILE OVER TABASCO-NORTHERN CHIAPAS IT IS TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

A DEEPER TUTT LIES TO THE EAST...EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM A
CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. A BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE FORCES THIS
LOW/TROUGH TO RETROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...DRIFTING
ACROSS HAITI TO EASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA ON SATURDAY. THIS IS TO
CONTINUE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN LATER ON SUNDAY. AT MID
LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INDUCING AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH AXIS TO EXTEND NORTH FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA ACROSS HAITI TO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY. THIS MEANDERS WEST ACROSS 80W LATER ON
SATURDAY...DAMPENING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATER DURING THE
WEEKEND. AS IT MEANDERS OVER HISPANIOLA EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS
TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF15-25MM.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA THIS IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FAVORING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER CENTRAL
CUBA THIS IS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM ON SUNDAY.

HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH IN INTERACTION WITH THE
ITCZ AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA-SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ACROSS CENTRAL-NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER NORTHERN-WESTERN COLOMBIA INITIALLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THIS INCREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE ITCZ OVER PANAMA-COSTA RICA...TO RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THROUGH
SUNDAY THIS DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AS IT
SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA-NORTHEAST HONDURAS. LATER ON
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IT WILL TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY THE
MAXIMA INCREASES TO 25-50MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24    36    48    60    72    84    96    TYPE      SOF
27W     30W   33W   36W   39W   40W   42W   44W    TW       19N
58W     61W   64W   67W   71W   74W   78W   82W    TW       23N
64W     67W   71W   74W   76W   78W   79W   80W TUTT INDCD  27N 
72W     74W   77W   80W   83W   85W   89W   81W TUTT INDCD  18N   
94W     97W   99W  101W  103W  105W  107W  110W    TW       24N

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W AND SOUTH OF 19N IS TO CONFINE TO THE
ATLANTIC ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W AND SOUTH OF 23N IS MOVING AT A SLOWER
PACE THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...IN INTERACTION WITH
THE TUTT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...THIS IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE LEEWARD-NORTHERN FRENCH ISLES TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS GUYANA TO EASTERN VENEZUELA...WHERE IT IS TO TRIGGER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION. ON SATURDAY ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES
TO PUERTO RICO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS VENEZUELA THIS IS TO
THEN INTERACT WITH THE NET IN SUPPORT OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. OVER HAITI THIS IS TO THEN
TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON
SUNDAY...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OVER NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA THIS IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

TUTT OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SUSTAINS AN INDUCED/INVERTED
TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES...WITH AXIS ALONG 64W TO 27N. ACROSS
PUERTO RICO THIS IS TO ONLY TRIGGER WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHILE ACROSS HISPANIOLA EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM ON
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WHILE OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLES
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER
CENTRAL CUBA THIS INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
ON SUNDAY.

A TUTT INDUCED TROUGH ALONG 72W AND SOUTH OF 18N WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/EASTERN CUBA EARLY
IN THE CYCLE TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 10MM. AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THIS IS
TO ALSO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM. OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST STATES OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE CYCLE...TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

WARD-FORBES...BDM (THE BAHAMAS)
HERNANDEZ...IMTA (MEXICO)
TEJADA...AAC (PANAMA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)