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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1128Z Sep 14, 2020)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
728 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2020

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP
14/11UTC: NHC IS ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL STORM TEDDY AND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE...WITH BOTH EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A
TRACK THAT WILL KEEP THEM FAR TO THE EAST/NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A WANING TUTT CONTINUES TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON LOCAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CENTER ON A
CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS TO EXTEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH THAT
IS TO THEN PULL OVER A RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TUTT SEEMS TO BE
DEGRADING AT A FASTER PACE THAN WHAT THE MODELS ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED...AND ITS IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER IT IS NOT GOING TO
BE AS INTENSE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. AT LOW
LEVELS...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL HELP ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL FEED A
ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE DAY TODAY...WITH MOST INTENSE TO THE WEST OF BARCELONETA. ON
TUESDAY...PREVAILING EASTERLIES RETURN AS A TROPICAL WAVE STREAMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE REACHES EASTERN PUERTO RICO
EARLY IN THE MORNING...MOVING TO THE MONA PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS...MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION WITH THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING TO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE BRANCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...SUSTAINING A TRADE WINDS CAP WHILE
ALSO FAVORING EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT LOW LEVELS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS TEDDY INTENSIFIES TO A
MAJOR HURRICANE. THIS IS TO THEN STEER THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION RENE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE LOW LEVEL
EVOLUTION...THEY ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS TO EVOLVE. THE GFS IS THE ONLY ONE FORECASTING THE TUTT
TO REGENERATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE UKMET
AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILING. THUS RESULTING IN
HIGH VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON ITS IMPACT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

DAVISON...WPC (USA)