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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1057Z Aug 09, 2018)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
657 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2018

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG 09/06
UTC: A TUTT LOW CONTINUES DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WHILE CENTERING AT 22N 68W. THIS TUTT EXTENDS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE THAT CENTERS OVER TUBA. AT
MID-LEVELS...A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES EXTENDING OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES. TO THE EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
APPROACHING WHILE EXTENDING ALONG 56W.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE TUTT
WILL HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS IN CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION. THESE
WILL LIMIT TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN
CORDILLERA OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT WET SPELL DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. MOIST PLUME IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO EXIT WEST
INTO HISPANIOLA BY EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT DURING MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY...LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 1-2 INCHES. DEEP CONVECTION
AND RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE SAN JUAN METRO AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...STIMULATED BY OF STREAMERS FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5-1 INCHES PEAKING
DURING THE DAY.

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)