Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center
 
Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1216Z Jan 30, 2023)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
716 AM EST MON JAN 30 2023

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN
30/12UTC: IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTH ATLANTIC FROM NEAR 30N 55W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH
ITS BASE IN NORTHWEST VENEZUELA. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE WIND CONVECTION IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...BUT
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS LIMITED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SEASONAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE RIDGE
CENTERS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
THIS ASSOCIATES WITH A TRADE WIND CAP SITTING NEAR 800 HPA OVER
THE ISLANDS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...TRADE WINDS ARE FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25KT. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE VI ISLANDS WHILE FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST
OF PUERTO RICO.

REGARDING THE FORECAST...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY UNDULATE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE AND ITS EASTERN FLANK IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT AS A SURFACE RIDGE ROLLS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
EASTERLIES. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE WETTEST DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY PARTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FASTER NORTHEASTERLY TRADES AND ENHANCED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE.
EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA NEARING 0.2 INCHES IN NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EL
YUNQUE/LUQUILLO. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THIS DECREASES TO
0.1-0.15 IN/DAY ALONG NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. AS EASTERLY TRADES
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO CLUSTER TO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY IN EL YUNQUE/LUQUILLO...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCHES/DAY.

GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)