Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026


...Weekend South-Central to East/Southeast U.S. Heavy Rainfall
Threat with some northern periphery wintry component to monitor...

...Early next week moderate-heavy precipitation into the West...


...Overview...

A strong southern stream shortwave and associated surface low will
track across the Mid-South and Southeast Sunday-Monday with
enhanced precipitation likely across these regions and up into Mid-
Atlantic. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible with also
some potential still for a brief period of snow on the northern
side of the precipitation shield. Meanwhile, a deepening upper
trough/closed low will be positioned off the West Coast with
renewed and enhanced precipitation potential for much of the West
as waves of energy move inland. This eventually should spin up a
surface low in/around the northern Plains with possible winter
weather on the north side. In between, upper ridging favors well
above normal temperatures for much of the Central U.S..


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest guidance continues to show good agreement on the large
scale flow evolution in the upcoming medium range period, but with
plenty of uncertainty in the details of a couple of stronger
systems to move through the CONUS. The WPC blend for tonight
favored the deterministic models early on, with significantly more
weighting towards the ensemble means by late period.

The southern stream shortwave through the Southeast early next
week still shows quite a bit of uncertainty, particularly as the
surface low exits the Southeast. Models are trending towards
pulling this low away from the coast rather quickly, limiting the
overall winter weather impacts on the north side. The placement of
this low is still in question as well as the degree of phasing with
northern stream flow. GFS is still a south outlier and was not
included in the blend tonight.

Amplified troughing and an embedded upper low off the West Coast
to start the period on Sunday will move slowly eastward with energy
pushing inland around Tuesday. This looks to spin up a surface low
in the vicinity of the Northern Plains but the guidance continues
to vary on depth and timing of this, which impacts wintry weather
on the north side from the Northern Plains to the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. The 18z GFS was faster than consensus, but the
new 00z run seems better aligned. Another upper low/energy will
deepen off the Northwest coast to reload the overall trough and
keep the West active through much of the period.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

With the system tracking from into the Southeast U.S., widespread
precipitation is expected to accompany the surface low and cold
front across much of the Eastern U.S. on Sunday, with much of the
precipitation pushing offshore by Monday. Moderate to locally heavy
rainfall is possible and while this rainfall should be mostly
beneficial, moisture anomalies are well above normal and with some
instability present. As such, a broad marginal risk continues on
the Day 4/Sunday ERO for much of the Southeast. There is also still
some potential for wintry precipitation on the north side of the
low for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but latest guidance trends are
more offshore with a hazardous winter threat less and less likely.

The next trough off the West will have a greater influx of Pacific
moisture thus bringing increased precipitation potential to the
Pacific Northwest and down through southern California well into
next week. Heavy rainfall is possible along much of the California
coast, with heavy snow in the Sierra. The Day 5/Monday ERO does
depict a marginal risk for parts of southern California where
moisture anomalies and instability are greatest. Precipitation will
also spread inland across parts of the Intermountain West as well
to include some terrain enhanced snows and rain/snow mix even down
into the valleys of some areas. Precipitation should move into the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest next Tuesday into Wednesday
associated with a developing surface low. This likely falls in the
form of snow but impacts remain highly uncertain.

Nothing hazardous in terms of temperatures expected this period.
Temps look to be well above normal for much of the period in the
Central U.S. with daytime highs 15-20+ degrees above normal
initially in the north- central Plains and eventually shifting into
the southern Plains and mid-lower Mississippi Valley by later next
week. Temperatures across the West should trend cooler underneath
upper troughing, but warmer in the East as the Central U.S. upper
ridge progresses into the region.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw