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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0545Z Sep 14, 2019)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Valid 12Z Tue Sep 17 2019 - 12Z Sat Sep 21 2019

...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Latest models and ensemble members show a wide range of solutions
with embedded systems over time in a pattern with average to below
average predictabililty. Accordingly, the WPC medium range product
suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the more run
to run consistent GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the
National Blend of Models.

...Weather Highlights/Threats...

"Humberto" is forecast to deepen to hurricane stength over the
next few days, but an increasingly offshore NHC track now only
supports limited medium range rains/enhanced winds to coastal
FL/GA/SC/NC before it turns eastward out to sea early next week.

In the Pacific Northwest, a cooling surface front and subsequent
upper trough will bring a widespread chance of rain (some very
high elevation snow) to the region early in the week. This will
spread through the northern/central Great Basin/Rockies before
exiting to the northern Plains/Upper Midwest where an increasingly
active convection signature becomes evident with frontal system
passage/height falls. Increased moisture inflow in advance of the
fronts may lead to record high minimum temperatures. Meanwhile,
expect some tap of subtropical moisture out of Mexico on southwest
flow aloft down over the Southwest/Four Corners states. Strong
ridging downstream over the east-central U.S. may favor well-above
average temperatures next week with some near record Deep South
heat.

In the western Gulf of Mexico, a trough/wave associated with an
upper low favors a chance of rainfall, potentially locally heavy,
over southeastern/coastal Texas next week. Weak steering aloft may
allow this area of rain to persist through late week.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml