Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026


...Overview...

The southern stream will be quite active this weekend and into
early next week as a strong shortwave tracks across the southern
tier with an expanding area of enhanced precipitation across the
south-central U.S. to the East Coast. Moderate to locally heavy
rainfall is possible in spots, with still some potential for
uncertain wintry precipitation on the north side of the precip
shield from parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Meanwhile,
a deepening upper trough/closed low will drop south along the West
Coast with renewed and enhanced precipitation potential for much of
the West as waves of energy move inland. This eventually may spin
up a deep surface low in/around the northern Plains with possible
associated winter weather. In between, upper ridging will build
over the Central to Midwest with well above normal temperatures.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest guidance continues to show good agreement on an active
and amplified upcoming medium range period, but still a lot of
uncertainty in the important details. The WPC blend for tonight was
based more heavily on the deterministic guidance early in the
period, with a quick transition to majority (70 percent of the
blend) ensemble means by Day 7.

The first major source of uncertainty continues to be with a
southern tier shortwave, especially as it moves into the Southeast
and a surface low lifts out into the Atlantic. The placement and
evolution of this is directly related to how much and how quickly
phasing may occur with this and northern stream energy. The GFS
continues to be further south and less phased than the better
consensus. Preference is towards something a bit more phased and
north, and a general non- GFS model compromise seemed to give a
good starting point, and close to the previous shift continuity.

After this, troughing digs down the West Coast with a lot of
uncertainty on the timing and strength of individual waves of
energy moving inland. Consensus shows the main trough axis moving
into the West Coast around Tuesday/Wednesday with a leading
shortwave likely to spin up a deepening cyclone in/around the
Northern Plains by next Wednesday. Still a lot of uncertainty on
the placement of this and any associated winter weather, but a
blend towards the ensemble means worked well.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

With the system tracking from the Southwest to the southern U.S.,
widespread precipitation is expected to develop and spread quickly
into the south-central states through Saturday, reaching the East
by Sunday. There is growing consensus for the potential for
moderate to heavy rainfall for parts of the southern Plains into
the Mississippi Valley and while this rainfall should be mostly
beneficial, moisture anomalies are well above normal and there is
potential for some training along the frontal boundary. As such, a
broad marginal risk, with an embedded slight risk, continues on the
Day 4/Saturday ERO centered across the lower Mississippi Valley.
As the system moves through the East on sunday, moderate to heavy
rainfall is increasingly likely along the cold front and so a broad
marginal risk is in place across much of the Southeast. There is
also still some potential for an organized wintry precipitation
threat on the north side of the low from parts of the Mid-Atlantic
into the Northeast. But there is also a ton of uncertainty
associated with this, mostly due to lack of overall cold air
damming and uncertain system phasing.

The next trough off the West will have a greater influx of Pacific
moisture thus bringing increased precipitation potential to the
Pacific Northwest and down through southern California into the
weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible along much of the California
coast, especially Sunday and beyond with heavy snow in the Sierra.
Precipitation will also spread inland across parts of the
Intermountain West with time as well to include some terrain
enhanced snows and rain/snow mix even down into the valleys of some
areas. Precipitation will spread into the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest next Tuesday into Wednesday associated with a
developing surface low. This likely falls in the form of snow but
impacts remain highly uncertain.

Nothing hazardous in terms of temperatures expected this period.
Temps look to be well above normal at times for the central U.S.,
especially later in the period as upper ridging builds over the
region. Daytime highs could be 20+ degrees above normal in spots
across the north-central Plains and eventually into the Midwest.
Temperatures across the West should trend cooler underneath upper
troughing, but warmer in the East as the central U.S. upper ridge
progresses into the region.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw