Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026


...Overview...

A strong upper trough/low will be moving into the Southwest Friday
into Saturday with an expanding area of enhancing precipitation.
The southern stream will be quite active into next week as this
energy tracks across the southern tier ushering lead return flow
and an emerging threat for heavy precipitation to spread into the
East along with potential for uncertain wintry impacts on the
northern periphery of this system. A complicated but deepening
upper trough/closed low is meanwhile expected to drop south along
the West Coast with renewed enhanced precipitation potential as
waves of energy move inland. In between, upper ridging will build
over the Central U.S. bringing well above normal temperatures.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance shows good agreement on an active and amplified upcoming
medium range period, but still a lot of uncertainty in the smaller
scale but important details. The most impactful area of uncertainty
continues to be with a southern stream shortwave into the
Southwest on Friday and then to what degree this system phases with
the northern stream as it moves across the southern half of the
country and off the East Coast early next week. The GFS continues
to be less phased and less progressive, with the ECMWF slightly
more
progressive and the Canadian more stream phased. There has been an
overall 00/06/12 UTC guidance cycle trend for increased system
suppression and a blend of the GFS/GEFS mean and ECMWF/ECMWF
ensemble mean seems to provide a solid forecast base. However,
ensemble clusters still show some support for all these camps.

Behind this, the large scale pattern transitions to being more
amplified with the next trough that develops off of the West Coast
with ridging present downstream over the CONUS. There is reasonable
agreement on the evolution of this trough, but lots of questions
with various pieces of energy which dig and then work into the
West. The aforementioned favored guidance blend seems to address.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

With the system tracking from the Southwest to the southern U.S.,
widespread precipitation is expected to develop and spread quickly
into the south-central states Friday and Saturday, reaching the
East by Sunday. There is growing consensus for the potential for
moderate to heavy rainfall for parts of the southern Plains into
the Mississippi Valley Friday and Saturday. While this rainfall
should be mostly beneficial, moisture anomalies are well above
normal and there is potential for some training along the frontal
boundary, so marginal risks were added to the Day 4/Friday and Day
5/Saturday Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. In addition and given
growing signature, a Slight Risk area was also introduced, centered
on Valentine's Day. As the main and secondary surfaces low move
through the Southeast and lifts up and off the East Coast, there
is potential an organized wintry precipitation threat on the north
side of the low from parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast.
There is less dammed cold air than during the recent Arctic blast,
but the less progressive southern stream system approach would
allow lingering dammed air to tap. Even so, confidence remains low
on potential impact specifics given system and phasing uncertainty.

The next trough off the West will have a greater influx of Pacific
moisture thus bringing increased precipitation potential to the
Pacific Northwest and down through southern California from Friday
and especially into the weekend. Heavy precipitation is possible
for particularly the California coast and into the snowy Sierra.
Precipitation will spread inland across parts of the Intermountain
West with time as well to include some terrain enhanced snows.

Nothing hazardous in terms of temperatures expected this period.
Temps look to be well above normal at times for the central U.S.,
especially later in the period as upper ridging builds over the
region. Daytime highs could be 20+ degrees above normal in spots
across the north-central Plains. Both the East and West coast
states should be near or within a few degrees of normal, though the
West may trend cooler as the trough begins to move inland early
next week.


Santorelli/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw