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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1949Z Aug 19, 2022)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 347 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Valid 00Z Sat Aug 20 2022 - 00Z Mon Aug 22 2022 ...Significant heavy rainfall event may lead to major flash flood impacts in the Southwest... ...More heat expected across interior California and the Pacific Northwest... ...Thunderstorms could become severe over the Midwest today and thunderstorms and possible flooding rains will spread across the South/Southeast and then up the Mid-Atlantic by the weekend... Much of southern Arizona and New Mexico could have prolific rainfall and widespread significant flash flooding conditions into the weekend as a mid-level low and anomalously high moisture associated with a remnant tropical wave help to enhance storm development associated with an already very active monsoon season. WPC has a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall covering southeast Arizona and southwest/central New Mexico, Slight Risk spanning from western Arizona to the Texas panhandle and Marginally encompassing those areas and into the Four Corners/Rockies region. Areal average rainfall totals of 2-3 inches, with locally higher amounts approaching 5-7 inches, may lead to numerous instances of flash flooding. Urban locations in addition to areas of complex terrain, slot canyons, arroyos, and burn scars are especially vulnerable for flash flooding and can quickly turn into very dangerous situations. The focus of the heavy rainfall is expected to shift eastward into the Southern Plains and persist in proximity to a wavy, stationary front stretching from the Southeast into the Southern Plains. Several inches of rain are forecast along a nearly west-east axis from the Texas Panhandle to the Gulf states, with the heaviest amounts focusing over northeast Texas, southern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Much of this part of the country has had drought conditions, but multiple days of moderate to excessive rainfall may quickly lead to areas of flooding. WPC parts of Southern Plains covered by a Slight Risk for Sunday into Monday. Further north, widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue along a frontal system moving from the Northern Plains into the Midwest into the weekend. Instability associated with an upper low rotating across the northern Plains toward the Midwest could trigger severe thunderstorms later today into tonight from Iowa into northern Missouri and western Illinois. This system will likely trigger additional strong to severe thunderstorms as it approaches the Great Lakes later Saturday into Sunday morning. The heatwave will persist over California and the Pacific Northwest. Numerous heat-related advisories are in place as temperatures are forecast to reach into the upper 90s to low 100s today for portions of the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. Some moderating of the daily temperatures will occur by Saturday with the approaching upper-level, with a few degrees cool down expected. The central valleys of California, the heat is forecast to peak on Saturday where afternoon temperatures are expected to reach into the low to mid-100s. In contrast, much of the Southwest, Great Basin and Southern Rockies will be well below normal due to the extensive cloud cover and prolonged rainfall. Daily maximum temperatures will stay in the 70s to lower 80s. Below normal highs are also forecast for the Southeast (low to mid-80s) and for the Northern Plains (low to mid-70s) under the upper low, with temperatures increasing a few degrees closer to normal Saturday. Hotter temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees will return to the Mid-Atlantic and New England with otherwise tranquil conditions expected into the weekend. Campbell Graphics are available at