Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 19 2019 - 00Z Wed Aug 21 2019

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the eastern
half of the United States...

...Heavy rainfall and localized flooding expected for portions of northern
Florida...

...Potentially record-setting heat persists across much of the southern
tier and stretching into the East...

...Elevated fire conditions for portions of the West...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently forming ahead of a cold
front moving through the Midwest today and toward the Lower Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley on Monday. Farther south, the front is expected to stall
in the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. Some storms could be
severe, especially from lower Michigan to southern Illinois today, where
the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a Slight Risk of severe weather.
Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash floods are also possible with
these storms, which will spread toward the Northeast on Monday. By
Tuesday, another cold front will approach the central U.S. and bring
another round of possible severe weather.

A weakening frontal boundary will remain over the Southeast U.S. this
evening, with lower pressures at the surface. Gulf moisture flowing into
the vicinity of these features will lead to the potential for heavy
rainfall over parts of northern Florida through Monday, which has already
received an abundant amount of rain in recent days. Slight Risks of
excessive rainfall/flash flooding are in place for portions of the Florida
panhandle today and Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible
for the Central Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas.

Above average temperatures are forecast to be widespread for much of the
country, with potential for record daily highs to be set across the
Northeast and southern High Plains on Monday. High temperatures are
forecast to reach the triple digits across western Texas, with widespread
90s across the Northeast. Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches are in place
for the Southwest as well. Meanwhile, below average temperatures are
expected in the Northern Plains behind a cold front on Tuesday.

As low humidities combine with gusty winds in the West, portions of the
Great Basin and the Central/Northern Rockies are under Red Flag Warnings.
No notable precipitation is expected for the West, despite it being
typical monsoon season.


Snell/Tate


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php