Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 12Z Mon May 25 2026 - 12Z Wed May 27 2026

...Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue across much of the Southern U.S.
through midweek with flash flooding and severe weather concerns...

...Turning more active across the West as a large Pacific low brings
increasing shower and storm chances...

...Unseasonably hot weather is forecast across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest the next few days as temperatures soar into the 90s...

A series of upper-level disturbances interacting with a stalled frontal
boundary stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the southern
Mid-Atlantic will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms across much
of the Southern U.S. the next few days. Along and south of the boundary, a
very warm, humid, and unstable air mass is and will remain in place,
setting the stage for heavy rain and possible flash flooding through
midweek. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall that covers much of the Southeast and central
Gulf Coast through this afternoon and evening, highlighting the potential
for clusters of thunderstorms with high rainfall rates to produce
scattered instances of flash flooding. Urban centers, low-lying, and poor
drainage areas would be the most at risk. The flash flooding threat
expands westward into Texas on Tuesday, with the Weather Prediction Center
issuing another Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. In addition to the
flooding threat, severe weather will be possible as well, particularly
across parts of southwestern Texas. The main hazards from any strong to
severe thunderstorms include large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes.

Meanwhile, after a stretch of dry weather the past few days, the West
starts turning more active as moisture increases and a large Pacific low
pressure system swings into the Pacific Northwest and spins over the Great
Basin through mid to late week. Shower and thunderstorm activity will ramp
up daily, especially across the higher valleys and mountainous terrain. A
little snow is possible across the highest elevations of the Cascades and
the Sierra as well, given a pocket of colder air aloft. At the very least,
the colder air will drop temperatures to near or even below average across
parts of the West after several days of above normal temperatures.

With the colder air cooling off the West, well above normal warmth will
then surge across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, bringing at least
a few days of summerlike heat. High temperatures are expected to soar well
into the 80s and 90s the next couple of days, with a few places across
eastern Montana possibly nearing 100 degrees, especially on Tuesday. This
early season unseasonably hot weather will have the potential to be
hazardous, especially for people who have not yet acclimated to hotter
temperatures yet this year. As a result, WPC's HeatRisk is forecast to
climb to moderate levels for a large portion of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest, with parts of eastern Montana and western North Dakota
possibly eclipsing major levels of HeatRisk. A cold front may spark a few
showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday afternoon, but this is unlikely to
bring much in the way of relief from the heat.


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php