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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0735Z Apr 13, 2021)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 335 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 13 2021 - 12Z Thu Apr 15 2021 ...A slow-moving storm will bring widespread snows to the Great Basin and central Rockies, with heavy accumulations for the mountains... ...Strong to severe storms, including damaging winds, large-hail and heavy rain are expected for portions of eastern Texas and Louisiana... ...Critical Fire Weather conditions are expected across portions of the Southwest... A slow-moving area of low pressure will continue to produce widespread precipitation across the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, including some late-season accumulating snows from Montana to the Upper Great Lakes. Precipitation is expected to continue through Tuesday before diminishing from west to east across the Plains as the system moves east on Wednesday. As the system moves east, scattered precipitation will begin to develop across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday, with organized heavier precipitation forecast to develop over the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Thursday morning. A slow-moving frontal boundary to the south, interacting with increasing moisture, is expected to encourage shower and thunderstorm development across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is the potential that some of these storms may become strong to severe, especially across eastern Texas and Louisiana. In addition to concerns for large hail and damaging winds, these storms may also produce heavy rainfall amounts. Given the high stream flows and saturated soils due to recent heavy rains across the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast, the threat for additional heavy rains will also likely lead to increasing flooding concerns across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the lead system over the Midwest drifts east, a second slow-moving system will develop over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and sink slowly southward into the northern Great Basin by Wednesday. Increasing precipitation coverage across the Great Basin and Rockies will include late-season snows the region. Snow developing on Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday into Thursday is expected to result in heavy accumulations for portions of the region, including the central and to southeastern Wyoming ranges, as well as the central Colorado and northern Utah ranges. In contrast to the wet conditions along the central Gulf Coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, dry conditions, low relative humidities and gusty winds will support an Elevated to Critical Fire Weather Threat over the Southwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings will be in effect on Tuesday for a significant portion of the California deserts, southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and southern Utah. Pereira Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php