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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1951Z Feb 22, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 251 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Valid 00Z Sat Feb 23 2019 - 00Z Mon Feb 25 2019 ...HIGH Risk of excessive rainfall through Saturday morning across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... ...Thunderstorms will continue into Saturday for the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, with severe weather likely... ...Heavy snow ongoing in the Four Corners region will spread into the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest, with freezing rain and high winds likely as well... Plentiful amounts of moisture will continue streaming into the southeastern U.S. through the first half of the weekend. This along with a quasi-stationary front that will eventually lift north as a warm front is expected to continue producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across the south central and southeastern U.S. The biggest concern tonight will be for heavy rain in parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys--here, soils are already over saturated and flooding is occurring, so there is a High Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding in those areas. Any additional rain through Saturday night will cause more dangerous flooding. Another concern Saturday will be severe weather across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The Storm Prediction Center has currently outlooked an Enhanced Risk of severe weather for eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and southwestern Tennessee. The rain is expected to finally end on Saturday night after a cold front sweeps through the region, drying out the atmosphere. A strong upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the Southern Rockies early Saturday morning and into the Plains by Saturday afternoon. At the surface, a low pressure system will slowly move across the Southwest Friday night, then rapidly through the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday while strengthening. The cold temperatures and the lift (rising motion of the air) in association with these features will create more winter weather. Snowfall intensity will increase from western Kansas to southern and eastern Nebraska and into southwest Iowa during the day Saturday with around 6 inches of snow forecast over western Kansas and 2 to 6 inches across southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa by Saturday evening. Snow and wind will increase from Iowa northeastward to Wisconsin through Saturday night with travel becoming hazardous in these areas. By Sunday morning, snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches are expected in a swath from central Iowa to the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. As the storm continues to intensify over the Great Lakes, and even after accumulating snow ends across the Plains and Upper Midwest, high winds will contribute to considerable blowing and drifting snow through Sunday. Near blizzard to blizzard conditions will be possible across portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest. Travel will remain difficult and scattered power outages will also be possible. The high winds will shift to the northern Appalachians and Northeast by Sunday afternoon. In the Northwest, the wintry pattern continues as another upper low is expected to drop southward through the region and lead to moderate to heavy precipitation through the weekend. Though mainly rain along the Pacific Northwest coast, snow could mix in even in the lower elevation cities (Seattle and Portland for example) with the persistent cold conditions. Where rain does fall, it could be heavy at times, with total rainfall amounts reaching upwards of 5 inches through Sunday evening. The higher elevations of the Cascades could see 1 to 2 feet of snow, with moderate to heavy snow in the Northern Great Basin as well. Temperatures will remain colder than average in the western half of the CONUS. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php