Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 00Z Wed May 20 2026 - 00Z Fri May 22 2026

...Severe weather and flash flooding threats will exist across portions of
the Southern Plains and Ohio Valley later today through tonight, and
become potentially more focused over the Texas Hill Country on Wednesday...

...An early-season heatwave will challenge high temperature records across
the Eastern U.S. through Wednesday...

...Below normal temperatures to overspread the Southern Plains, Midwest
and gradually the Northeast U.S. over the next couple of days...

As an ejecting upper-level trough crosses the Upper Midwest going through
this evening, a slow-moving cold front with multiple waves of low pressure
along it will continue to gradually settle south and east across the
southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley region. However, the northern
portion of this cold front will be more progressive as it crosses the
Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley. This will bring regional threats of
severe weather and flash flooding.

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a Slight Risk for severe weather
(level 2 of 5) across portions of central Texas and the Ohio Valley
through western New York. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main
hazards associated with this as heavy showers and thunderstorms develop.
However, there will be a corresponding threat for flash flooding across
some of these same areas, and the Weather Prediction Center has indicated
a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall. The areas where
rainfall will generally be heaviest and more concentrated will be down
across areas of central Texas (including portions of the Hill Country) and
up into the Arklatex region going through tonight. By Wednesday into
Thursday, this cold front will have settled well to the south and become
stalled across the far southern Plains through portions of the Mid-South.
There will continue to be areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms, and a
threat for severe weather and potential flash flooding will continue,
especially near the Texas Hill Country on Wednesday. Farther to the north
and east, the front will clear the Northeast and eventually stall across
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday.

A rather cool area of high pressure will advance from the Midwest and
through the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next couple of days behind
this front. This will gradually help break an ongoing heatwave along the
Eastern Seaboard as a Bermuda High offshore of the East Coast gradually
weakens. Very hot temperatures for May though will continue at least
through Wednesday along the I-95 corridor with high temperatures reaching
the mid-90s for several major metropolitan areas including the
Mid-Atlantic and New England. This will likely break a number of high
temperatures records. However, behind the cold front, a much colder
airmass will send high temperatures below normal by Thursday and this will
likely persist through the end of the week with the aid of clouds and
rainfall. Rainfall overspreading the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and areas
of New England should largely be beneficial as many of these areas are
dealing with an ongoing drought.

Elsewhere, a new upper-level trough and associated cold front should begin
to drop down across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains for the
latter part of the week which will bring a renewed threat for showers and
thunderstorms and generally below normal temperatures. Warmer temperatures
and dry conditions are generally expected along the West Coast, but a few
thunderstorms will be possible over the higher terrain.
 
Orrison

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php