Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 18 2025 - 00Z Mon Oct 20 2025

...Heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms in store across portions
of the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes Saturday into
Sunday...

...Turning colder and unsettled across the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies with coastal and valley rain along with mountain snow...

A deepening low pressure system currently over south central Canada will
continue lifting to the northeast through this evening, with a lingering
frontal boundary draped from the western Great Lakes to the central
Plains. A new wave of low pressure will develop over the Upper Midwest as
the front progresses eastward Saturday into Sunday, which becomes the next
big weather maker from the ArkLaTex and Mid-South to the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage along and ahead of the strong cold front given plenty of moisture
and instability to work with. Storms will have the potential to produce
heavy rainfall rates and repeatedly track over the same areas, especially
across parts of northern Arkansas, southern Missouri, and southern
Illinois on Saturday. This combination will lead to possible flash
flooding concerns, as outlined by the Slight Risk issued by the Weather
Prediction Center. In addition to the heavy rain threat, the Storm
Prediction Center is highlighting a Slight Risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms on Saturday across portions of northeast Texas, eastern
Oklahoma, the Ozarks, the lower Ohio Valley and lower Mississippi Valley.
The main hazards to watch for include damaging winds, large hail, and even
a few tornadoes with the strongest storms that develop. The risk for heavy
rain and strong storms shifts to the north and east across the eastern
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Sunday as low
pressure strengthens and the cold front continues marching eastward. In
the wake of the cold front, strong and gusty northwesterly winds will make
for a breezy day across the Midwest on Sunday as a colder air mass filters
into the region.

Elsewhere across the nation, it will be a crisp and cool start to the
weekend for much of the Eastern U.S. with a pristine airmass in place.
Frost and freeze advisories/warnings remain in effect for interior
portions of the Northeast through early Saturday morning. Downwind of the
northern Rockies, high winds will be possible starting Saturday night
across parts of Montana as a strong Pacific storm system approaches from
the west. This fast-moving storm will quickly push across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies later Saturday into Sunday, bringing colder
temperatures, coastal/valley rain, and mountain snow to much of the
region. Dry conditions will continue for all of the southwestern U.S. and
the East Coast states as high pressure continues to govern the overall
weather pattern through Saturday.

Miller/Hamrick


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php