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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2304Z Oct 20, 2019)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 704 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Valid 00Z Mon Oct 21 2019 - 00Z Wed Oct 23 2019 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains... ...Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern High Plains and Southern California... A low pressure system over the Northern Plains will deepen and move northeastward to Lake Superior by Tuesday evening. The associated front will move from the central/southern Plains eastward to the Appalachians and the eastern Gulf Coast by Tuesday. The system will produce rain over parts of the northern/central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday night into Monday morning. The rain moves into the Upper Great Lakes on Monday afternoon into Tuesday while lingering over portions of the Upper Midwest. On the northwest side of the precipitation shield, wet snow may develop overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Overnight Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the front over parts of the southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Severe thunderstorms are possible over this area, with frequent lightning, damaging winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes. The heavy rain associated with these thunderstorms may produce some instances of flash flooding. On the backside of the storm, the system will produce higher elevation snow and valley rain over the northern Rockies through late Sunday night. Critical fire weather conditions are in place across the southern High Plains and southern California. Gusty winds and low humidity will lead to a higher risk of wildfires, and red flag Warnings are in effect. Elsewhere, moist onshore flow off the Pacific will aid in producing rain and high elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest and snow over parts of the Northern Rockies from Sunday evening into Tuesday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at