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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0746Z Sep 28, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 345 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Valid 12Z Thu Sep 28 2023 - 12Z Sat Sep 30 2023 ...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible across parts of the Northeast on Friday... ...Wet weather pattern continues throughout Florida and the Northwest... ...Well above average temperatures expected across the central Plains and parts of the Midwest... Damp and dreary weather is forecast to return to the Northeast by this evening and linger through Friday as an area of low pressure develops offshore. This low pressure system will help a stream elevated atmospheric moisture content from the Atlantic Ocean towards the northern Mid-Atlantic States. After light showers and drizzle overspread much of the region tonight, pockets of heavier rain may develop by Friday morning between New Jersey and western Connecticut. A localized area of enhanced convergence may provide enough lift in the atmosphere to support continuing downpours through much of the day on Friday. Additionally, any instances of potentially heavy rain are not anticipated to move quickly and could linger over the same region for hours. As a result, flash flooding is possible and prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall to be issued from southern New Jersey to southern Connecticut, including the Lower Hudson Valley and Long Island. Urban locations, which are prevalent in this area, will be most prone to rapid water rises and flooding concerns. Residents and visitors are advised to remain weather aware and never drive through flooded roadways. Farther south along a slow moving frontal boundary draped across the Florida Peninsula, daily shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to continue through at least the beginning of the weekend. The main weather hazards associated with the developing thunderstorms will be frequent lighting and heavy rain. Intense rainfall rates could lead to localized flooding concerns, mainly over urban corridors, which is highlighted by a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall. Pockets of unsettled weather are also in the forecast over the next few days over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, Upper Midwest, Northwest, and southern High Plains. Starting in the Northwest, a deep upper trough diving into the West Coast by Saturday will allow for showers to become more widespread after days of scattered rain chances. Cool temperatures and precipitation should span from central California through the Intermountain West and northern Great Basin. The highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada, northern Cascades, and northwest Montana could see accumulating snowfall as upper level temperatures cool to around freezing. Meanwhile, one more day of wet weather conditions is anticipated over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys today as a weakening low pressure system and stationary front linger over the region. A few storms could overlap and contain heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding for Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Localized flooding concerns are also in the forecast on Friday across central/northern Minnesota and Saturday over eastern New Mexico and Wet Texas as robust thunderstorms cross these parts of the country. Outside of the cooler conditions located throughout the West, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, a majority of the Nation will see well above average temperatures build into the beginning of the weekend. The warmest temperature anomalies are expected to be found across the central Plains and parts of Midwest. High temperatures here are forecast to reach into the 80s and low 90s, which equates to around 20 degrees above climatology for late-September. Afternoon highs into the 80s and 90s will also stretch into the middle and lower Mississippi valleys, as well as the Southern Plains. Snell Graphics available at