Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 02 2024 - 12Z Sun Aug 04 2024

...A dangerous heat wave will impact much of the East Coast, Southeast and
Northwest through tonight...

...Excessive Rainfall concerns across portions of the Eastern U.S. this
weekend...

...Monsoonal storms continue across the Southwest/Four Corners through the
weekend...


A familiar upper-level pattern over the lower 48, with ridging in the West
and troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee Valley, will support
heat waves and excessive rainfall concerns this weekend. High temperatures
in the 100s will represent a 10-15 degree positive anomaly across the
Northwest today. Some of these temperatures will tie or break records.
Overnight temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s will tie or break
widespread temperature records across the West tonight as well. The
combination of very hot daytime conditions and a lack of overnight relief
could harm those without adequate shelter or hydration. Cloudy conditions
will support near record breaking warmth over portions of the coastal
Northeast and Florida peninsula tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front moving through
the Midwest today and spread eastward toward the East Coast. Slight Risks
of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding are in effect for portions
of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast today due to the
higher rates within some of the storms that move through those areas.
Orographic lift over portions of the Central/Southern Appalachians will
promote additional Flash Flooding concerns, hence another Slight Risk area
for parts of eastern Tennessee, southeastern Kentucky, southwestern
Virginia, western North Carolina and northern Alabama/Georgia. The cold
front slows down across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Saturday and becomes
the focus for additional Excessive Rainfall concerns, due in part to a
significant moisture plume from the Tropics. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in effect for portions of southeastern Virginia down into the
Carolina/Georgia Piedmont.

A tropical disturbance is forecast to impact the Florida Peninsula
beginning late tonight when heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are supposed
to spread across southern Florida and eventually work their way up the
peninsula on Saturday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect
for portions of southern Florida on Saturday as a result. Monsoonal
moisture is expected to continue flowing into the Southwest/Four Corners
region this weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may lead to
isolated Flash Flooding across portions of the aforementioned areas,
particularly burn scars and slot canyons.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php