Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 17 2026 - 00Z Sun Jul 19 2026

...Additional excessive rainfall likely across the Texas Hill Country
today, with focus shifting toward the Big Bend on Friday...

...Anomalous heat and humidity persisting across the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest while spreading into the northern Mid-Atlantic...

...Air quality alert from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes into
the Northeast...

...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms persist across the interior western
U.S with greatest flash flooding threat near the southern borders of
Arizona and New Mexico...

...Severe thunderstorms for portions of western Montana today; strong
thunderstorms possible for northern New England today...


As the anomalous upper high prolong a heatwave across the northern states,
a slow-moving weather regime continues across the southern tier states
where a stationary front remains from the Southern Plains to the
Southeast.  An upper-level low has migrated westward into the southern
High Plains to support a renewed round of heavy thunderstorms across the
Texas Hill Country. A continuous stream of Gulf moisture will interact
with the upper low bringing additional rainfall amounts of 6-8" with
locally 10+ inches today as these heavy thunderstorm clusters generally
track northward from the Texas Hill Country through central Texas. There
is ongoing flooding occurring across the region and any additional
rainfall will likely exacerbate the situation. The focus of the heavy
rainfall is expected to shift toward the Big Bend area, and possibly be
confined to western Texas by Saturday morning.

Hot and humid conditions expected to persist across the Great Lake and
Northern Plains for several days. Daily highs will climb into the 90s to
lower 100s. For New England, cooler air will punch into the region on the
backside of the cold front. This cooler air will be reinforced as a
secondary cold front approaches the region Friday. Smoke from Canadian
wildfires will also will streaming into the northeastern quarter of the
country. Meanwhile, another day of triple-digit high temperatures and
elevated humidity is expected for the northern Mid-Atlantic before
readings drop slightly into the 90s on Friday.  Some strong thunderstorms
are possible later today across northern New England prior to the arrival
of the second cold front.

In the western U.S., severe thunderstorms are possible later today across
western Montana on the backside of a low pressure wave near the western
end of the front.  Meanwhile, monsoonal thunderstorms are forecast to
track from north to south across the Four Corners region today under the
influence of the upper low over the southern High Plains.  The greatest
flash flooding threat is expected to be near the southern borders of
Arizona and New Mexico for the next couple of days.  More monsoonal
showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Intermountain West into
the eastern portion of the Great Basin.

Scattered thunderstorms will be lifting farther north into the
Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys later today as the stationary front
gradually dissipates.  The frontal wave over the northern High Plains will
reach the central Great Lakes by Saturday morning.  Scattered strong
thunderstorms can be expected mainly across the upper Great Lakes on
Friday, shifting to the lower Great Lakes by Saturday morning as the
frontal wave moves eastward.

Kong/Campbell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php