Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 00Z Sat Feb 21 2026

...Very active weather pattern across much of the Lower 48 over the next
few days...

...The lead winter storm will be winding down across the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Great Lakes Wednesday night, while the next storm begins to deepen
Thursday over the Central Plains and moves northeast into the Upper Lakes
Friday...

...An elevated to critical fire weather threat will continue across the
Southern Plains...

...Active West coast pattern continues with additional heavy low
elevations rains across California and additional heavy snows through the
Sierra...

...Much above average temperature likely through the Mississippi, Ohio,
Tennessee Valleys, Southeast and Florida, while below average temperatures
stretch from the Northern Plains, west southwest across all of the West...


An overall very active weather pattern will be affecting large portions of
the Lower 48 over the next few days with several well defined storms
affecting the Central to Eastern U.S., while another storm system drops
into California.  The lead winter storm that produced high winds across
the Rockies and Plains, along with heavy snows over the Colorado Rockies
and across the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Lakes
will be winding down Wednesday night into early Thursday over the Upper
Lakes region.  Any additional accumulating snows confined to northern
Wisconsin into the western portions of the U.P. of Michigan early tonight.
 In the wake of this system, another storm is expected to develop over the
Central Plains Thursday and move northeastward into the Upper Lakes region
by Friday.  Heavy snows are possible from northeast Wyoming, across
northern Nebraska, northwest Iowa, southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin
into the western U.P. of Michigan and the Arrowhead of Minnesota with this
next system.  Foot plus snow totals were observed in the Arrowhead of
Minnesota from the first strong low, with additional 6-12" possible across
this area with the second storm.  Snow totals in excess of 6" also
possible with this second storm across the western U.P. of Michigan,
northern Nebraska and portions of northeast Wyoming.

In addition to the winter weather threat from this next deepening storm, 
thunderstorms are likely to develop Thursday evening into Thursday night
from the Ohio Valley, eastward into the Mid-Atlantic in association with
the frontal boundaries emanating from this next storm.  Severe
thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley region Thursday evening
into Thursday night with large hail and high winds the greatest severe
weather threat, with tornadoes a lower threat. 

To the south of the snow and thunderstorm threat from this next storm, dry
conditions and gusty winds will continue to support an elevated to
critical fire weather threat across large portions of the Southern Plains
Thursday and Friday.  Red Flag warnings are currently in effect for much
of New Mexico, far Southwest Texas and from southeast Colorado/southwest
Kansas, across the TX/OK Panhandle, much of Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas and large portions of Missouri.

The series of storms affecting California will continue with the arrival
of the next system pushing east southeastward off the eastern Pacific and
into central to northern California early Thursday.  Additional lower
elevation rains likely from coastal Oregon, south along all of the
California coast, while additional heavy snow is likely from the higher
elevations of Northern California, southeast through the Sierra.  Portions
of the Sierra have received 4 to 5+ feet of snow over the past few days,
with additional accumulations of 1 to 2 feet likely from this next storm. 

Temperature wise, big contrasts expected west to east across the Lower 48
over the next few days.  Below average temperatures likely for all areas
from the Rockies to the West Coast, including the Northern Plains.  In
contrast. much above average temperatures are expected through the
Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Lower Lakes, Central to Southern
Appalachians, Southeast and Florida.  In these regions, record high
temperatures are possible Thursday into Friday from the Lower Mississippi
Valley, TN Valley, Southeast and central to northern Florida.  Record low
maximum temperatures are again possible Thursday for portions of the
Interior Valleys of California.

Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php