Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 06 2025 - 12Z Mon Sep 08 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern
Mid-Atlantic...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday...

...There are Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Northwest and Northern
Rockies, along with Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings over parts of the
Upper Midwest...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley and
then across parts of the Southern Plains will move eastward to off the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast, across the Southeast to the Gulf Coast
States by Monday. Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the boundary over parts of the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic through
Sunday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall
over parts of the Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northeast through
Sunday morning.  The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Along the front, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, southern Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Showers and rain will develop over parts
of the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Additionally,
upper-level energy moving over the Great Lakes will produce scattered
showers over parts of the Midwest through Sunday. Furthermore, a weak
front lingering over Florida will produce showers and thunderstorms
through Sunday. Upper-level energy and ample moisture will produce rain
and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains on Sunday into Monday.

Moreover, monsoonal moisture, diurnal heating, and upper-level impulses
will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Southwest, the Great
Basin, the Central/Southern Rockies, and southwestern Texas through
Sunday. Due to an area of cold high pressure moving over parts of the
Upper Midwest, producing cold temperatures over the region, Frost
Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been issued. Elsewhere, rain showers
will develop over parts of the Northwest through Monday.  Furthermore,
smoke from wildfires has prompted Air Quality Alerts over parts of the
Northwest and Northern Rockies.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php