Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 01 2025 - 00Z Thu Jul 03 2025

...An active summer time thunderstorm pattern for much of the southern and
eastern CONUS next few days, while dry conditions expected across the West
into the north central U.S...

...Much above average temperatures across the West Tuesday and from the
Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains on
Wednesday, but no record highs expected...

...Below average temperatures for the Southern High Plains and Southeast...

...Fire weather threats across California and the Great Basin...

An active summer time thunderstorm pattern on tap for large portions of
the nation from the Southern High Plains, eastward across much of the
southern and eastern portions of the nation, focusing along and ahead of
of a slow moving frontal boundary across these areas.  Moisture values in
the vicinity of this front are forecast to remain above average,
supporting heavy rain potential across a large section of the southern and
eastern CONUS.  Flood watches are currently in effect across portions of
the Southern High Plains, western Pennsylvania and far western New York
State.  However, with the potential for widespread thunderstorms and heavy
rains over the next two days across the South and East, localized flash
flooding will be possible, especially in more urbanized regions.  In
addition to the heavy rains and flash flooding threats in this active
thunderstorm pattern, severe weather is also possible with high winds and
large hail the most likely type of severe weather. 

Temperature wise, much above average temperatures expected Tuesday across
the Southwest, Rockies, Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains.  Excessive
heat warnings are currently in effect across southern Arizona and
southeast California, while heat advisories are in effect across portions
of the Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid
Atlantic.  These above average temperatures will continue Wednesday across
the Northern Great Basin, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, with
cooler temperatures expected across the Southwest, Lower Mississippi
Valley and Mid-Atlantic.  Even in regions that will see much above average
temperatures over the next few days, there is not currently expected to be
any record high temperatures.  Much below average temperatures expected
over the Southern High Plains Tuesday and Wednesday where
shower/thunderstorm activity will keep conditions cool.  Below average
temperatures also likely across the southeastern portion of the CONUS the
next few days.

While wet weather is in store for the southern and eastern U.S. over the
next two days, dry weather is likely from the north central U.S., west
across much of the Northern Rockies, Northwest, Great Basin and California
and the Southwest.  These dry conditions will continue to support fire
weather conditions across the West over the next two days, with Red Flag
warnings currently in effect across northern California and the Great
Basin.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php