Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 14 2025 - 00Z Thu Oct 16 2025

...Coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast should taper off overnight
and Tuesday...

...Storm system will bring heavy rain and snow to the West, especially
California...

Coastal flooding is ongoing across portions of the East Coast as a low
pressure system in the western Atlantic brings persistent and strong
onshore winds to coastal regions. This combined with high astronomical
tides could lead to additional beach erosion. Rip currents and high surf
also continue, along with scattered to widespread showers in the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High winds are lessening already as the low
starts to pull away, with only Wind Advisories left for Cape Cod and
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. However, Coastal Flood Warnings and
Advisories continue into this (Monday) evening before expiring as the
potential for hazardous conditions decreases.

A strong upper-level low is forecast to drop south along the West Coast
tonight and push into the Great Basin over the next couple of days, along
with a surface low/frontal system. These features will provide support for
precipitation as ample moisture interacts with them. Marginal (level 1/4)
to Slight Risks (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall causing flash flooding
are in place through Tuesday across parts of California as the moisture
plume makes its way across. The embedded Slight Risks over the Transverse
Range/Peninsular Range of California show areas where heavier rainfall
totals may occur and where burn scars may cause particularly higher risks
of flooding. Isolated severe weather could also occur per the Storm
Prediction Center. Farther inland into the Sierra Nevada, precipitation
should fall as snow in the higher elevations, with 1-2 feet of snow likely
and snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible. Snow levels could fall to
5500-7000 feet in parts of California/Nevada. Some snow is forecast to
spread across the Intermountain West as the low pivots east, along with
lower elevation scattered rain showers on Tuesday and into Wednesday.

Farther east, moist inflow that has some connection with dissipated East
Pacific tropical systems will continue to flow into the Four Corners
states. Through tonight, Slight Risks (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
are in place for southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico and into
southwestern Colorado, with a surrounding Marginal Risk. A Marginal Risk
lingers into Tuesday for additional convection across New Mexico. Isolated
severe weather, especially for high winds and hail, is possible in similar
areas. Elsewhere, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
across the Northern/Central Plains into the Midwest over the next couple
of days.

The upper trough/low out West will lead to much cooler than average
temperatures there. Especially on Tuesday, cool maximum temperatures may
set records across California. Meanwhile warmer temperatures in the 70s
and 80s (locally 90s in Texas) are forecast from the Southern Plains into
the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley by Tuesday, and north
into the central Plains by Wednesday. Cooler than average temperatures in
the East should moderate closer to normal over the next couple of days as
the cloudy and showery weather from the low pulls away.


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php