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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z Oct 18, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Valid 12Z Sat Oct 18 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025 ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms expected to impact portions of the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes later today into Sunday... ...Turning colder and unsettled across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with coastal and valley rain along with mountain snow and gusty winds... An increasingly active weather pattern that signals the emergence of La Nina is forecast for the U.S. through the weekend into early next week. A deepening upper trough and a cold air mass from western Canada force their way eastward to clash with a cold front across the mid-section of the country. The vigorous dynamics associated with this interaction is forecast to produce a rapidly intensifying low pressure system to track from the Midwest tonight and then through the Great Lakes Sunday morning. A potent cold front trailing south from the cyclone center will be preceded by an outbreak of severe weather across much of the mid to lower Mississippi Valley from later today through tonight per the Storm Prediction Center. The main hazards to watch for will include damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes with the strongest storms that develop. In addition, thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates especially across parts of northern Arkansas, southern Missouri, and southern Illinois by later today into tonight. The relative fast forward motion of the cold front will help limit the total rainfall amounts. Nevertheless, the high rain rates associated with the severe thunderstorms are expected to warrant a Slight Risk of flash flooding across portions of southern Missouri into southern Illinois through tonight. Elsewhere, intense downpours can be expected to accompany thunderstorms that are expected to become severe across the lower Mississippi Valley and as far north as the lower Great Lakes by this evening into the overnight hours. By Sunday night, the center of the rapidly intensifying cyclone with quickly exit into southern Canada. However, the potent cold front trailing south from the cyclone will sweep across the east-central U.S. and the Deep South with a round to possibly several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. Meanwhile, a swath of moderate to locally heavy rain will accompany the passage of the cyclone across the Great Lakes on Sunday. From Sunday night into Monday morning, a squall line could be sweeping through the entire East Coast with a round of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. By Monday morning, the most active weather should be found across New England where strong thunderstorms could be sweeping across as a new low pressure system begins to develop. Behind the rapidly intensifying cyclone in the East, strong and gusty northwesterly winds will make for a breezy day across the mid-section of the country on Sunday as a colder air mass from Canada filters into the region. However, a rapid warm-up is forecast for the High Plains on Sunday, spreading into the southern Plains by Monday ahead of another rapidly developing low pressure system that will sweep across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday and into the northern Plains by Monday morning. This system will signal the arrival of unsettled weather beginning today through the weekend for the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday, high-elevation snow is expected to push further inland across Idaho and then through the northern Rockies Sunday night into Monday morning along with gusty winds. Meanwhile, the Southwest and the Four Corners will remain dry with a gradual warming trend. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php