Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 24 2025 - 00Z Tue Aug 26 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast, the Central/Southern Rockies, and the Southwest on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Sierra
Nevada Mountains, Central/Southern High Plains, and Great Basin on
Sunday...

...There are Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories along the West
Coast and just inland...

A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Southern Plains will advance eastward to the Eastern Seaboard and
then to the Gulf Coast and into the Southern Plains by Monday.  The front
will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
and rain in parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast
into the Central Appalachians on Sunday, and the Northeast on Monday.
Additionally, rain with isolated thunderstorms is expected to develop over
the Great Lakes on Monday.

A second front over the Southeast will linger through Sunday morning and
then move out over the Western Atlantic. The boundary will ignite showers
and thunderstorms over the Southeast and along most of the Gulf Coast,
with heavy rain over the Southeast through Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southeast
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Moreover, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the Central/Southern
Appalachians on Saturday afternoon. Additionally, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central/Southern
Appalachians, the Southeast, and along parts of the Gulf Coast on Sunday.
Isolated areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
parts of the Gulf Coast on Monday.

In addition, monsoonal moisture, diurnal heating, and upper-level impulses
will produce showers and thunderstorms over Central/Southern California,
the Southwest, the Great Basin, the Central/Southern Rockies, and the
Central High Plains on Saturday. Heavy rain will develop over parts of the
Central/Southern Rockies and a second area over parts of the Southwest on
Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the Central/Southern Rockies, as well as the
Southwest, through Sunday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Central/Southern
California, the Southwest, the Great Basin, the Central/Southern Rockies,
and the Central/Southern High Plains on Sunday. Heavy rain will develop
over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, a second over the parts of the
Great Basin, and a third over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. 
Therefore, the WPC has issued multiple areas for Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall over the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Great Basin, and
Central/Southern High Plains from Sunday into Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.

For Monday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts
of Oregon, interior California, the Great Basin, the Southwest, and the
Central/Southern Rockies, as well as the Central/Southern High Plains.
Heavy rain will develop over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains on
Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the Central/Southern High Plains on Monday. The
associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.

Another area of showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains with heavy rain on Monday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the
Central/Southern Plains on Monday. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, an upper-level high over the Southwest into the
Central/Southern Rockies will aid in creating a heat wave across much of
the Western U.S. through the weekend, with the most intense and
long-lasting heat across the Desert Southwest into the San Joaquin Valley.
Extreme Heat Warnings and Watches are in effect from portions of Arizona
through Washington State. This type of heat will be dangerous, posing a
threat to anyone without effective cooling and adequate hydration.
Numerous daily high temperature records are likely to be broken. For many
areas, there will be little nighttime relief from the extreme heat, with
overnight lows remaining well above normal. Numerous nighttime temperature
records are likely. Extreme heat is dangerous even at night when
temperatures do not cool down. Without air conditioning or cooling, the
body cannot recover, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses.

Stay informed and take steps to protect yourself from heat-related
illnesses. For information on staying cool and safe, visit
www.weather.gov/safety/heat. As temperatures rise, limit outdoor activity,
stay hydrated, and ensure access to air-conditioning and other cooling
areas.


Ziegenfelder






Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php