Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 17 2025 - 00Z Wed Nov 19 2025

...A round of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to reach northern
California tonight before spreading into coastal southern California with
additional flash flooding and landslide concerns on Monday...

...Wintry mix and wet snow across northern New York, Great Lakes, interior
New England, the Sierra Nevada, and portions of the northern and central
Rockies with 6-12 inches possible in the higher elevations....

...Well above normal to record-breaking warmth across Texas into early
next week...

Following a day of trenching rainfall across central and southern
California, the low pressure system responsible for the inclement weather
is weakening and moving farther inland.  However, the next round of
significant rainfall is on the horizon as the next frontal system in the
Pacific is scheduled to reach northern California tonight with a low
pressure center developing along the front.  While the moisture associated
this system appears not as robust as the one that has just impacted
central and southern California, moderate to heavy rain can fall in
earnest as it quickly spreads inland across northern California followed
by central California through tonight.  The moderate to heavy rain is
forecast to progress eastward ahead of the cold front and reach the same
areas in southern California impacted by the previous heavy rainfall,
renewing concerns for additional flash flooding and landslides there. 
This is especially true around burn scars, coastal mountain ranges, and
areas compromised by the previous storm.  The Weather Prediction Center
has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in effect to account for the
possible impacts.  Meanwhile, the central Sierra Nevada can expect 6-12+
inches of wet snow from this system.  On Tuesday, central Arizona into
southwestern Utah will likely see increasing chances for heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding as the system moves eastward.

A deepening cyclone moving through the Northeast tonight will set the
stage for winter weather impacts, mostly confined to the Great Lakes and
interior New England.  Wrap-around moisture is forecast to bring enhanced
snowfall downwind from the lower Great Lakes and to the Adirondacks,
Green, and White mountain ranges.  The higher elevations of northern
Vermont could receive the highest snowfall accumulations between 6-12
inches.  Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect
across portions of the region.  The cold front trailing from the deepening
cyclone is forecast to sweep across the eastern U.S. and then out into the
Atlantic, resulting in widespread blustery winds and colder air into the
Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic and especially the Great Lakes through the
next couple of days.

By Monday night into Tuesday, the lake-effect snows are forecast to
gradually taper off.  Another low pressure system is then forecast to
develop over the central Plains on Monday and move into the Midwest on
Tuesday.  This system will likely bring scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms across the Midwest ahead of a warm front on Tuesday.  Some
more scattered showers are expected farther north across the northern
Plains on Monday, moving into portions of the upper Midwest on Tuesday. 
In addition, portions of the upper Midwest could see a period of wet snow
Tuesday morning near the northern edge of this low pressure system.

From snow to record warmth, Texas and the southern Plains will remain
rather toasty for November as numerous cities will challenge or break
daily record high temperatures topping the upper 80s across major Texas
metros to the 90s across the Rio Grande.  This is courtesy of strong
mid-level ridging over the area.  The warm temperatures look to persist
into midweek and spread eastward towards the South by the latter half of
the week.

Lastly, there will be some remaining fire weather concerns across the
Mid-Atlantic region late this afternoon before cooler air arrives behind
the cold front.

Kong/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php