Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 30 2025 - 00Z Tue Dec 02 2025

...Major winter storm over the central/northern Plains will spread
eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes region this weekend with
widespread heavy snowfall and hazardous travel conditions...

...Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will focus along the
western Gulf Coast this weekend with locally heavy rainfall possible...

...A wintry pattern bringing well below average, chilly temperatures to
much of the eastern and central U.S....

A upper-level shortwave trough over the Great Basin into the Central
Rockies continues to dip further into Northern CONUS tonight bringing more
winter-like weather over the next few days. The storm over the
Central/Northern Plains that carries bands of heavy snow, will continue to
move eastward over into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest tonight. As
this upper-wave emerges over the Plains, lee cyclogenesis will help to
deepen/organize a low pressure system that will lift northeastward from
the central Plains into the Midwest, continuing to support a broad area of
heavy snow spreading eastward into the Great Lakes region. In addition,
the cold front that drapes across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin will
push southward, supporting chances for low-level showers and
high-elevation snow tonight as well as an increased chance for snowfall
over the Central Rockies/Great Basin into the Mississippi Valley Sunday
through Monday. Snowfall rates exceeding 1-2"/hour are expected with
snowfall totals between 6-12". Several states and regions are under Winter
Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings. The combination of heavy
snow rates along with gusty winds will create dangerous travel conditions
due to limited visibility and snow-covered roadways. The snow should taper
off from west to east heading into Sunday morning. 

The surface low over the Upper Mid-West continues to move southeastward,
pushing the cold front into the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley by this evening. As the moisture from the Gulf interacts with the
cold front, chances for moderate to locally heavy rainfall will increase
for parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Weather Prediction Center has
highlighted a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for east-central Texas for
excessive rainfall with chances for isolated flash flooding. In addition,
Storm Prediction has also highlighted a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for
severe thunderstorms over the east-central/southeast Texas area. As the
front continues northeastward, expect scattered showers with lower chances
for heavy downpours and severe thunderstorms, due to less instability in
the upper-levels and less moisture from the Gulf. In addition, as the
front interact with colder air over the Interior Northeast and New
England, expect some wintry mix into Monday.

The upper-level troughing will push the series of cold fronts across the
central and eastern U.S. over the next few days bringing below average
temperatures, with max temperatures forecasted to reach 10-25 degrees
below normal. The next cold front pressing southward through the Plains
will bring highs as low as the single digits for the northern High Plains
on Sunday, with 20s and 30s into the northern and central Plains and
eastward into the Midwest/Mississippi Valley through Monday. After the
frontal passage moves through Texas today, temperatures will drop from the
70s/80s to 30s/40s. Gusty winds with the front will lead to wind chills in
the teens and 20s Sunday morning as far south as north Texas. Southerly
flow ahead of the next approaching system will bring a brief warm up for
southeastern coastal locations on Sunday as highs climb into the 60s.
Temperatures will remain relatively warmer over the western U.S. with
highs around or a bit above seasonal averages.

Oudit/Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php