Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 05 2025 - 00Z Fri Nov 07 2025

...Unsettled weather for the Northwest & Northern California, with a
threat for flash flooding Wednesday and Thursday from northern California
to the Olympic Mountains...

...A potent clipper system will move through the Northeast tomorrow into
Thursday, bringing the threat for thunderstorms, strong winds, and high
elevation snow...

...The central part of the country will see mostly above average
temperatures prevail...

An atmospheric river is starting to bring rain across the West Coast this
afternoon, but should begin to pick up in impacts for the northern
California coastline by tomorrow as the area of low pressure nears. A
Flood Watch is active for parts of the Eureka WFO as rainfall totals in
the 4-6 inch range could result in excessive water run-off from
rivers/poor drainage. Washington State will see plumes of
moisture/rainfall on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday as the AR continues.
There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall across both the Olympic
Mountains and north California/southern Oregon Wednesday and Thursday in
summary. The other hazard with the low pressure system/AR will be the
strong winds. High Wind Warnings are in effect from coastal zones of
northern California and southern Oregon, as well as interior mountain
ranges. Some power outages could occur as sustained winds in the 25-25 mph
range, gusting to 60-70 on the high end, are in the forecast. Also, the
Storm Prediction Center does have a Marginal Risk across No Cal/ OR
Wednesday for low topped convection that could contain isolated hail, a
spin-up tornado/water-spout, and severe criteria wind gusts.

A swift moving cold front will traverse the Northeast late Wednesday
afternoon and early Thursday. There will be limited convection with the
front, but any thunderstorms that do develop may bring damaging winds to
the surface. Therefore, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for the threat of
severe criteria wind gusts. Synoptic winds may also be rather gusty, and
weather offices across the Northeast have High Wind Watches and Advisories
active. Power outages will be possible. Cold air advection on the backside
of the low pressure will bring some snowfall late Wednesday across the
mountain ranges in the Northeast such as the Green, White, and the
Adirondacks. There were moderate probabilities of around 4 inches in the
mountain ranges of New England and lesser amounts in the Adirondacks.

The central part of the country, particularly the southern Plains, will
see above average temperatures prevail into Friday. A weak cold front will
move though the Midwest and Plains on Wednesday, but ridging will quickly
build back into the region ahead of a forming western trough. For high
temperatures, the southern Plains will be in the middle to upper 80s for
the work week, which is around 10-15 degrees warmer than average for the
time of the year. The central Plains may dip into the upper 50s tomorrow
behind the cold front, but temperatures should rebound into the 60s and
low 70s for Thursday into Friday. The Southeast will generally remain mild
in the middle to upper 70s as the air mass modifies under post-frontal
high pressure.


Wilder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php