Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 27 2025 - 12Z Fri Aug 29 2025

...Scattered areas of flash flooding remain possible in and near Idaho
Wednesday...

...Heavy rainfall with flash flood potential slated for portions of the
southern & central Plains towards the Mid-South through Thursday...

...Above-normal temperatures persist across the Northwest; below-average
temperatures expected for much of the remaining contiguous U.S.....

On Wednesday, storms are expected to be more isolated in the Southwest,
Great Basin, and Sierra Nevada. However, an upper-level disturbance will
bring more widespread activity and a higher risk of heavy rain and flash
flooding across the northern Intermountain West and northern Rockies.  On
Thursday and Friday, the risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding
continues to wane across the Great Basin and Rockies and ridging aloft
slowly builds.  Temperatures will be above average again today, but the
upper-level system and increased cloud cover will help alleviate the
ongoing heatwave in the Northwest and northern Intermountain West where
especially warm overnight temperatures (getting no lower than the 60s to
lower 70s) should persist through Wednesday night.

A series of disturbances from the western U.S. will interact with moisture
spreading through the southern Plains, producing storms with heavy
rainfall and scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding over the
central Rockies and High Plains Wednesday and Thursday which spread east
through Kansas into northwest Arkansas on Wednesday and shift into the
vicinity of Arkansas on Thursday.  Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" would be
especially problematic in urban areas.  By Friday, thunderstorms with
heavy rain across the High Plains and near the Gulf Coast are expected to
be no more than an isolated flash flood concern.

Apart from the Northwest and the Gulf Coast states, daytime temperatures
are expected to be seasonal to below average across much of the contiguous
U.S as upper level troughing remains featured east of the Rockies. 
Forecast to dip more than 15 degrees below average in some spots,
particularly where it is raining persistently across portions of Kansas
and Arkansas Wednesday and Thursday and in the vicinity of Ohio on Friday.
 Record lows are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic,
and Northeast Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
   
Roth/Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php