Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Valid 12Z Wed May 29 2024 - 12Z Fri May 31 2024

...Active central U.S. weather pattern to continue, with heavy rains,
flash flooding, and severe weather possible...

...Anomalous heat continues across far southern Texas and Florida, while
hot temperatures begin to build in the Southwest and interior California
Valleys...

The active and stormy weather pattern impacting the central U.S. is set to
continue over the next few days while also expanding in coverage to
include much of the Great Plains, middle and lower Mississippi Valley. For
today, a cold front progressing across the Northern Rockies and central
Great Basin in response to a Northwest upper trough will help spark
numerous thunderstorms into the northern Plains and parts of the central
High Plains. A few scattered storms could contain intense rainfall rates,
hail, and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible along
a lingering stationary front extending along the Gulf Coast and southern
Plains, which have greater chances of producing instances of flash
flooding due to thunderstorms overlapping with saturated ground
conditions. As upper troughing enters the Great Plains on Thursday, even
more rounds of slow-moving tumultuous thunderstorm clusters are
anticipated. This leads to a broad region at risk for hail, damaging
winds, and flash flooding from Kansas and eastern Colorado to
north-central Texas. This activity is then forecast to gradually slide
eastward on Friday to impact the ArkLaTex region, as well as extending
into the mid-Mississippi Valley and southern Plains once again. Flash
flooding will remain a concern due to the relatively slow-moving nature of
thunderstorms occurring within a moisture rich environment. Widespread
areal-averaged rainfall totals by the end of the week are forecast to add
up to over 2 inches throughout much of Kansas, Oklahoma, northern Texas,
southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana, with localized amounts over 4
inches possible.

Simmering heat is expected to continue for much of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula as highs reach into the mid-90s, which may
tied/break daily record highs today. Highs also returning to the upper 90s
are forecast along the Rio Grande Valley of southern Texas after early
morning thunderstorms. However, a larger area of hot weather will begin to
build throughout the Southwest and interior California valleys by the end
of the week. Afternoon temperatures into the upper 90s and triple digits
can be expected.

Elsewhere, high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to the Southeast
will keep most areas east of the Mississippi River dry with the exception
of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast today. A compact storm
system will be swinging eastward over the Mid-Atlantic and produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The main weather hazards associated
with these storms are forecast to be associated with lighting and locally
heavy rain.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php