Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 31 2025 - 00Z Tue Sep 02 2025

...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected from the Gulf Coast to the
Plains and southern Rockies this weekend with some potential for flash
flooding...

...Dry conditions with seasonal to below-average temperatures remaining
across much of the Eastern U.S. through the holiday weekend...

...Heat builds across the Western U.S. after a reprieve from recent
monsoonal rains...

A stalled frontal boundary stretching from southern Texas along the Gulf
Coast will remain the focus for showers and thunderstorms through the
remainder of the long holiday weekend. With a very moist atmosphere in
place, storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates, and the
potential for repeated development raises concerns for isolated to
scattered flash flooding. The flash flooding risk is expected to be
highest from southeastern New Mexico into eastern Texas this evening and
overnight, before expanding farther south across Texas and southwest into
southern New Mexico on Sunday. By Monday, this threat should begin to
diminish as the front settles farther south and drier air moves into the
region.

Farther north, a slow-moving upper-level disturbance will trigger showers
and thunderstorms across the central Plains this evening and overnight.
This system will shift very slowly east into the mid to lower Missouri
Valley on Sunday and continue through Monday. Due to its slow pace and the
potential for repeated rounds of rain over the same areas, there is an
ongoing concern for isolated to scattered flash flooding. Cloud cover and
widespread rain will also help suppress daytime temperatures, which are
expected to remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal across parts of the
central Plains and Missouri Valley this weekend.

Across the Ohio Valley and along much of the East Coast north of Florida,
high pressure will remain in control through the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. As a result, conditions will stay dry, with
temperatures near or slightly below seasonal averages for much of the
eastern third of the Lower 48.

In contrast, the western U.S. will see a warming trend, with above-normal
temperatures expanding across the region. Temperatures are expected to
increase to well-above normal across parts of the interior Northwest, with
daytime highs approaching or exceeding record values across parts of
eastern Washington and northern Idaho by Monday. Outside of the Southwest
- where the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase early in
the week - most of the West will remain dry through the period.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php