Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025

...Heavy to Excessive Rainfall likely across portions of the Plains,
Midwest, and East into Monday...

...Heatwave continues for the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies with
highs reaching the 110s...

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms from the Rockies to the
East Coast around the periphery of a slow-moving deep layer cyclone will
be the primary cause of hazards through Monday.  Otherwise, an upper
trough remains over the Northwest and ridging strengthens across New
Mexico and adjacent portions of the West.  A deep layer cyclone will drift
eastward from the Midwest towards the Appalachians, and near the surface
low and its attendant fronts will be numerous showers and thunderstorms
within an anomalously moist air mass. This sets the stage for flash
flooding and severe weather.  Portions of Virginia and North Carolina, as
well as the southern Plains, central Plains, and Midwest, will be a focus
for both hazards this weekend while across portions of the Northern Plains
and High Plains, severe weather is the larger concern through Monday as a
disturbance aloft is ejected eastward ahead of the Northwestern upper
level trough.

It will continue to be hot and dry across lower elevations of the interior
Western U.S. as the upper level ridge strengthens.  The most impactful
heat will be across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest where
afternoon highs reach the 110s; an extreme heat warning is in effect for
portions of the region.  There are also elevated fire weather concerns
across portions of western Nevada and northeast California where Red Flag
Warnings are in effect for Saturday. 

The coolest areas in the country will be north of a frontal boundary
across the Great Lakes areas to the Northeast, with refreshingly cool
conditions and highs mainly in the 70s and 60s. South of the front, across
portions of the Southern and Central Plains, Southeast, and Gulf Coast, a
seasonably hot and humid airmass will remain in place.

Roth

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php