Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 30 2025 - 12Z Mon Sep 01 2025

...Pleasant, fall-like weather in store across much of the Eastern U.S.
through the holiday weekend...

...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected from the Gulf Coast to the
Plains and southern Rockies this weekend with some potential for flash
flooding...

...Heat builds across the Western U.S. after a reprieve from recent
monsoonal rains...

In the wake of a cold front that just recently swept through the Great
Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley, a pleasant, fall-like
Labor Day weekend is in store across the region with high pressure talking
control. Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the 60s and 70s,
while overnight lows bottom out in the 40s and 50s. Some typically cooler
spots near the Great Lakes and interior Northeast may even dip into 30s,
making for a chilly start each day. While it won't be quite as fall-like
farther south across the Carolinas and southern Appalachians, temperatures
the next few days will still be several degrees below normal for this time
of year.

Above normal moisture streaming around the southern and western periphery
of the bubble of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and Northeast
will make for wet and stormy weather from the Gulf Coast to the Plains and
southern Rockies through the weekend. The above normal moisture combined
with a nearly stationary frontal boundary draped along the Gulf Coast and
a slow-moving frontal system across the Plains will set the stage for
rounds of drenching showers and thunderstorms, some of which can produce
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. The greatest concern
for flooding issues lies across portions of the Plains and southern
Rockies through Sunday, with a couple broad and/or targeted Slight Risks
of excessive rainfall (level 2/4) outlined in this area. Fortunately, the
threat lessens somewhat heading into Labor Day; however, the stationary
boundary lingering along the Gulf Coast and the frontal system over the
central and southern Plains will continue to be a focus for additional
heavier showers and thunderstorms. If traveling through places that are at
risk of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding this holiday weekend,
be aware of alternate routes in advance and never drive through flooded
roadways. 

After a very active monsoon the last couple of weeks, a developing ridge
of high pressure and much drier air will deliver a much needed reprieve
from the daily onslaught of showers and thunderstorms across a large
portion of the Four Corners, Rockies, and Intermountain West. The drier
air underneath the building ridge will promote increasing sunshine,
allowing temperatures across much of the West to gradually heat up the
next few days. The growing heat will become the most intense across the
lower desert valleys of the Southwest, along with the lower elevations of
the Pacific Northwest, where high temperatures will soar well into the 90s
and 100s. Temperatures of this magnitude occurring in these regions in
late August and early September equate to widespread Moderate HeatRisk,
with spotty but increasing coverage of Major HeatRisk. To beat the heat
this weekend, remember to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and seek
shade and air conditioning whenever possible.


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php