Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 15 2025 - 00Z Fri Oct 17 2025

...A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains for New Mexico for
Wednesday ...

...Winter weather and mountain snowfall are likely in the northern
Rockies...

... Isolated severe weather across the Southern Rockies and Central High
Plains for Wednesday and Thursday...

An impressive closed upper-level low has moved into Southern California
today and has prompted several flash flooding and severe weather local
storm reports. Additionally, the Sierra Nevada has begun to see snowfall
accumulations and will continue to see Winter Storm impacts into tomorrow
morning as snowfall amounts are forecast to reach around a foot with
locally higher amounts possible. This "bowling ball of energy" will
continue to traverse the Mountain West on Wednesday and then start to
enter the Plains by late week. Meanwhile, the central part of the country
will be segmented by a stationary front across the Plains and Midwest that
will lift as a warm front in the middle of the week and bring milder
conditions across the area.  The Northeast should see weather improve
starting today and especially by tomorrow as a "backdoor" cold front
pushes through the area and cool high pressure settles into the region.

The active Southwest will continue into tomorrow as a surface low pressure
and trailing cold front traverse Arizona and New Mexico. Combinations of
large scale ascent ahead of the trough, sufficient surface instability,
and saturated soils (low flash flood guidance) will support a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall and isolated flash flooding across the San
Juan and Santo de Cristo Mountains. For Thursday, there has been another
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall added to eastern Montana and western
North Dakota as moisture and instability creep northwards in association
with the western trough and a developing surface low in the northern
Plains.

There will be enough instability and shear for organized thunderstorms
across New Mexico for Wednesday and across the Central/High Plains
Wednesday and Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has central New Mexico
to southern Colorado in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5). Hail will be the
biggest threat in thunderstorms that do develop as bulk shear will be
fairly high, but an isolated strong wind gust or two will also be
possible. Eastern Wyoming into western Kansas and South Dakota will also
see isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail. A similar weather
pattern will be in place on Thursday across the Central Plains with the
possibility of isolated supercells containing hail.

Back to the start of the cool season, the Mountain West will see snow in
the higher elevations for Wednesday and Thursday in the higher elevations.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Teton and Gros Ventre
mountain ranges beginning Wednesday night into Thursday. The current
Advisory calls for 1-4 inches around 7-9k feet and around 6-10 inches in
the higher mountain ranges. This is a reminder to prep vehicles for winter
weather travel as the cool season begins.

The other storyline worth mentioning is the anomalous warmth across the
south and central part of the countries. High temperatures will warm into
the middle 80s for states like Illinois and Missouri. This will be around
20 degrees warmer than typical for Mid-October. The South will continue to
be mostly clear and mild as mid-level ridging continues over the region.
Afternoon temperatures should generally reach the middle to upper 80s with
low temperatures mostly in the 60s for this week.


Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php