Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 30 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 01 2025

...Strengthening storm system to bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms as well as gusty winds and the risk for coastal flooding to
the Northeast Thursday...

...Widespread cool, well below average afternoon highs and chilly morning
lows continue from the Southeast to the central/southern Plains...

...Pacific storm system/atmospheric river to bring heavy rain to the
Pacific Northwest Friday...

A deep upper-low and accompanying low pressure/frontal system lifting from
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the northeastern U.S. will continue to
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms the next couple of days. The
focus for moderate to locally heavy rainfall will shift into the
Mid-Atlantic and New England Thursday as rainfall tapers off across the
Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and southern/central Appalachians. This is
especially true across the northern Mid-Atlantic/greater NYC area where a
fetch of more moist, unstable air from the Atlantic may lead to some
heavier downpours and isolated flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center
has also noted a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather across the
southern Mid-Atlantic as strong wind fields along with this fetch of
unstable air may lead to some isolated damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado. The system will quickly move to the northeast on Friday with
showers and moderate rainfall lingering longest across the Interior
Northeast. In addition to heavy rain, the deepening low pressure system
will also bring the chance for some gusty winds and coastal flooding.  

Temperatures will remain cool and well below average for much of the
eastern/central U.S. Thursday following the passage of the deep upper-low
and strong cold front. This will especially be true along the southern
tier where highs in the 50s and 60s will be common including as far south
as the Gulf Coast. Only the Florida Peninsula and south Texas will see
highs into the 70s, but even this is quite a change for south Texas after
a prolonged stretch of near record high temperatures into the mid-90s.
Temperatures will moderate some for Halloween, but still remain cooler and
below average. Morning lows will be rather chilly as well Friday and
Saturday, with 30s and 40s common across Texas and the Southeast and even
for some locations along the Gulf Coast. Patchy frost will remain a
concern.

After a couple days of drier weather mid-week, another Pacific system and
accompanying moisture fetch/atmospheric river is forecast to move into the
Pacific Northwest on Friday. Heavy rainfall is expected with several
inches possible along favorable upslope terrain of the Olympics, Cascades,
and coastal ranges as snow levels will remain high. Some isolated flooding
will be possible especially along rising rivers. In contrast to the east,
the western U.S. will remain well above average heading into the weekend
with upper-ridging being maintained overhead. High temperatures will be in
the 50s and 60s for the Pacific Northwest/northern California and the
Interior West, the 70s and 80s for central California, and into the 80s
and 90s for the Desert Southwest and southern California.

Elsewhere, some light and spotty showers are expected for portions of the
Plains and Upper Midwest as a weak clipper-like system passes by. Some
lake effect showers are possible along the Great Lakes with northwesterly
flow in place following the passage of the eastern U.S. system. Moisture
return ahead of a developing frontal boundary along the western Gulf Coast
may start to bring some thunderstorm chances by Saturday morning.   

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php