Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 09 2025 - 00Z Sat Oct 11 2025

...Moisture will increase in the Southwest ahead of Hurricane Priscilla
over the next few days leading to a threat of flash flooding...

...Developing coastal low will begin to bring the threat of coastal
flooding, gusty winds, and heavy rain to the East Coast late this week...

Thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in the Southwest along a
lingering frontal boundary through portions of central/western New Mexico
and eastern Arizona. Above average moisture and instability will lead to
some locally heavy rainfall and the potential for some isolated instances
of flash flooding. Then, on Thursday, thunderstorms will begin to greatly
expand in coverage across the Southwest/Four Corners Region as abundant
moisture from Priscilla begins to flow into the region. Widespread, heavy
downpours will bring the threat of flash flooding, with Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for the Colorado River Valley into northern
Arizona/southern Utah Thursday, and northern Arizona to the Four Corners
Friday. More isolated instances of flash flooding can be expected
elsewhere across the region. The flash flood threat will be especially
concerning for the usual terrain sensitive areas including burn scars,
slot canyons, and urban areas. The repeated rounds of thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall are expected to last at least into the weekend, with a
continued flash flood threat that will become only more concerning as
antecedent conditions become more saturated.

In the eastern U.S., some thunderstorms will be possible into Thursday
along a sagging cold front draped from the coastal Carolinas southwest to
the Gulf Coast. More widespread storms are expected southward through
central/South Florida with some isolated flash flooding possible. A more
impactful coastal low off the southeastern U.S. is forecast to begin
deepening by later this week, bringing an increasing chance for coastal
flooding, gusty winds, and heavy rain along much of the East Coast into
the weekend. For Thursday/Friday, the initial threats will likely be
increased rip currents and coastal flooding, as well as the potential for
some heavier rainfall, along the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida Coast.
Some isolated flash flooding will be possible Friday. 

Elsewhere, an upper-level wave/surface frontal system will bring the
chance for some showers to the Upper Midwest late Thursday and into the
day Friday. A slow-moving Pacific system will bring increasing
precipitation chances inland across the Pacific Northwest/northern
California though Thursday and into the northern Great Basin/Rockies by
Friday. Some snow may mix in for the highest mountain peaks, though the
chance for accumulating snow will likely hold off until the weekend.

Much cooler, below average, Fall temperatures continue to overspread much
of the eastern U.S. following the passage of a cold front. Highs
Thursday/Friday will be mainly in the 50s and 60s across much of the
Midwest/Northeast, with some moderation by Friday for the Midwest. Morning
lows into the 30s have prompted Frost/Freeze-related Advisories across
parts of the Upper Midwest and Interior Northeast for Thursday morning,
and for coastal New England southwestward through the central Appalachians
for Friday morning. Meanwhile, above average conditions are expected
across much of the Plains and Interior West, with highs into the 70s and
80s, and some 90s in Texas and the Desert Southwest. A slowly approaching
system from the Pacific will bring cooler temperatures to the West Coast,
with highs mainly in the 60s north and 70s south.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php