Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 03 2025 - 00Z Tue Aug 05 2025

...Heavy rain and excessive rainfall threat linger across the Southeast as
low pressure waves develop on a stalled frontal boundary...

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern
Plains and south-central High Plains through the next couple of days...

...Air Quality Alerts across the northern Plains/upper Midwest,
Dallas-Fort Worth, and northern New England; Fire weather hazards from the
Great Basin to the Four Corners...

...Extreme Heat Warnings across the Desert Southwest/southern Arizona...

As a large dome of cool air provides relief to the most recent heat wave
across much of the central and eastern U.S., the leading edge of the cool
air mass will be stalled from the Gulf Coast to just off the coast of the
southeastern U.S.  Numerous showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times,
will be triggered near and to the north of this frontal boundary through
the next couple of days especially where waves of low pressure are
forecast to form.  Areas across the interior sections of the Southeast to
coastal Georgia and South Carolina should see the highest chance of heavy
rain where a few inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts can be
expected.  The threat of flash flooding will persist within this area of
heavy rain through the weekend, with the threat possibly lessening on
Monday.  Temperatures will be cool enough to challenge low daytime
temperature records across the interior Southeast.

Meanwhile, rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact
portions of the northern Plains down to the south-central High Plains
through the next couple of days when upper-level disturbances ejecting
from the Rockies interact with the same front that bends back across the
Great Plains.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms include
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and occasional
tornadoes.  A threat of excessive rainfall can also be expected within
these areas, especially across the south-central Plains through Sunday
night, and portions of the northern Plains through tonight.  Across the
northern Plains to the upper Midwest, into the Great Lakes and northern
New England, poor air quality due to smoke arriving from Canadian
wildfires has continued to prompt Air Quality Alerts for these areas.

For the western U.S., scattered thunderstorms across the interior Pacific
Northwest into the northern Rockies are forecast to become more widespread
by Sunday and into Monday as a cold front develops and passes through the
region.  Meanwhile, Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for high
temperatures exceeding 110 degrees across the Desert Southwest/southern
Arizona.  Over the Great Basin to the Four Corners, elevated to critical
fire weather danger is anticipated through the remainder of the weekend
prior to the arrival of the cold front later on Monday.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php