Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 25 2025 - 00Z Sun Jul 27 2025

...Approximately 130 million people are under Extreme Heat Warnings & Heat
Advisories from the Central Plains to the Northeast..

...Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather likely from the Central
Plains and Midwest to the Great Lakes...

...Heavy rain possible along much of the Gulf coast over the next few
days...

...Relatively tranquil weather expected across the West, but a fire
weather threat for northern California into the Great Basin due to
lightning...

A late July heat wave will continue to expand eastward during the second
half of the week with sultry conditions on tap from the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Midwest to the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. A heat
dome of upper-level high pressure will anchor itself over the eastern
third of the Lower 48, setting the stage for intense and potentially
dangerous heat for the next several days and beyond. Widespread moderate
to major HeatRisk with pockets of extreme HeatRisk have resulted in the
issuance of numerous Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories through
Friday, with more likely to come heading into Saturday. WPC continues to
carry Key Messages for this ongoing heat wave, which also highlights the
increasingly dangerous and long lasting heat that is expected to worsen
across a large portion of the Southeast later this weekend into early next
week. Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat for more information on
tips for how to stay could and safe when dealing with dangerous heat.

The upper-level ridge responsible for the sizzling heat will also help to
usher in copious amounts of Gulf moisture northward across the Front Range
of the Rockies, the Central Plains, and the Midwest. This rich moisture,
combined with a cold front approaching from the Northern Plains, will help
ignite widespread thunderstorms across much of the Nation's Heartland and
into the Great Lakes. With plenty of moisture to work with, these storms
will be capable of producing torrential rainfall with the potential to
cause numerous instances of flash flooding. The greatest risk will be
confined to a portion of eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, where the
Weather Prediction Center has issued a brand new Moderate Risk (threat
level 3/4) of excessive rainfall. This Moderate Risk includes the Topeka
and Kansas City metro areas. Outside of the Moderate Risk, a Slight Risk
(threat level 2/4) remains in place from the southern High Plains on east
to the Chicagoland metro area this afternoon. The frontal boundary is not
likely to make much progress on Friday, making it possible for similar
parts of the Midwest that were hit with storms on Thursday to possibly see
additional strong storms on Friday. WPC maintains a Slight Risk from the
Central Plains on east through the heart of the Midwest. In addition, some
storms may potentially become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a
lengthy Marginal Risk (threat level 1/5) from the Rockies' Front Range to
the Great Lakes, with a Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) in place from
western Michigan to northern Illinois. The severe threat moves into the
Northeast on Friday with a Marginal Risk and Slight Risk encompassing much
of the Northeast's I-95 corridor. Additional severe storms are also
possible in the Northern Plains on Friday and again on Saturday ahead of
another approaching cold front.

In the South, a wave of low pressure moving west along the Gulf Coast
containing tropical moisture aloft will spawn additional heavy showers and
thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast on east through much of Florida
this afternoon and evening. The heavy rain potential continues to march
west towards the Texas Coast on Friday with additional downpours likely
along the Gulf Coast. Some locally heavy thunderstorms are possible as far
north as the Carolinas thanks to a nearby frontal boundary. The Weather
Prediction Center is carrying a Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4) from the
central Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas this afternoon, while a
Marginal Risk remains in place once again along the central Gulf Coast and
the Upper Texas Coast Friday into Saturday.

While the majority of the West is likely to experience dry and seasonally
cool conditions, the exception to the dry conditions is northern
California on east into the northern Great Basin. A cut-off upper low will
direct moisture at the region with scattered thunderstorms likely to
develop. Dry thunderstorms are a growing concern in the northern Sierra
Nevada and into the northern Great Basin where critically dry fuels are
present and lightning strikes could spark wildfires in these regions this
afternoon. SPC highlights the northern Sierra Nevada as having the better
odds of witnessing dry thunderstorms this afternoon. The dry thunderstorm
potential becomes more isolated in nature on Friday, but the wildfire
potential persists from the northern Sierra Nevada to as far north as
Idaho's Snake River Valley.

Miller/Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php