Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 28 2025 - 00Z Wed Jul 30 2025

....There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi, Ohio Valleys, Central Appalachians, and Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes, on Sunday, Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi
Valley on Monday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and over the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and
Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday...

On Sunday, a front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern
Plains to the Northern Rockies will move eastward to the Northeast, Great
Lakes, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Northern Rockies by Tuesday. The
front will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through Monday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is an added
threat of hail two inches or greater over the area.

Additionally, showers and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
through Monday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes,
and a minimal threat of hail.

Moreover, tropical moisture pooling over the Mid-Atlantic to Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys will produce areas of heavy rain over parts of
the Middle Mississippi, Ohio Valleys, and Central Appalachians. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi, Ohio Valleys, and Central Appalachians
through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, a third area of heavy rain is expected to develop over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas
of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable. Also, on Sunday, upper-level energy will
trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Rockies and
Northern Intermountain Region.

On Monday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along the front
from the Northern High Plains/Rockies Mountains to the Upper Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies
Mountains to the Upper Mississippi Valley from Monday through Tuesday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
There is an additional threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65
knots or greater over eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota.

Additionally, on Monday, increasing moisture over the Upper Midwest will
produce showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain, over parts
of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley
from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will
primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, on Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
heavy rain over parts of the Northern High Plains, Northern/Central
Plains, and the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern High Plains, Northern/Central Plains, and the
Middle Mississippi Valley. The associated heavy rain will primarily create
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Additionally, on Tuesday,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over most of the eastern
third of the country.

Moreover, an upper-level high over the Southeast extends westward to the
Southern Rockies will aid in producing dangerous high temperatures,
accompanied by high humidity from the Northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley,
Tennessee Valley, as well as the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Extreme Heat
Warnings, Heat Advisories, and Extreme Heat Watches are over these regions
through Tuesday. An extended period of extreme heat and minimal nighttime
relief can lead to cumulative heat stress on the body. As temperatures
rise, plan to limit outdoor activities, stay hydrated, and ensure access
to air conditioning and other cooling areas. Additionally, be sure to
check on vulnerable family members, friends, and neighbors.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php