Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 07 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 09 2025

...Heavy rain may cause flash flooding over the Ohio Valley/central
Appalachians today into tonight...

...Scattered flash flooding is possible across the Southwest, particularly
New Mexico...

A cold front is forecast to slowly move across the east-central U.S. today
and tonight, reaching the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday. Gulf moisture
streaming north will pool along and ahead of the front, leading to rain
and thunderstorms stretching from the Great Lakes through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys and Appalachians into the Southeast and Gulf Coast. The
heaviest rain of around 2 to 4 inches is possible in Kentucky and
vicinity. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall causing flash
flooding is in effect across parts of the Ohio Valley into the central
Appalachians through tonight. Rain chances will march eastward with the
front tonight into Wednesday morning, reaching the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic before clearing out during the day Wednesday, though
lingering in the Carolinas. A weak surface trough may also lead to showers
and storms across the Florida Peninsula over the next couple of days.

The backside of the frontal boundary is forecast to stall in the Southwest
with waves of low pressure. Combined with tropical Pacific moisture
starting to stream north, rain and thunderstorms are likely for New Mexico
in particular. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) is also in place for parts of New
Mexico for locally heavy rain causing flash flooding today. Burn scars and
urban areas will be particularly vulnerable to flooding. The Storm
Prediction Center indicates a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather
for isolated high wind and hail threats across central New Mexico as well.
This will be the start of a multi-day period of thunderstorms and locally
heavy rainfall across the Southwest, given tropical moisture streaming
north from Hurricane Priscilla in the eastern Pacific, though exact
placement and rain amounts will vary from day to day.

The cold front will be a dividing line between above normal temperatures
to its south and east, and near to below normal temperatures behind it.
Another warmer than average day is in store from the Gulf Coast states
toward the Eastern Seaboard today. The Northeast should see the most
anomalous temperatures of 10 to 20 degrees above normal as highs rise to
around 80 degrees, and a few daily record highs are possible. The cold
frontal passage by Wednesday will drop high temperatures to near normal
there. Behind the front, some Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in
place for parts of the north-central U.S. this morning, with some in
Minnesota and Wisconsin lasting through Wednesday morning. Highs are
forecast to only be in the 60s as far south as the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles today, which is around 15 to 20 degrees below average. Cooler
temperatures will start to moderate closer to average by Wednesday, while
areas of the Intermountain West warm to above normal as an upper ridge
builds. However, the Pacific Northwest should cool on Wednesday as a cold
front comes in, also prompting light precipitation (with mix or snow
possible for the highest peaks of the Cascades).


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php