Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 10 2025 - 00Z Sun Oct 12 2025

...Heavy rain and flash flooding risk to increase across the Desert
Southwest to the Four Corners as moisture from Tropical Cyclone Priscilla
moves north...

...A coastal storm is expected to bring flooding, high surf, dangerous rip
currents, gusty winds and heavy rain up the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
coasts through the next few days...

An increasingly active weather pattern is forecast for both the West and
East Coasts of the U.S. as we head into the weekend. A broad southwesterly
flow setting up ahead of a deep upper-level low centered off the Pacific
Northwest will continue to steer moisture originated from Tropical Cyclone
Priscilla in the eastern Pacific toward the southwestern U.S.  Showers and
thunderstorms that have already developed today across the portions of the
Southwest will become more organized and widespread through tonight.  By
Friday, the focus of heavy rainfall is expected to encompass much of the
Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region, where a slight risk of
flash flooding is forecast.  Meanwhile, a moderate risk of flash flooding
is anticipated for central Arizona on Friday into early Saturday.  The
flash flooding threat will be particularly concerning for
terrain-sensitive areas, including burn scars, slot canyons, and urban
regions.  The heavy rain may become less focused across central Arizona
during the day on Saturday as the heavy rain threat pushes farther to the
northeast into the Four Corners.  However, on the heels of Priscilla's
moisture will be Tropical Cyclone Raymond whose moisture plume is forecast
reach southeastern Arizona later on Saturday.

In the eastern U.S., an expansive high pressure system is bringing another
dose of cool, fair, and pleasant autumn weather into the region. 
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough is digging into the southeastern U.S. and
will begin to interact with a front that has been lingering across
northern Florida and along the Gulf Coast near the warm Gulf Stream.  A
complex interaction among these three weather systems is expected to
develop a low pressure system off the southeastern U.S. on Saturday. 
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near the east coast
Florida and spread inland into the Florida Peninsula through Friday. 
Easterly winds along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts will continue
to strengthen Friday into Saturday as the coastal storm develops and
intensifies, heightening the potential for coastal impacts, including
flooding, heavy surf, and dangerous rip currents. By later on Saturday,
the center of the low pressure system could be redeveloping off the North
Carolina coast with heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms rotating onshore
into eastern North Carolina and eastern shores of Virginia and Maryland.

Behind the front, much cooler, below-average temperatures ranging from the
50s to 60s will prevail across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and
Northeast, with some warming expected in the Ohio Valley on Friday.
Morning lows dipping into the 30s have prompted Frost and Freeze
Advisories across parts of the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast, and
for coastal New England southwestward through the central Appalachians on
Friday morning. In contrast, above-average temperatures will prevail
across much of the Plains and interior West, with highs in the 70s and
80s, and some 90s in Texas and the Desert Southwest. A slowly approaching
Pacific system will bring cooler conditions to the West Coast, with highs
mainly in the 60s across the north and 70s to the south.

Elsewhere, an upper-level disturbance and associated surface front will
bring a chance of showers to the Upper Midwest beginning late today and
continuing into the weekend. Meanwhile, a slow-moving Pacific system will
increase precipitation chances across the Pacific Northwest and northern
California into tonight, spreading into the northern Great Basin and
Rockies by Friday. Saturday should see the coverage of the rain increasing
across the Intermountain West into the northern Rockies. Some snow may mix
in over the highest mountain peaks, although significant accumulations are
likely to hold off until later in the weekend.

Kong/Pereira


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php