Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 23 2025 - 12Z Fri Jul 25 2025

...Over 95 million people are under heat related warnings & advisories
from the Mississippi Valley to the Northeast today through Thursday...

...Heavy rains, flash flooding & severe weather possible from the Northern
& Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley & Upper Great Lakes...

...Heavy rains & flash flooding also possible from the Southeast, across
much of Florida, & into the Central Gulf Coast...

The remainder of the week features a strengthening heat dome over the
Mississippi Valley today that gradually builds east towards the East Coast
by week's end. A combination of mid-upper 90s for high temperatures and
humid conditions are a recipe for oppressive heat indices that range
between 100-115F for many areas along and just east of the Mississippi
River today. Record heat in parts of these regions are also expected, with
the bulk of the record warmth coming via the overnight/morning lows as
temperatures drop only into the mid-upper 70s. The NWS HeatRisk product
depicts Major Impacts, and even localized Extreme Impacts, from as far
south as the central Gulf Coast to as far north as northern Wisconsin. By
Thursday, the footprint of searing heat moves east into the Great Lakes
and Northeast. Numerous heat-related warnings and advisories are in place
today across the Mississippi Valley, with Heat Advisories also out for
Thursday in parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast. WPC continues to carry
Key Messages for this ongoing heat wave. Please visit
www.weather.gov/safety/heat for more information on tips for how to stay
cool and safe when dealing with dangerously hot conditions.

As the heat ridge orients itself over the Mississippi Valley today,
copious amounts of moisture over the Southern Plains will stream northward
into the Midwest today. This moisture source will be directed at an
approaching frontal boundary and trigger widespread showers and storms
from the Central Rockies to the northern Great Lakes. There are Slight
Risks issued from both the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) and Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) as widespread storms across the Midwest pose a
threat for both flash flooding and severe weather today. By Thursday, the
flash flood threat shifts south from the central Rockies on east to the
Great Lakes. WPC has issued a Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) for flash
flooding from central Kansas to the western shores of Lake Michigan.
Farther south, a low pressure system drifting west along the Gulf Coast
will utilize tropical moisture to produce torrential downpours across
portions of the Southeast. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur along
the central Gulf Coast and across much of Florida through Thursday. WPC
has issued a Marginal Risk for much of the Southeast given the potential
for localized flash flooding through Thursday.

In the West, temperatures will largely be on the unseasonably cool side
thanks to a meandering cut-off upper low meandering off the California
coast through Thursday night. The upper low will also act as a trigger for
showers and thunderstorms in pats of northern California on Thursday,
particularly in the Shasta and Sierra Nevada mountain ranges. WPC has
introduced a Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4) for Thursday due to the
potential for localized flash flooding near burn scars and along complex
terrain in these mountain ranges. Aside from the locally heavy
thunderstorms in northenr California, mostly dry conditions are
anticipated in the Desert Southwest, the Pacific Northwest, and along the
I-95 corridor from central Virginia to southern New England.

Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php