Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1238 AM EDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 01 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 03 2025

...Rain to persist over the Pacific Northwest for the weekend...

...A cold front brings rain/thunderstorm chances across the the
southeastern third of the country...

...Above average/near record warmth will build in across the West this
weekend as ridging builds...


The Pacific Northwest will see the heaviest precipitation across the
country as an atmospheric river and cold front are presently moving
ashore.  The coastal zones may see rainfall accumulations in the 2-3 inch
range and as much as 3-5 inches in the Cascades and Olympic mountain
ranges, prompting an isolated risk of flash flooding and perhaps some
river flooding, with the Skokomish most at risk. Additionally, gusty winds
and high waves are hazards with this storm system. Elevation snow in the
Cascades is also likely Saturday.  A reinforcing disturbance will bring
additional rain showers into Sunday and eventually push a cold front
through the Northwest.

An intense cyclone is expected to move northeast, away from New England. 
In its wake will be modest lake effect precipitation on Saturday, and the
cold advection will keep temperatures below average this weekend into
Monday east of the Mississippi River due to the persistence of upper level
troughing.  An approaching front bringing precipitation back into the
picture for the Great Lakes late Sunday into Monday.  To the south, a weak
cyclone/cold front looks to bring chances for rain across the Midwest and
Texas Gulf Coast today (with some storms near the Texas coast strong to
perhaps severe), portions of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys late Saturday into
Sunday, and to portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic coast late
Sunday into Monday.

Central and southern portions of the Intermountain West should remain warm
and dry with high temperatures in the 70s commonplace on Saturday --
Southern California and Arizona may approach the 80s and low 90s.  Several
locations could set daily record high temperatures. On Sunday, the warmth
will shift westward across the Rockies and into the Dakotas. High
temperatures are likely to hit the upper 70s/near 80 across the Front
Range, which is about 10-15 degrees above average for this time of the
year and near daily record highs.  The dry and breezy conditions should
contribute to an enhanced fire weather risk across southeast Wyoming and
Nebraska on Sunday.

Roth


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php