Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 03 2025 - 12Z Tue Aug 05 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains and the Southeast on Sunday and the Southeast on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains on Sunday...

...Air Quality Alerts over the Upper Midwest and parts of the Northeast...

A front extending from the Southeast westward along the Gulf Coast to the
Southern Plains will remain quasi-stationary through Tuesday. The front
will trigger showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain, over
parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas
of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.

Additionally, upper-level energy and a steady source of moisture will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the
Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas
of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.

In addition to the heavy rain over the Southern Plains, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains through
Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms include
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and occasional
tornadoes. Further, upper-level energy will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Intermountain Region from the late afternoon to the late evening on Sunday.

On Monday, tropical moisture over the Southeast, along with a lingering
boundary, will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over
parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast from Monday through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Moreover, a strong upper-level impulse moving over the Northern
Intermountain Region and another area of upper-level energy moving over
the Northern/Central Plains will produce showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region into the
Northern High Plains and a second area over parts of the Northern
Plains/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued two regions of a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Intermountain Region into the Northern High Plains and the
Northern Plains/Central High Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning. 
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms include frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat for
tornadoes. Also on Monday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the
Central/Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.

Meanwhile, smoke from wildfires in Canada has prompted Air Quality Alerts
over the Upper Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley, and parts of the
U.S./Canadian border in the Northeast on Sunday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php