Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 10 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 12 2025

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great
Basin and Southwest on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies and a second area over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday...

...Heavy snow over parts of the Northern Rockies Saturday night into
Sunday...

On Friday, moisture from Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA will move northward
into the Southwest and Great Basin, producing showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4)
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and Great Basin through
Saturday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In
addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The
flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas. 

The showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue on Saturday
over parts of the Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies from Saturday through Sunday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable. The flooding may include debris flows in
or near recently burned areas.

In addition, an upper-level low off the Northwest Coast will move inland
over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California into the Northern
Intermountain Region by Sunday. The system will produce rain with embedded
thunderstorms over the Northwest and Northern California on Friday. As the
associated upper-level trough moves inland, snow will develop over the
higher elevations of the Cascades on Saturday into Sunday. Also, on
Saturday into Sunday, locally heavy snow will develop over parts of the
Northern Intermountain Region and the Northern Rockies.

Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along a stationary front over the
east coast of Florida on Friday. The low will slowly move northward along
the Southeast Coast, moving to the North Carolina Coast by Sunday. The
system will stream moisture into the North Carolina Coast, producing
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic Coast from Saturday through Sunday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop
over Florida and along parts of the Southeast Coast on Friday. The rain
will extend as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday
into Sunday.

Furthermore, a front extending from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains
will slowly dissipate by Saturday evening.  The system will produce rain
with embedded thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes on Friday, which
will spread to the northeast by Sunday morning.



Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php