Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Sep 14 2026

...Unsettled weather continues across the Central and Eastern U.S. ahead
of a well-defined front...

...Developing low pressure system to produce wet and cool weather across
the Northwest and Northern Rockies...

A well-defined cold front emanating from a deep cyclone located over
Hudson Bay is forecast to migrate across the Central and Eastern U.S. this
weekend. The approach of this feature, along with a broad warm front in
the Ohio Valley, is expected to maintain shower and thunderstorm chances
across a broad area from the Northeast to the Plains states for the next
few days. The heaviest rainfall within this broad area is initially
expected to focus over portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and
Northeast later today through tomorrow as a very moist airmass surges
northward with the warm front. Scattered flash flooding is the main
concern in this region owing to the combination of slow storm motions,
saturated soil in the region, and urban areas in the path of these storms
including the I-95 corridor from Richmond to New York.

Along the opposite coast, a strong Pacific system will approach the
Northwest tonight, leading to beneficial soaking rains and another frontal
boundary overtaking the region tomorrow. Farther south, daily monsoon
thunderstorms will continue across the Southern Rockies and Four Corners.
As the Pacific system evolves, it is expected to spin up a lee-side
cyclone over the Northern and Central Rockies. By tomorrow morning, a
strong low-level jet interacting with a northward-moving front will cause
the Plains to light up with showers and thunderstorms, introducing a risk
of isolated to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall aside, the frontal
passage(s) should usher in pleasant daytime temperatures over portions of
the Northern Tier, Great Basin, and High Plains with highs in the low-mid
60s and 70s. Unfortunately, the front will fail to make it past the
Oklahoma Panhandle, which means that potentially record-breaking heat will
continue for the next few days over portions of the Southern Plains and
Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php