Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 12 2026 - 00Z Wed Oct 14 2026

...Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias will bring heavy rainfall to the Eastern
states...

...Tropical moisture will continue to bring heavy precipitation and flash
flooding to the southwestern U.S....

...Winter storm conditions forecast across the Northern Rockies through
Monday morning...


An active weather pattern will continue across the Lower 48 through
Monday. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias is bringing widespread rainfall to
the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, with convective showers and
thunderstorms extending along the Southeast Coast. Locally heavy rainfall
could lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding in the
Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will also be
possible through this evening from the Mid-Atlantic into the eastern
Carolinas. Rainfall will continue across the Mid-Atlantic into Monday
morning, but should gradually taper off through the afternoon as Isaias
moves offshore into the Atlantic. Dry conditions will prevail across the
East for the rest of the day on Monday, but precipitation chances will
likely return to the Northeast on Tuesday as a frontal boundary sinks into
the region.

Meanwhile, tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Rachel is
surging into the Intermountain West and producing heavy precipitation
ahead of a deep upper low. Widespread heavy rainfall could cause numerous
instances of flash flooding in the southwestern U.S., especially near
steep terrain and burn scars. There is a Moderate Risk of excessive
rainfall though tonight for portions of Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, and a
Slight Risk for this region on Monday. Moisture extending into the
northern Intermountain West encountered colder temperatures, resulting in
wintry precipitation across the northern Rockies. Winter Storm conditions
will be possible in this area through Monday morning, then conditions will
improve as the upper low focuses over the Southwest on Tuesday. As the low
shifts to the Southwest, precipitation should shift east into Wyoming and
Colorado and severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the system
over the central and southern High Plains.

A temperature dichotomy will exist across the country through mid-week.
Well above average temperatures are forecast to develop over much of the
central and eastern U.S., with highs into the 80s and even lower 90s for
portions of the Plains and Midwest. There will likely be some daily record
highs that will be tied or broken. Much colder temperatures are expected
across the West under the upper low, with highs generally in the 40s and
50s across the Intermountain West.

Dolan/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php