Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 14 2025 - 00Z Wed Jul 16 2025

...Heavy rain/flash flooding threat over the Mid-Atlantic and Upper
Midwest...

..Heat remains over much of the eastern and western U.S....

...Increasing heavy rainfall and flash flood threat for Florida
Monday-Tuesday...

A slowly-moving front draped from the eastern Great Lakes back to the
southern Plains will help instigate widespread showers and thunderstorms
over the next couple of days along and south/east of the boundary. In
addition, high humidity levels will support locally heavy rainfall that
may lead to flash flooding nearly anywhere in this area, especially in
urban areas and where it has been recently wet. Ongoing rainfall over
areas of New York/Mid-Atlantic, the middle Mississippi Valley, and eastern
Texas will cause a threat of flash flooding this evening before winding
down overnight. By tomorrow, the I-95 urban corridor from the New York
metro area southward through Philly/DC into Richmond will again see
another chance of showers/storms with the potential for flash flooding.
Temperatures will be very warm/hot (near and several degrees above normal)
and heat index values will be modestly high, yielding HeatRisk values to
be in the Moderate (Level 2 of 4) category in the
Midwest/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and into the Major category (Level 3 of 4)
over parts of the Southeast tomorrow. Rainfall will cool temperatures a
bit but raise humidity levels. By Tuesday, the expanse of rainfall will
decrease as the front starts to dissipate, but the Mid-Atlantic will still
see a chance for localized flash flooding.

For much of the interior West, temperatures will remain hot on Monday
(well into the 90s/100s) with HeatRisk values in the Moderate to Major
categories. Heat advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect again
on Monday for places like Las Vegas all the way into NorCal and
southwestern Oregon. The immediate California coast will remain cool with
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. For the Four Corners region, monsoonal
moisture will increase this week and showers may be more widespread,
thought still on the lighter side, across the region. Temperatures will
ease back from the higher levels by midweek.

Across the northern tier, a wavy frontal boundary will slowly sink
southeastward with an increase in rainfall over the region. There is a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on Monday along the Canadian border
and a Slight Risk on Tuesday (northern Plains to the Upper Midwest).
Behind the cold front over Montana, high pressure will bring in much
cooler air to the state. High temperatures will drop from the 70s/80s on
Monday to the 50s/60s on Tuesday (15-20 degrees below normal).

Finally, over Florida, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area
off the Southeast coast for potential development. This feature will move
across the Peninsula over the next two days and bring with it an
increasing chance of heavy rainfall. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
is noted for both Monday and Tuesday. Sensitive areas and urban areas
along and south of I-4 will be most vulnerable.

Fracasso


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php