Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 21 2025 - 00Z Wed Apr 23 2025

...An intensifying low pressure system will bring gusty winds and a swath
of heavy rain up across Missouri and eastern Iowa, severe thunderstorms
from Arkansas to Missouri through tonight, then wet snow across the upper
Great Lakes early Monday morning...

...Scattered mountain snow expected for the northern Rockies on Monday,
along with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms across the
northern Plains into Tuesday...

A low pressure system is forecast to intensify and track relatively
quickly northeastward across the central Plains this evening and into the
upper Midwest by Monday morning.  A swath of heavy rain accompanied with
gusty winds and a slight chance of flash flooding is expected to develop
ahead of the system from Arkansas this afternoon into Missouri, and
eastern Iowa tonight, along with strong to possibly severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe
thunderstorms from northern Arkansas into much of Missouri through Monday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, along with the
possibility of tornadoes.  The low pressure system will expand in size as
it moves across the Great Lakes on Monday before moving away into Canada
going into Tuesday.  Colder air wrapping around the system is enough to
bring a period of wet snow across the upper Great Lakes near the west end
of Lake Superior early on Monday where a few inches of accumulation is
possible.  The low will then bring gusty winds and scattered showers
through the central Great Lakes on Monday.  Meanwhile, the trailing cold
front will sweep across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday with
thunderstorms gradually losing intensity.  The front will then bring
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms Monday night through the
Northeast with only a slight chance of showers on Tuesday.  Across the
Deep South, the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger
into Tuesday as the front gradually stalls across the region.

Meanwhile, the next upper trough and associated front will bring a round
of scattered mountain snow for the northern Rockies on Monday.  The
moisture is forecast to spread farther to the east across the northern
Plains where scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms can be expected
to advance from west to east into Tuesday.  A low pressure system is
expected to gradually develop over the northern Plains on Tuesday but it
appears that limited amounts of moisture will only trigger widely
scattered showers and storms over the upper Midwest ahead of a warm front
and a triple-point low pressure wave.

Much of the the country will enter a relatively quiet weather pattern with
the departure of the low pressure system over the Great Lakes.  The
eastern U.S. and the Southwest will remain rather warm for April while a
warming trend is forecast for the northern Plains by Monday.  Moisture
from the Gulf will begin to return to allow increasing chance of scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms across the western to central Gulf
Coast on Tuesday.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php