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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0653Z Nov 14, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 151 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 14 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 ...A rapidly developing coastal storm is expected to bring a period of gusty winds, enhanced rainfall and thunderstorms from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday night into Friday... ...Lower elevation/coastal rain and mountain snow continue for the Pacific Northwest Thursday; a rain/snow mix will spread inland across the Great Basin and Rockies Thursday and Friday... ...Most of the country will see seasonable to above average temperatures to end the week... Showers will continue this morning and into Thursday afternoon ahead of a low pressure/frontal system pushing through the Great Lakes region, with precipitation chances gradually winding down with time and eastward extent Thursday evening as the system weakens. To the south, more vigorous showers and thunderstorms and heavier rainfall will continue ahead of the front over the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and into the Southeast, spreading into the central/southern Appalachians Thursday afternoon. Then, by Thursday evening, a secondary low is expected to develop along the coast of the Carolinas and deepen as it moves offshore, helping to enhance onshore flow and rain chances over the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic into Thursday night. Some gusty winds will also be possible. Rain chances should quickly taper off from west to east by Friday morning as the low moves away from the coast. Further north, an area of low pressure lifting northward over the Atlantic and into Nova Scotia will bring some showers and possibly a wintry mix into Maine on Friday. A Pacific frontal system moving through the West will spread precipitation chances inland over the next couple of days. Lower elevation/coastal rain and higher elevation snowfall over the Pacific Northwest and northern California will continue through the day Thursday before tapering off into Thursday evening as moist flow from the Pacific comes to an end. A lower elevation rain/snow mix and higher elevation snow will spread further inland with the system over the northern Rockies/Great Basin Thursday and into the central Great Basin/Rockies on Friday. Some moderate to locally heavy snowfall is also forecast for the Sierra Nevada through Friday. Most of the country will see seasonable to above average temperatures Thursday and Friday. Central portions of the country will continue to see temperatures 5-15 degrees above average as an upper-level ridge passes over the region. Forecast highs generally range from the 40s and 50s for the Great Lakes/Midwest, the 50s for the northern Plains, the 60s for the central Plains, and the 60s and 70s for the southern Plains. Highs will be more seasonable and even a bit below average for the East Coast Thursday, with 40s and 50s for New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Carolinas. Temperatures will rebound a bit Friday as conditions moderate, with highs 5-10 degrees warmer and into the 50s and 60s. Areas of the Southeast/Gulf Coast ahead of the cold front will see highs as warm as the upper 70s Thursday before falling into the 60s and low 70s following the frontal passage on Friday. Most of the inland West will see seasonable to above average highs Thursday ahead of the incoming frontal system, with highs in the 50s for the Great Basin/Rockies/Four Corners region and the 80s into the Desert Southwest. Highs on Friday will drop into the 40s for the Great Basin and 60s to low 70s for the Desert Southwest following the frontal passage. The West Coast will see highs mainly in the 50s and 60s. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php thunderstorms and isolated flash flooding concerns to the Tennessee and Mississippi as well as the lower Ohio Valleys Wednesday