Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 12 2025 - 12Z Mon Jul 14 2025

...Stormy weekend forecast across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and much of
the East Coast with some severe weather and flash flooding possible...

...Risk of flash flooding returns to the Southern Plains this weekend
including portions of hard-hit northern/central Texas...

..Heat builds over much of the eastern and western U.S. this weekend with
heat-related advisories and warnings in place...

A Summertime airmass rich with moisture ahead of a cold front progressing
from the Midwest/Plains into the Northeast will fuel widespread
thunderstorms across much of the eastern and central U.S. this weekend.
Storms are expected along both the front over the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley and well ahead of the front along the East Coast Saturday. An
upper-level shortwave supporting greater shear along the cold front from
the Lower Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley will bring the threat for some
severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) mainly for the threat of damaging winds. In addition, the
plentiful moisture will lead to locally heavy downpours and the risk for
isolated flash flooding both here as well as across portions of the
Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic northward into Upstate New York/western New
England. The cold front will move eastward into the Northeast on Sunday
helping to focus storm coverage across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
northward into the northern Appalachians and Upstate New York. The threat
for training/repeated rounds of storms on top of the anomalously moist air
mass has led to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) with
scattered instances of flash flooding possible. More isolated instances of
flash flooding can be expected westward along the stalling front through
the Ohio Valley.

To the southwest, the cold front is expected to stall across the Southern
Plains with a position likely dictated/reinforced by ongoing convection.
Plentiful Gulf moisture remains throughout the region and the passage of
an upper-level wave will help to support widespread storm development both
Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, the greatest threat of storm coverage as
well as heavy rain rates/totals stretches from Oklahoma southwest through
portions of northern and central Texas, where a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in effect. The expected heavy rainfall totals along with
already sensitive, wet antecedent conditions may lead to scattered to
potentially numerous instances of flash flooding. The Slight Risk extends
into western Texas and eastern New Mexico due to the threat for heavy
downpours and scattered flash flooding here as well. The front will make
little progress into Sunday, again likely dictated by convection
Saturday/Saturday night, with a similar threat for more heavy rainfall
overlapping most of the same region as Saturday. A Slight Risk remains in
effect for more scattered to potentially numerous instances of flash
flooding, especially for areas that are impacted Saturday. 

Hot temperatures are in store this weekend across much of the eastern and
western U.S. In the West, most locations will be in the 90s to low 100s,
with low 110s in the Desert Southwest, as an upper-level ridge builds
overhead. The most hazardous heat is expected across the central
California Valleys into the interior Pacific Northwest/western Great
Basin, with areas of Major Heat Risk expected (level 3/4), indicating a
level of heat dangerous to anyone without access to adequate air
conditioning or hydration. Much of the region is under heat-related
warnings and advisories. Highs into the 90s and very muggy conditions will
also lead to an uncomfortable weekend in the East, with areas of Major
Heat Risk expected across the Interior Northeast/Lower Great Lakes
Saturday, and expanding in coverage across much of the Southeast/Carolinas
Sunday. A cold front passage will bring a little relief to the Interior
Northeast/Lower Great Lakes on Sunday. Onshore flow will keep temperatures
much cooler in coastal New England. Areas of the Plains and Midwest will
see below average temperatures and more temperate Summer conditions with
the cold front passage and areas of widespread clouds/precipitation. Highs
on Saturday will be in the low to mid 80s for most of the northern/central
Plains and Midwest, with low 90s into Texas. Warmer conditions will return
to more northern locations by Sunday as highs warm up into the mid-80s to
low 90s, while much of the central/southern Plains and Texas will remain
in the 80s. 

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php