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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0656Z Jun 16, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 18 2025 ...Flash flooding possible across portions of Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Central Appalachians/Kentucky on Monday and the Central Appalachians/Central Plains/Midwest Tuesday... ...Severe thunderstorms possible for portions of the Northern/Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley Monday, Central Plains Tuesday, and Midwest/Great Lakes Wednesday... ...Fire weather threat for the Great Basin/Southwest on Monday and southeast Arizona/western New Mexico on Tuesday...the Southwest sees significant heat... The general flow pattern features troughing across portions of the Midwest through Wednesday which should keep much of the country east of the Rockies and east of the Southern Plains unsettled. The mean trough will be composed of two pieces -- an initial trough that shears out of the Ohio Valley and northwest Gulf Coast, and a kicker disturbance that travels through the West and Central Plains into the Corn Belt Wednesday. The kicker disturbance will cause the warm core ridge in New Mexico and ridging across the Northern Plains to weaken by Tuesday, with ridging rebounding in the Desert Southwest on Wednesday. Near and ahead of the Ohio Valley to western Gulf coast upper level trough will lie a quasi-stationary front which will provide the focus for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall Monday and Tuesday across areas with soils that have become increasingly saturated over recent days. The highest flash flood risk on Monday lies near Kentucky, the Central Appalachians, Virginia, and North Carolina on Monday. On Tuesday, the flash flood threat becomes more restricted in the Central Appalachians. On Wednesday, the risk lessens as the front/focus for the most active thunderstorm activity lifts northeast through New England. As a progressive, kicker disturbance moves through the West, it leads to a fire weather risk on Monday across portions of the Great Basin, Columbia Basin, and Colorado Rockies before its weak cold front attempts to move through the area Tuesday. The fire weather threat then shifts towards southeast Arizona and western New Mexico on Tuesday. Severe weather is in the offing for Monday across portions of the Northern & Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley as the disturbance aloft helps to flatten the ridging which previously existed across the region. Its front will focus the highest flash flood risk Tuesday across the Central Plains/Midwest. As it continues its trek eastward and its front sags south, the highest severe weather threat shifts south more solidly into the Central Plains on Tuesday and onward into the Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. An upper level ridge over New Mexico will lead to another day of significant heat across the Southwest on Monday before it weakens on Tuesday taking the edge off of the heat briefly, before rebounding across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday leading to renewed heat. Record high temperatures could be tied of exceeded in spots on Monday. Heat advisories remain in effect across portions of southern New Mexico and far west Texas on Monday and Tuesday, with Extreme Heat Warnings continuing for southern Arizona and far southeast California on Monday. This is the region with the highest odds of 100F+ high temperatures, with 110F+ expected for another day in the Desert Southwest, and 120F+ in Death Valley on Monday and Wednesday. Roth Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php