Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 07 2024 - 00Z Wed Oct 09 2024

...Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico and is expected to move northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula
by the middle of the week...

...Very heavy rainfall well ahead of Hurricane Milton will arrive across
the Florida Peninsula and Keys bringing the threat of flash flooding...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected for portions of the Upper Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes through this evening with the threat for some
large hail and damaging winds...

...Record-breaking heat will continue across California and the Southwest
through early this week...

Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over southwestern Gulf of Mexico
and is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to move
northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula by the middle of this week.
However, potentially significant flash flooding impacts are expected well
ahead of the storm as anomalously moist tropical air and instability
increase along a wavy frontal boundary draped across the southern Florida
Peninsula. Separate waves of low pressure along this front will favor
areas of very heavy to potentially extreme rainfall in a concentrated
fashion across portions of South Florida through Monday and Tuesday. There
is Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (level 3/4) depicted over this
region. Additional heavy rainfall more directly connected to Hurricane
Milton will arrive by Wednesday, and going through Wednesday night,
rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with localized totals of 15 inches are
expected. Please consult the latest NHC public advisories for the latest
information on the expected track and impacts from Hurricane Milton.

An upper-level trough and associated surface frontal system will pass
through areas of the Upper Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes region and the
interior of the Northeast going through tonight and Monday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, and there will be a
concern for some severe weather especially this evening across areas of
eastern Ohio, the northern West Virginia Panhandle, western Pennsylvania
and western New York as the cold front arrives. The Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather
across these areas and mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging
winds.

Meanwhile, a record-breaking late-season heat wave will continue through
early this week across areas of central and southern California and the
Desert Southwest as a ridge of high pressure aloft persists over the
region. Forecast highs continue to soar into the upper 90s to low 100s
outside of the immediate coastal areas of central and southern California,
with high temperatures reaching as high as the low 110s for the interior
portions of the Desert Southwest. Numerous daily record-tying or
record-breaking high temperatures are expected to occur across the region
going through Monday. Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as
this persistent level of major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone
without adequate air-conditioning or hydration, and for those spending
greater time outdoors. While not quite as hot, highs will trend above
average again for most of the rest of the Intermountain West as well, with
highs in the 70s and low 80s for the northern Great Basin/Rockies and into
the mid-80s for the central Great Basin. These very warm temperatures will
also spread east out into the northern/central Plains through the early to
middle part of this week. Some areas of the northern Plains by Tuesday and
Wednesday will likely see high temperatures that are 20 to 25 degrees
above average, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s and low 80s.

Orrison/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php