Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 17 2025 - 00Z Wed Mar 19 2025

...Heavy mountain snow along the Cascades will spread southeast into the
Sierra Nevada and farther inland across Idaho into the Northern Rockies
through Monday...

...There is a slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms through this
evening from the lower Great Lakes southward, while a slight risk of
severe thunderstorms extends farther down the East Coast through northern
Florida Peninsula...

...A winter storm will begin to impact the northern and central Rockies
followed by the High Plains on Tuesday with increasing risk of wildfires
across the central and southern High Plains...

An intensifying low pressure system which is tracking quickly
northeastward across the lower Great Lakes into Canada will push a sharp
cold front across the entire East Coast region through tonight.  The
increasingly warm and unstable southerly flow ahead of the front will be
lifted by the strong dynamics ahead of an upper-level trough edging in
from the west.  These interactions will trigger lines of showers and
thunderstorms, some of which are expected to reach severe levels.  The
Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe
thunderstorms through this evening from the lower Great Lakes southward
toward the central Appalachians.  Areas closer to the coast should see a
better chance for the thunderstorms to pass through later tonight into the
early hours on Monday.  These thunderstorms could be accompanied with
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.  On Monday, the cold front will be heading east into the
Atlantic but will begin to slow down.  Southeastern New England could
still see thunderstorms passing through Monday morning as the front will
be slowing down further.  By Monday night into Tuesday, all of the East
Coast should have cleared out as a high pressure ridge builds in from the
west.

Meanwhile, active weather from the Pacific continues to move into Oregon
and northern California ahead of a landfalling cyclone.  This system is
currently bringing heavy rain for the lower elevation while heavy mountain
snow is impacting the Cascades.  The heavy snow in the Cascades will begin
to taper off later tonight, but the Sierra Nevada, northern Intermountain
West and the northern Rockies will be the next targets of heavy snow from
this system on Monday.  From Monday night into Tuesday, a winter storm
will begin to take shape across the northern and central Rockies and into
the nearby High Plains where a low pressure system is forecast to rapidly
develop and expand in size.  In addition, strong and gusty winds along
with mountain snow will accompany the passage of a cold front across the
Great Basin later Monday into early Tuesday.  The extent of the high winds
will likely expand on Tuesday across the central Rockies into the High
Plains as the low pressure system intensifies more rapidly over the
central Plains.  The high winds will be accompanied with very dry
conditions across the central to southern High Plains, which will raise
the concern of fire danger in these areas beginning on Monday along with a
rapid warm-up across the Plains.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php