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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0726Z Jun 12, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025 ...Heavy to Excessive Rainfall likely across parts of the southern Plains and Minnesota over the next couple of days... ...Hot weather continues out West with some moderation across the Pacific Northwest... The main thing making weather headlines through the end of the work week will be the widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms across much of the southern Plains, with a particular focus across the ArkLaTex region and also across portions of southeastern Texas. Multiple rounds of storms with heavy rainfall will be fueled by a moist low level jet, and moisture convergence along outflow boundaries will serve as focusing mechanisms for additional rounds of convection. There is a high likelihood of 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the ArkLaTex region and 3 to 5 inches for parts of southeast Texas through late Friday night. Therefore, a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall will be valid for much of Arkansas and smaller portions of surrounding states on Friday, and a Moderate Risk for southeast Texas on Thursday. Some severe thunderstorms are also possible here with the high instability and modest shear, and the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather from the Texas Coast to the greater Memphis metro area. Another area of moderate to heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of the Upper Midwest, mainly over central Minnesota Thursday evening into early Friday where 1 to 3 inches is currently forecast. This may be enough to result in some localized flooding issues, and WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday into Thursday night to account for this. This will be the result of moisture from the south intersecting a frontal boundary paired with a mid-level shortwave disturbance moving through the region. Farther west across the western High Plains, scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Friday from southern Montana to the Texas Panhandle as a mid-upper level shortwave tracks from the Pacific Northwest towards this region. Anomalous heat by mid-June standards will continue through Friday across much of the interior Western U.S. as an upper level ridge governs the overall weather pattern. The most impactful heat will be across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest where afternoon highs will reach 105 to 110 degrees, and Heat Risk reaching the moderate to locally major category. There are also some elevated fire weather concerns across portions of western Nevada, and also central Oregon and Washington on both Thursday and Friday owing to dry conditions and gusty winds. A cold front dropping southeast across the Pacific Northwest will result in an abatement of the ongoing heat and a return to more seasonable conditions for much of Washington and Oregon. The coolest areas in the country will be north of a frontal boundary across the northern Plains and Great Lakes areas. High temperatures in the 60s and even some upper 50s will be possible on Friday in the U.P. of Michigan and northern Wisconsin. Hamrick Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php