Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025

...Heavy to Excessive Rainfall likely across parts of the southern Plains
and Minnesota over the next couple of days...

...Hot weather continues out West with some moderation across the Pacific
Northwest...

The main thing making weather headlines through the end of the work week
will be the widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms across much
of the southern Plains, with a particular focus across the ArkLaTex region
and also across portions of southeastern Texas.  Multiple rounds of storms
with heavy rainfall will be fueled by a moist low level jet, and moisture
convergence along outflow boundaries will serve as focusing mechanisms for
additional rounds of convection.  There is a high likelihood of 2 to 4
inch rainfall totals across the ArkLaTex region and 3 to 5 inches for
parts of southeast Texas through late Friday night.  Therefore, a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall will be valid for much of Arkansas and smaller
portions of surrounding states on Friday, and a Moderate Risk for
southeast Texas on Thursday.  Some severe thunderstorms are also possible
here with the high instability and modest shear, and the Storm Prediction
Center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather from the Texas Coast to the
greater Memphis metro area.

Another area of moderate to heavy rainfall is also expected across
portions of the Upper Midwest, mainly over central Minnesota Thursday
evening into early Friday where 1 to 3 inches is currently forecast.  This
may be enough to result in some localized flooding issues, and WPC has a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday into Thursday night to
account for this.  This will be the result of moisture from the south
intersecting a frontal boundary paired with a mid-level shortwave
disturbance moving through the region.  Farther west across the western
High Plains, scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop on
Friday from southern Montana to the Texas Panhandle as a mid-upper level
shortwave tracks from the Pacific Northwest towards this region.

Anomalous heat by mid-June standards will continue through Friday across
much of the interior Western U.S. as an upper level ridge governs the
overall weather pattern.  The most impactful heat will be across the lower
elevations of the Desert Southwest where afternoon highs will reach 105 to
110 degrees, and Heat Risk reaching the moderate to locally major
category.  There are also some elevated fire weather concerns across
portions of western Nevada, and also central Oregon and Washington on both
Thursday and Friday owing to dry conditions and gusty winds.  A cold front
dropping southeast across the Pacific Northwest will result in an
abatement of the ongoing heat and a return to more seasonable conditions
for much of Washington and Oregon.  The coolest areas in the country will
be north of a frontal boundary across the northern Plains and Great Lakes
areas.  High temperatures in the 60s and even some upper 50s will be
possible on Friday in the U.P. of Michigan and northern Wisconsin.


Hamrick

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php