Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 18 2025 - 00Z Thu Feb 20 2025

...Record cold to spill further southward throughout much of the Plains by
midweek, with below average temperatures spanning across much of the
East...

...Winter storm to track across the central Plains and Mid-Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday before impacting the southern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday
with accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain...

...Areas of mountain snow and lower elevation rain forecast across the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies over the next few days...

A bitter cold arctic airmass is expected to continue impacting the
north-central U.S. while also spreading further south and east over the
next few days. As a potent high pressure system gradually slides from
south-central Canada into the northern Plains on Tuesday, low temperatures
dropping well below zero are forecast from Montana and the Dakotas to the
Upper Midwest and sections of the central Plains. When combined with light
to moderate winds, the coldest wind chills over the next few days are
forecast from northeast Montana to North Dakota, where it is anticipated
to feel as cold as 60 degrees below zero. This level of cold is life
threatening and could shortly lead to frostbite and hypothermia. By
Wednesday, the cold front marking the boundary between more seasonable
February temperatures and the arctic freezer will spill southward into
northern Mexico and the northern Gulf of America. This will lead to well
below average temperatures spanning the entire Plains and points eastward
by midweek, with the lone exception being parts of the Florida Peninsula.
Lows on Wednesday are forecast to dip into the single digits across much
of the Northeast, Midwest, and parts of the southern Plains, including
Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Additionally, highs are expected to remain
below freezing for many areas between central Texas and the southern
Mid-Atlantic on northward. Daily records for both overnight bitter lows
and afternoon cold highs are expected to be widespread from the Plains and
expanding into the Mississippi Valley. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold
Weather Advisories are currently extensive and span from the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest to central Texas. Be sure to dress in layers
including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside.

As the extremely cold airmass sinks south, a frontal system and weak area
of low pressure will provide a focus for wintry precipitation between the
central Plains and southern Mid-Atlantic through midweek. Starting tonight
and into the day on Tuesday, moderate to locally heavy snowfall is
forecast from parts of Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks of
Missouri and Arkansas, with somewhat lighter snow stretching into parts of
the Ohio and Tennessee valleys early Wednesday. Areas of freezing rain and
sleet are also likely to occur just south between central Oklahoma to
northern Mississippi. The heaviest snowfall amounts are currently forecast
near the border intersection of Missouri, Oklahoma, and Kansas, where
probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are between 60-80%. As the
system slides eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday, locally heavy rain
and isolated instances of flash flooding are possible along the Gulf
Coast. With the surface low eventually tracking just off the Southeast
coastline Wednesday evening, precipitation is forecast to spread across
much of the Carolinas and into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Here, heavy snow
is possible along the VA-NC border and the southern Delmarva Peninsula,
with impactful freezing rain and sleet most likely into southern and
southeast North Carolina, as well as neighboring portions of South
Carolina. This forecast remains somewhat uncertain with a notable
southward trend over the last few forecast cycles, so be sure to check
often for updated forecasts.

Elsewhere, heavy mountain snow and light lower elevation snow continues
across the northern Rockies through Tuesday as the next Pacific storm
system enters the Northwest early Wednesday. For the most part, this
precipitation is expected to remain beneficial outside of potentially
hazardous winter driving conditions at mountain passes. Lastly, cold winds
continuing over the Great Lakes is forecast to keep the lake-effect snow
machine open for business downwind of Lake Ontario, with an additional 6
to 8 inches of snowfall forecast along the southern lake-shore between
Rochester and Syracuse, NY.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php