Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 07 2025 - 00Z Wed Jul 09 2025

...Slow-moving thunderstorms will lead to additional threat of localized
flash flooding over saturated grounds in central Texas...

...Tropical Depression Chantal continues inland over the Carolinas
bringing very heavy rainfall and the risk of scattered flash flooding...

...Scattered thunderstorm chances with a severe weather and flash flood
threat expected along a frontal boundary stretching from the Northeast
west through the Midwest and into the Plains over the next couple of
days...

...Heat and humidity will expand across portions of the East Coast and
South over the next few days with widespread Moderate to Major Heat Risk
expected...

Thunderstorms continue this afternoon over portions of central to north
Texas as a remnant mid-level disturbance that has contributed to the
recent disastrous flooding remains in the region. Plentiful rich Gulf
moisture will support torrential downpours with rain rates upwards of
3"/hr and weak winds aloft will keep storm motions slow, leading to the
threat of very heavy rainfall totals. A Flood Watch as well as multiple
flash flooding warnings are currently in effect. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) remains in effect through tomorrow morning
as scattered instances of flash flooding remain possible. Scattered storms
are expected to continue into tomorrow (Monday) which will maintain at
least an isolated flash flooding threat particularly for already hard hit
areas where grounds remain saturated. The current expectation is that
rainfall chances going into Tuesday should be much more isolated.

Chantal made landfall earlier this morning along the coast of the
Carolinas and continues inland as a Tropical Depression along the South
Carolina/North Carolina border as of mid-Sunday afternoon. Bands of
thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall continue across
central/eastern North Carolina and into southern Virginia with a focus
along an inland frontal boundary stretching from central North Carolina
into south-central Virginia. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains
in effect for this region as very heavy rainfall totals of 4-6", possibly
higher, will bring the threat of scattered instances of flash flooding.
Chantal is expected to continue northward Monday bringing thunderstorm
chances deeper into the southern Mid-Atlantic, where heavy downpours and
isolated flash flooding can be expected. The system should dissipate by
Tuesday but remnant moisture may continue to lead to heavier showers
throughout the region.

Scattered thunderstorm chances are expected quite broadly across much of
the eastern/central U.S. the next couple of days including along a slow
moving cold front stretching from the Northeast westward into the Midwest.
For the rest of Sunday, the greatest thunderstorm chances are over
portions of northern New England as well as from the Lower Great Lakes
southwest into the Middle Missouri Valley. The front will continue a bit
southeastward on Monday, bringing chances more broadly into the Interior
Northeast back through the Lower Great Lakes and into the Ohio
Valley/Mid-South. Only a bit more southward progress is expected for
Tuesday as storm chances focus along the coastal Northeast and into the
Mid-Atlantic while continuing for the Ohio Valley/Mid-South as well as
back northward into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Seasonable Summer
moisture/instability will bring the threat for heavy downpours and
isolated flash flooding, particularly through the Mid-Atlantic and
vicinity where remnant higher moisture from Chantal may lead to higher
rain rates. Some severe weather will also be possible. To the west,
thunderstorm chances also continue across the High Plains along the front
and in the presence of moist upslope flow. There is a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center focused
along the central High Plains and adjacent central Plains through Sunday
evening for the threat of significant damaging winds as well as large
hail. An Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) is in effect Sunday across the same
region as well as northward into portions of the northern Plains for a
more widespread threat of damaging winds as well as very large hail and a
few tornadoes. Additional thunderstorm chances are expected across the
Upper Midwest as well as into the southern High Plains on Monday. Heavy
downpours will also bring a chance for some isolated flash flooding.

Hot and muggy weather is expected to expand in coverage across much of the
East Coast and South during the next couple of days ahead of the
slow-moving front and tropical moisture from Chantal moving into the
mid-Atlantic. Widespread Moderate to Major Heat Risk is in place
throughout the region, including many of the regions large population
centers, indicating a level of heat that can affect anyone without
effective cooling or hydration, especially those groups more sensitive to
heat. Progression of the cold front southward will bring some relief to
areas of the Interior Northwest southwest into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday.
Hotter temperatures are also expected to expand in coverage across much of
the Interior West and Desert Southwest over the next couple of days, with
the more oppressive heat expected across portions of the interior Pacific
Northwest/northern Great Basin as well as in the Desert Southwest.
Excessive Heat Watches/Warnings have been issued for the Desert Southwest
as highs are expected to climb into the 110s. More seasonable Summer
temperatures are forecast across the Plains and Midwest the next couple of
days, particularly over the southern Plains as clouds and precipitation
linger in the region.  

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php