Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 PM EDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 08 2022 - 00Z Wed Aug 10 2022

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New
England and Central/Southern Rockies from Monday into Tuesday morning...

...Dangerous heat across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Middle
Mississippi Valley, Central Plains, and Northeast Coast...

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Northeast to the Great Lakes,
then roughly southwestward to the Central High Plains, will slowly move to
Southern New England to the Ohio Valley and the Southern Plains by Tuesday.

Moisture pooling along the front will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley to
the Central High Plains that will move eastward with the front through
Tuesday. Some of the storms will produce heavy rain. Therefore, The WPC
has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley
through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous
areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially
affecting larger rivers.

Furthermore, monsoonal moisture will trigger diurnal showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Southwest and the
Central/Southern Rockies on Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and parts of the
Central/Southern Rockies and Central High Plains through Monday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

On Monday, the front will extend into the Northeast, producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the region. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over parts of Northern New England from Monday into Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
The excessive rainfall threat decreases to a Marginal Risk on Tuesday from
the Northeast to the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.

In addition, monsoonal moisture will continue to trigger diurnal showers
and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Central/Southern
Rockies on Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies from Monday
into Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.

On Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall will move southwestward over
parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. Therefore, on Tuesday, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest/
Great Basin and Southeastern California. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a weakening upper-level high over the Central Plains and Middle
Mississippi Valley will aid in allowing temperatures to reach into the
upper nineties to low hundreds over the region and along with high
humidity, have prompted Heat Advisories over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Central Plains through Sunday evening. Furthermore,
weak ridging over the Northeast will allow temperatures to rise into the
low to mid-nineties and dew points in the upper sixties to low seventies
have prompted Heat Advisories over parts of the Northeast Coast to parts
of Lake Ontario through Sunday evening, too.

However, upper-level ridging will increase over the Pacific Northwest on
Monday. The ridging will allow the temperature to rise into the
mid-nineties to mid-hundreds prompting Excessive heat warnings and Heat
Advisories to start from noon local time on Monday into late on Tuesday.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php