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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1935Z Mar 28, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 334 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 00Z Fri Mar 29 2024 - 00Z Sun Mar 31 2024 ...Unsettled weather for the West, with a late season Atmospheric River impacting California into the weekend... ...Precipiation chances continue for New England Friday... ...Warming trend for portions of the central/eastern U.S. into the weekend... Higher elevation/mountain snow showers and lower elevation coastal/valley rain will continue across the West Thursday evening and into the day Friday as a frontal system moves through the region, eventually stalling, and underneath energetic upper-level flow aloft. Precipitation amounts, especially further inland, should remain mostly light to moderate except in the vicinity of the boundary across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies were some higher snow accumulations and more widespread lower elevation showers are expected. Then, along the West Coast, an amplifying upper-level trough/deepening closed low and the approach of a stronger Pacific system will help usher in a late season influx of higher moisture/Atmospheric River into central and southern California beginning by late Friday. The best overlap of moisture and onshore/upslope flow will initially be along the Transverse Ranges, where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place through Saturday morning. A few inches of rainfall may lead to some flooding concerns, especially along terrain sensitive areas. The threat will continue into the day Saturday, expanding southward along the Peninsular Ranges, with another Slight Risk in effect as additional rainfall, on top of increasingly saturated conditions, will bring the threat for more instances of flooding. Some heavier rainfall is expected over portions of central California, and spreading into the Lower Colorado Basin by Saturday, but the flood threat looks to remain lower for these regions for now. Some heavier snow is also forecast for higher elevations of the Sierra Friday and into the weekend. In the East, showers along the Coast should begin to come to an end from south to north in the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic Thursday evening as a cold front pushes away from the coast. Rain, heavy at times, will linger into Friday for coastal New England as an area of low pressure intensifies offshore and continues to advect additional moisture in. While the rain will not be particularly intense, instances of flooding will remain a concern with some higher water levels due to additional snowmelt/runoff expected. The greatest risk will be through Friday morning, with a Slight Risk in effect, though some threat may linger into Saturday for Downeast Maine. Further inland, some snow will mix in, with some light accumulations possible through northern Maine. Precipiation should taper off through the day Saturday as the low pressure system moves away. An upper-level shortwave and accompanying surface frontal system passing through the Northern Plains will bring a wintry mix Friday, with some increasing chances for accumulating snowfall along the Canadian border from North Dakota into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. As the wave moves further east, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary through portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Increasingly moist southerly flow may bring some more moderate to heavy showers as well as some thunderstorm chances by Saturday evening. An expanding area of warmer, above average temperatures is expected for portions of the central U.S. Thursday, from the Southern Plains northeastward into the Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley, as upper-level heights rise across the region. Some chilly morning lows into the 30s are forecast for the Tennessee Valley into the Southern Appalachians Thursday morning, with Frost Advisories in place for portions of the region. However, temperatures will be warmer by Friday afternoon, and the broader warm-up with above average temperatures will expand eastward across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday. Highs will remain closer to average in the Northeast and below average and chilly into the Northern Plains behind a cold front. Temperatures will also be below average across much of the West, particularly for California and into the Desert Southwest, as the upper-level troughing remains in place and precipitation chances continue. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php