Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 01 2025 - 12Z Thu Jul 03 2025

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains and Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday and southern Mid-Atlantic,
on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday...

On Tuesday, a front extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the
Central/Southern Plains will move eastward to the East Coast by Wednesday
evening. Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of
the boundary over parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of tornadoes and hail.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Central/Southern Appalachians on Tuesday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into Wednesday morning. Numerous
flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows
in or near recently burned areas. 

Similarly, on Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the front moving across the Southern Appalachians, southern
Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Tennessee Valley.

Moreover, upper-level energy and moisture over the Southern High Plains
will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the
region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern High Plains through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Also, moisture from the Gulf will stream into southern Texas, creating
heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of southern Texas/Western Gulf Coast through
Wednesday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Further, moisture from the Gulf of
America will stream northward into the Rockies, producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Rockies.

Also, an upper-level low just off the Central/Southern California Coast on
Tuesday will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of
Northern California and Oregon. However, upper-level ridging over parts of
the Pacific Northwest has prompted Heat Advisories over parts of
Washington State, Oregon, and Idaho through Tuesday evening. Furthermore,
as the upper-level ridging extends into the Southwest, Extreme Heat
Warnings are posted over parts of the Southwest on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, moisture pooling along the front over the East Coast will
produce showers and thunderstorms along the Coastal States. In particular,
the storms over the Mid-Atlantic Region will produce heavy rain over parts
of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic
from Wednesday through Thursday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Additionally, on Wednesday, a front moving southward out of Central Canada
will move into the Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley, producing showers
and strong to severe thunderstorms over the region. Furthermore, on
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, a third front will move onshore over
the Pacific Northwest and inland to the Northern Rockies/Northern
Intermountain Region and into Northern California. The boundary will
trigger showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Rockies/Northern Intermountain Region. Moreover, on Wednesday,
moisture and daytime heating will create showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Great Basin, the Southwest, and the Central/Southern Rockies.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php