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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0756Z Jun 10, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 10 2023 - 12Z Mon Jun 12 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms forecast across parts of the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today... ...Scattered flash flood threat shifts from the Midwest today to the Ohio/Tennessee valleys on Sunday, while lingering heavy rain chances remain over the central High Plains and ArkLaTex into early next week... ...Triple digit heat builds into much of Texas over the next few days... An active summer weather pattern is expected to continue over the next few days, with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms impacting the Nation. Starting in the southern Plains, the greatest chances for severe weather exists from eastern Texas to the ArkLaTex today as a shortwave trough ejects into the region out of northwest Mexico. A fresh influx of warm/moist air from the western Gulf of Mexico will aid in strong thunderstorms to develop initially over central Texas and progress eastward. Clusters of thunderstorms will be capable of containing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather for this region through early Sunday. Thunderstorms may also contain intense rainfall rates, which prompts the potential for scattered areas of flash flooding over eastern Texas and the ArkLaTex through tonight. Elsewhere, a developing low pressure system over the central Plains is expected to push east this weekend and provide a focus for pockets of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm chances. Attached frontal boundaries initially spanning from the eastern Gulf Coast to the northern High Plains will also allow for areas of convergence and a scattered threat for flash flooding. For today, a few inches of rainfall are possible over the Mid-Missouri Valley and northern High Plains, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued. By Sunday, the aforementioned low pressure system is expected to progress into the Ohio Valley and spread thunderstorm chances into the region and nearby Tennessee Valley. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible, maybe near small streams and urban corridors. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible from central Arkansas to middle Tennessee. Meanwhile, a warm front eventually lifting into the Mid-Atlantic by Monday and low pressure system over the lower Great Lakes will also allow for showers and thunderstorms to spread north into the Northeast. Much of the region from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast has been starved of rainfall as of late, so any rain could prove to be more beneficial as opposed to hazardous. Farther west, a lingering flash flooding threat is anticipated across the central High Plains on Sunday and Monday due to scattered thunderstorms occurring near wet antecedent ground conditions. Heavy rain is also expected to return to the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on Monday near a stationary front. The temperature outlook across the Lower 48 through Monday consists of sustained cooler temperatures over the Southwest, as well as over the Great Lakes and central High Plains by Sunday into next week. Meanwhile, triple digit heat is expected to build into the Lone Star State this weekend, with well above average temperatures also found throughout the Pacific Northwest. The upper-level pattern responsible for these daytime temperatures consist of upper-level lows over the Southwest and Great Lakes, with ridging over the south-central and northwestern United States. Widespread highs into the upper 90s and low 100s are forecast across central/southern Texas through Monday, with heat indices nearing 110 degrees across far southern sections of the state. Residents are advised to take early-season heat seriously and follow proper heat safety tips. Snell Graphics available at