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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0834Z Feb 11, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 11 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 13 2025 ...Heavy snow over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday; Heavy snow over the Central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday... ...Rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians with 0. 50 inches of ice accumulations possible on Tuesday and Wednesday: Rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern Plains to the Northeast with 0. 10 inches of ice accumulations possible on Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southern Appalachians on Tuesday and Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast on Wednesday... ...Temperatures will be 25 to 35 degrees below average across the Northern Rockies eastward to the Upper Great Lakes and southward to the Central High Plains... On Tuesday, an Arctic high over the Northern Plains will slowly move southward to the Central /Southern Plains by Thursday. The cold air associated with the high will bring temperatures 25 to 35 degrees below average across the Northern Rockies eastward to the Upper Great Lakes and southward to the Central High Plains. The cold temperatures have prompted an Extreme Cold Warning over the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains. South of the Artic high, a front extending from the Southeast to the Southern Rockies and then to the Great Basin will spawn a wave of low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley that moves northeastward, almost to the Southern Appalachians, by late Tuesday night. Additionally, a second wave of low pressure just off the Southeast Coast moves northward to near Cape Hatteras also by late Tuesday night and then moves out over the Western Atlantic. Moisture from the Gulf will stream northward over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, intersecting the cold air moving south over the Plains, producing an area of moderate to heavy snow over Central Rockies/Plains into parts of the Middle Mississippi. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, a significant Winter Storm begins Tuesday. The storm will produce heavy snow from northeast Kentucky into West Virginia through the I-95 corridor from Richmond to Philadelphia. Snowfall rates will sometimes reach 1 inch per hour, with heavy, wet snow totals of 4-8 inches expected. Isolated power outages are possible, and travel may become extremely hazardous (especially during the Tuesday evening commute). In addition, a long-duration freezing rain event is expected to occur across portions of the Central Appalachians, especially within the Blue Ridge from far northwest North Carolina into southwest and central Virginia. There is a high chance (60-80%) of 0.25 inch plus for ice accumulations in these areas and a medium chance (30-50%) for 0.50 inch plus of ice accumulations. The freezing rain will result in dangerous travel and may cause power outages and tree damage. Further, rain will develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and southern Mid-Atlantic and will expand into parts of the Southeast by late Tuesday night. Furthermore, a second wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday morning and move northeastward to southeast Ontario, Canada, by Thursday. On Wednesday, the system will produce severe showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail. Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will have heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Furthermore, heavy snow will develop on Wednesday from parts of the Central Plains to the Great Lakes, with snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour and a (>50% chance) of producing at least 5 inches of total snow accumulation. A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain over central/eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks will produce ice accumulation of a tenth of an inch or more. Any amount of freezing rain could make for hazardous travel on untreated surfaces. One more system will start to move into the West Coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The Storm will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and California. Elsewhere, lake-effect snow will wind down downwind from Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Ontario on Tuesday. The heaviest snowfall will be over the Keweenaw Peninsula in Northern Michigan and the Tug Hill Plateau in New York State. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php