Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 11 2025 - 00Z Sun Jul 13 2025

...Strong storms and heavy rainfall to impact parts of Iowa eastward to
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois tonight into Friday...

...Areas around Colorado, New Mexico, and the southern Plains will have to
watch for flash flooding potential along a cold front moving into the
region on Saturday...

...Heat out West will build over the next couple of days, bringing
hazardous heat risks to Pacific residents...

Through this evening and into Friday afternoon, a shortwave trough and
approaching cold front will provide synoptic forcing for sever weather and
heavy rain across the upper Midwest, particularly from Iowa to points
around Chicago. Clusters of storms could organize and contain high
rainfall rates. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is active for areas
mentioned above for the rest of today and will continue tomorrow as storms
re-fire in similar areas. 2-3 inches of rainfall could be observed,
locally heavier amounts are certainly possible, for locales in the
Midwest. Chicago will be a sensitive urban area to watch for flooding
impacts. As for severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight
Risk for severe weather from Missouri to southern Michigan on Friday.
Ample instability and moderate wind shear will support the potential for
storms to contain hail and then transition to a straight line wind threat
as storms congeal, according to SPC. A tornado or two is also possible.

The east coast will see summer thunderstorms with a unstable and humid air
mass. Some thunderstorms could be locally strong Friday across the
Southeast as wet down-burst potential brings the threat of gusty winds.
Some low lying areas could see ponding as rainfall rates will be high with
pulse afternoon convection.

Friday and Saturday will see a cold front move southward across the Plains
and begin to slow down across the southern Plains and areas around
Colorado and New Mexico. Storms may organize and bring strong, gusty
winds. Additionally, the front will be slowing down and providing lift for
heavy rainfall potential. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is forecast
for Oklahoma, Texas, and across the front range of Colorado and New Mexico
on Saturday.

The other big weather story will be the heat building across the West. The
Desert Southwest should begin to break from the excessive heat, but
temperatures will remain above average still and very hot with
temperatures around 110 F likely. The California Valleys will be entering
the 100s over the weekend and Heat Advisories are in effect. Into northern
California and southern Oregon, temperatures will be feeling over 100.
This has prompted an extreme Heat Watch. Another hot spot will be interior
Washington and Oregon as highs will be in the upper 90s and may eclipse
100 by Saturday and Sunday.Stay hydrated and take cool breaks in the
afternoon.

Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php