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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2033Z Oct 26, 2021)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 427 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Valid 00Z Wed Oct 27 2021 - 00Z Fri Oct 29 2021 ...The second phase of a nor'easter expected to bring high winds and heavy rain to coastal New England tonight into Wednesday... ...An anomalous low pressure system expected to trigger severe weather over the Plains on Wednesday, and stormy conditions across the South, Southeast, and the Midwest on Thursday... ...Wet pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies through midweek... An active weather pattern will bring rainy to stormy conditions across many parts of the country during the next couple of days. First of all, a complex low pressure system that brought heavy rain near and around the New York City area this morning is forecast to intensify rapidly as it rotates back toward the southern New England coast tonight. This second phase of the nor'easter is expected to pack quite a punch of very strong winds together with bands of heavy rain as they rotate around the cyclone center and push onshore tonight. Winds gusting to hurricane force is possible later tonight near Cape Cod as the center of the nor'easter edges closer. All of southern New England westward to New York City and northern New Jersey will be under the threat of flash flooding and coastal flooding through tonight into early Wednesday. The cyclone center is forecast to begin moving back out to sea later on Wednesday with winds and rain gradually tapering off Wednesday night into early Thursday over much of New England. Meanwhile, another energetic low pressure system is developing over the High Plains. This system will first ingest moisture and unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico to trigger rounds of severe thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains ahead of a vigorous cold front and a dry line later tonight into Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the threat of severe weather will shift into the Deep South and down near the Gulf Coast as an anomalously large and deep low pressure system continues to develop in the mid-section of the country. An axis of moderate to heavy rain is also expected to extend north of the system across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest. By Thursday evening, widespread moderate to locally heavy rain is forecast to engulf the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, the lower Great Lakes, as well as into the Mid-Atlantic region. Some locations in the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley could see the barometer dipping to record low levels for the month of October. For the Pacific Northwest, a series of low pressure systems moving onshore will prolong the wet pattern for several more days. Low elevation rain and high elevation heavy snow will continue to impact much of the coastal Pacific Northwest and Cascades respectfully. A couple inches of rain are possible for the low elevations while 1-2 feet of snow is likely across much of the highest peaks of the northern Cascades. Lighter snow amounts are expected over much of the high Rocky Mountain peaks. Cool conditions across much of the West today will return to seasonal levels on Wednesday behind the developing cyclone over the central U.S. Meanwhile, dry conditions will prevail over the Southwest. Kong Graphics are available at