Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 17 2019 - 00Z Tue Nov 19 2019

...Powerful coastal storm to produce heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal
flooding along the Mid-Atlantic coast...

...Wintry conditions expected across the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday and
into the interior Northeast by Monday...

...Cooler than normal temperatures to persist across the eastern U.S.,
warmer than normal temperatures to engulf the West...

A strengthening coastal storm is producing gusty winds, scattered showers,
and high surf along the Southeast U.S. coast. This coastal low pressure
system will gradually deepen throughout the weekend and will work in
tandem with a strong dome of high pressure over New England to generate
strong onshore winds. This will result in battering surf, beach erosion,
and coastal flooding along the coasts and low lying areas of eastern North
Carolina and southeast Virginia. High wind warnings and wind advisories
are in place for parts of these aforementioned areas with wind gusts of 50
to 60 mph possible. As the storm begins to track northward on Sunday,
conditions will gradually improve but onshore winds will continue along
the Mid-Atlantic coast, leading to localized areas of coastal flooding as
far north as southern Long Island.

A disturbance tracking across the Midwest today will generate snow showers
from northeastern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan tonight and into Sunday. A wintry mix may lead to slick spots
on roads in parts of central Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. Farther east, the
coastal storm presently off the Southeast coast will track northeastward
Sunday evening, sending precipitation into a cold air mass located over
the Northeast. This will lead to areas of freezing rain and freezing
drizzle for interior locations of the Northeast while coastal areas of New
England and the Mid-Atlantic stay all rain. Please see our winter weather
page for the latest probabilities on potential ice accumulations.

The eastern U.S. will remain mired in a regime of below normal
temperatures with a few daily record low temperatures possible in parts of
the interior Northeast and eastern Great Lakes Sunday morning. Temperature
departures in most eastern regions will average 5 to 15 degrees below
normal. Meanwhile farther west, above normal temperatures will set up shop
from the Plains to the West Coast. Temperature departures across the Great
Basin and much of California will range from 10 to 20 degrees above
normal, with a few locations in the Desert Southwest making a run at 90
degrees both Sunday and Monday.

Mullinax


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php