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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1957Z Nov 16, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 256 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019 Valid 00Z Sun Nov 17 2019 - 00Z Tue Nov 19 2019 ...Powerful coastal storm to produce heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding along the Mid-Atlantic coast... ...Wintry conditions expected across the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday and into the interior Northeast by Monday... ...Cooler than normal temperatures to persist across the eastern U.S., warmer than normal temperatures to engulf the West... A strengthening coastal storm is producing gusty winds, scattered showers, and high surf along the Southeast U.S. coast. This coastal low pressure system will gradually deepen throughout the weekend and will work in tandem with a strong dome of high pressure over New England to generate strong onshore winds. This will result in battering surf, beach erosion, and coastal flooding along the coasts and low lying areas of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. High wind warnings and wind advisories are in place for parts of these aforementioned areas with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. As the storm begins to track northward on Sunday, conditions will gradually improve but onshore winds will continue along the Mid-Atlantic coast, leading to localized areas of coastal flooding as far north as southern Long Island. A disturbance tracking across the Midwest today will generate snow showers from northeastern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan tonight and into Sunday. A wintry mix may lead to slick spots on roads in parts of central Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. Farther east, the coastal storm presently off the Southeast coast will track northeastward Sunday evening, sending precipitation into a cold air mass located over the Northeast. This will lead to areas of freezing rain and freezing drizzle for interior locations of the Northeast while coastal areas of New England and the Mid-Atlantic stay all rain. Please see our winter weather page for the latest probabilities on potential ice accumulations. The eastern U.S. will remain mired in a regime of below normal temperatures with a few daily record low temperatures possible in parts of the interior Northeast and eastern Great Lakes Sunday morning. Temperature departures in most eastern regions will average 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Meanwhile farther west, above normal temperatures will set up shop from the Plains to the West Coast. Temperature departures across the Great Basin and much of California will range from 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with a few locations in the Desert Southwest making a run at 90 degrees both Sunday and Monday. Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php