Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 10 2023 - 12Z Mon Jun 12 2023

...Severe thunderstorms forecast across parts of the southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley today...

...Scattered flash flood threat shifts from the Midwest today to the
Ohio/Tennessee valleys on Sunday, while lingering heavy rain chances
remain over the central High Plains and ArkLaTex into early next week...

...Triple digit heat builds into much of Texas over the next few days...

An active summer weather pattern is expected to continue over the next few
days, with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms impacting the
Nation. Starting in the southern Plains, the greatest chances for severe
weather exists from eastern Texas to the ArkLaTex today as a shortwave
trough ejects into the region out of northwest Mexico. A fresh influx of
warm/moist air from the western Gulf of Mexico will aid in strong
thunderstorms to develop initially over central Texas and progress
eastward. Clusters of thunderstorms will be capable of containing damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather for this region
through early Sunday. Thunderstorms may also contain intense rainfall
rates, which prompts the potential for scattered areas of flash flooding
over eastern Texas and the ArkLaTex through tonight.

Elsewhere, a developing low pressure system over the central Plains is
expected to push east this weekend and provide a focus for pockets of
heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm chances. Attached frontal
boundaries initially spanning from the eastern Gulf Coast to the northern
High Plains will also allow for areas of convergence and a scattered
threat for flash flooding. For today, a few inches of rainfall are
possible over the Mid-Missouri Valley and northern High Plains, where a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued. By Sunday,
the aforementioned low pressure system is expected to progress into the
Ohio Valley and spread thunderstorm chances into the region and nearby
Tennessee Valley. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible, maybe near small streams and urban corridors. Damaging wind
gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible from central Arkansas to
middle Tennessee. Meanwhile, a warm front eventually lifting into the
Mid-Atlantic by Monday and low pressure system over the lower Great Lakes
will also allow for showers and thunderstorms to spread north into the
Northeast. Much of the region from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast has
been starved of rainfall as of late, so any rain could prove to be more
beneficial as opposed to hazardous. Farther west, a lingering flash
flooding threat is anticipated across the central High Plains on Sunday
and Monday due to scattered thunderstorms occurring near wet antecedent
ground conditions. Heavy rain is also expected to return to the southern
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on Monday near a stationary front.

The temperature outlook across the Lower 48 through Monday consists of
sustained cooler temperatures over the Southwest, as well as over the
Great Lakes and central High Plains by Sunday into next week. Meanwhile,
triple digit heat is expected to build into the Lone Star State this
weekend, with well above average temperatures also found throughout the
Pacific Northwest. The upper-level pattern responsible for these daytime
temperatures consist of upper-level lows over the Southwest and Great
Lakes, with ridging over the south-central and northwestern United States.
Widespread highs into the upper 90s and low 100s are forecast across
central/southern Texas through Monday, with heat indices nearing 110
degrees across far southern sections of the state. Residents are advised
to take early-season heat seriously and follow proper heat safety tips.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php