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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0758Z Oct 19, 2018)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 19 2018 - 12Z Sun Oct 21 2018 ...Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding expected across central and south Texas... ...Scattered rain associated with a cold front passing through the Northeast to the lower Mississippi Valley... The wet pattern continues for central and south Texas as moisture overrides a stationary front hugging the western Gulf coast. The heaviest rainfall today will be along the middle Texas coast in addition to the DFW region southward into the Hill Country and south central Texas. Because of this, flash flood watches and flood warnings remain in effect. By Saturday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur in central and south Texas; however, the bulk of heavy rain will be in deep south Texas. This region of Texas can also expect the heavy rain to continue into Sunday. Flash flooding will be a concern for these areas. A cold front will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today--approaching the Northeast by Saturday. Showers are expected along the front, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Additionally, as lingering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico gets pulled northward towards this front, showers are expected ahead of the front later tonight and into early Saturday morning which will extend from the central Appalachians to the lower Mississippi Valley. Cold air filtering in behind the boundary may also allow for light snow showers across the Great Lakes and the Upper Midwest through the weekend. Broad upper level troughing and surface high pressure will keep most of the eastern half of the U.S. below normal for high temperatures. After a very chilly start to Friday morning for the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and central Appalachians, where some of the areas are receiving freeze warnings, low temperatures will rebound to near normal by the weekend. Texas can also expect below normal temperatures due to the active, wet pattern in place. Out west, upper level ridging will promote warmer than normal temperatures--in some places almost 20 degrees above normal for parts of the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. Because of these warm temperatures, low humidities and gusty Santa Ana winds, fire weather remains critical for portions of southern California--including the greater Los Angeles area today. Reinhart/Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php