Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 25 2024 - 00Z Sat Apr 27 2024

...Unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances will continue to
expand across much of the central United States over the next several
days...

...Active fire weather pattern to emerge over the southern High Plains on
Thursday...

...Above average temperatures shift from the Great Basin to the Plains,
while the West and East remain cool through the end of the week...

An increasingly active weather pattern is beginning to unfold across the
mid-section of the country as an upper-level trough from the subtropical
eastern Pacific continues to head toward Baja California and the
Southwest.  This trough is expected to interact with warm and moist air
returning from the Gulf of Mexico and produce an expanding area of showers
and thunderstorms gradually lifting northward of a warm front.  The
initial stages of rain/thunderstorm formation are setting up across
Oklahoma into western Kansas this afternoon.  Combined with a southern
High Plains dryline, a few developing thunderstorms could turn severe
tonight from West Texas to central Oklahoma, in addition to the chances
for isolated flash flooding. A greater severe weather threat is expected
to expand across the central Plains on Thursday as a surface cyclone
rapidly deepens in response to the approaching upper level trough. The
aforementioned warm front is expected to continue lifting northward while
the High Plains dryline pushes east. This environment is anticipated to
produce numerous thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains,
with scattered storms turning severe. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather across parts of
southwest/south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma into the eastern Texas
Panhandle. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong
tornadoes will all be possible. Multiple rounds of heavy rain could also
lead to scattered flash flooding, which has prompted a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of Excessive Rainfall across parts of northeast Oklahoma, eastern
Kansas, western Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. By Friday, the low
pressure system is forecast to deepen and slide east across the central
Plains while shower and thunderstorm chances also push eastward into the
upper Midwest, mid- and lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the southern
Plains.  Gusty winds will also expand across the central U.S. as the low
pressure system intensifies.

Behind the dryline across the southern High Plains, the combination of
very low relative humidity and gusty winds are expected to raise fire
danger to critical level on Thursday and Friday. Any fires that develop
will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.
Additionally, gusty winds up to 55 mph could lead to areas of blowing dust.

Elsewhere, precipitation chances will be found across the Northeast into
the Mid-Atlantic into this evening with the passage of a pair of cold
fronts. Colder air behind the fronts could change the rain to a period of
wet snow or snow showers across northern New England before ending this
evening.  Meanwhile, unsettled weather is expected to persist over the
West, Great Basin, and Rockies over the next few days with the passage of
the upper trough. Most precipiation is expected to remain mostly light,
with embedded downpours and high-elevation heavy snow by Friday across the
Rockies. This active weather will also accompany with a cooling trend
throughout the West in contrast to the spring warmth recently across the
region. Chilly weather is also forecast across the Northeast through the
end of the week as high pressure builds southward from Canada. Low
temperatures could dip below freezing on Thursday morning and have
prompted Freeze Watches to be issued from the lower Great Lakes to
southern New England. Most of the above average warmth will be found
throughout the Plains outside of areas experiencing prolonged periods of
rainfall, with highs into the 80s remaining across the Southern Tier
States into Friday.

The Pacific Northwest should be the wettest region across the West through
the next couple of days as a Pacific low pressure system moves onshore. 
The Coastal Ranges as well as the Cascades could receive a couple of
inches of rainfall with heavy wet snow possible across the higher
elevations.

Kong/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php