Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 27 2021 - 00Z Fri Oct 29 2021

...The second phase of a nor'easter expected to bring high winds and heavy
rain to coastal New England tonight into Wednesday...

...An anomalous low pressure system expected to trigger severe weather
over the Plains on Wednesday, and stormy conditions across the South,
Southeast, and the Midwest on Thursday...

...Wet pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies through
midweek...

An active weather pattern will bring rainy to stormy conditions across
many parts of the country during the next couple of days.  First of all, a
complex low pressure system that brought heavy rain near and around the
New York City area this morning is forecast to intensify rapidly as it
rotates back toward the southern New England coast tonight.  This second
phase of the nor'easter is expected to pack quite a punch of very strong
winds together with bands of heavy rain as they rotate around the cyclone
center and push onshore tonight.  Winds gusting to hurricane force is
possible later tonight near Cape Cod as the center of the nor'easter edges
closer.  All of southern New England westward to New York City and
northern New Jersey will be under the threat of flash flooding and
coastal flooding through tonight into early Wednesday.  The cyclone center
is forecast to begin moving back out to sea later on Wednesday with winds
and rain gradually tapering off Wednesday night into early Thursday over
much of New England.

Meanwhile, another energetic low pressure system is developing over the
High Plains.  This system will first ingest moisture and unstable air from
the Gulf of Mexico to trigger rounds of severe thunderstorms across the
central and southern Plains ahead of a vigorous cold front and a dry line
later tonight into Wednesday.  By Wednesday night, the threat of severe
weather will shift into the Deep South and down near the Gulf Coast as an
anomalously large and deep low pressure system continues to develop in the
mid-section of the country.  An axis of moderate to heavy rain is also
expected to extend north of the system across the Mid-Mississippi Valley
into the Midwest.  By Thursday evening, widespread moderate to locally
heavy rain is forecast to engulf the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, the lower
Great Lakes, as well as into the Mid-Atlantic region.  Some locations in
the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley could see the barometer dipping to
record low levels for the month of October.

For the Pacific Northwest, a series of low pressure systems moving onshore
will prolong the wet pattern for several more days.  Low elevation rain
and high elevation heavy snow will continue to impact much of the coastal
Pacific Northwest and Cascades respectfully.  A couple inches of rain are
possible for the low elevations while 1-2 feet of snow is likely across
much of the highest peaks of the northern Cascades.  Lighter snow amounts
are expected over much of the high Rocky Mountain peaks.  Cool conditions
across much of the West today will return to seasonal levels on Wednesday
behind the developing cyclone over the central U.S.  Meanwhile, dry
conditions will prevail over the Southwest.

Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php