Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
Valid 00Z Mon Sep 16 2019 - 00Z Wed Sep 18 2019
...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
...Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the
Northern High Plains...
A front extending from the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast roughly westward to
the Great Lakes then northwestward to the Northern High Plains will move
southward to the Southeast while draping north of Tropical Storm HUMBERTO
over the Atlantic by Tuesday evening. The western parts of the boundary
will have a wave of low pressure and associated front that will move from
the Northern Rockies/Northern California eastward to the Northern/Central
Plains and extending into the Great Basin by Tuesday. Rain associated
with the boundary will develop over parts of the Great Lakes into the
Northeast on Sunday evening with showers and thunderstorms developing over
parts of the Great Lakes into the Western Ohio Valley overnight Sunday.
Rain will return on Monday over parts of the Lower Great Lakes into New
England as showers and thunderstorms develop over parts of the Ohio
Valley. Overnight Monday the precipitation will end until Tuesday evening
as showers and thunderstorms develop over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley.
Meanwhile, rain will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest into
Northern California on Sunday evening. Overnight Sunday, the rain will
move into Central California then into parts of the Great Basin by Monday
evening. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
interior Pacific Northwest on Monday. Overnight Monday, rain will tapper
off over the interior Northwest as rain moves into parts of the Northern
Rockies on Tuesday.
Furthermore, upper-level energy and monsoonal moisture will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest into the
Southern Rockies through to Tuesday morning. Heavy rain associated with
the thunderstorms will produce mainly localized scattered flash flooding
on Sunday evening.
In addition, upper-level ridging will aid in producing temperatures that
are 15 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the Northern High Plains.
Additionally, the upper-level ridging and dry conditions have spawned Red
Flag Warnings over much of the Great Basin into parts of California and
the Central Rockies. Tropical moisture and an upper-level disturbance
will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms along the Central/Western
Gulf Coast through Tuesday. The tropical moisture will also aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms over Florida through Sunday evening.
Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to move northeastward out over the
Atlantic away from the United States. The National Hurricane Center has
most up to date information regarding Humberto.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php