Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Valid 12Z Mon Sep 28 2020 - 12Z Wed Sep 30 2020

...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue along the West
Coast...

...Heavy showers and to march across the eastern U.S. during the first
half of the week...

...A strong cold front to bring much below normal temperatures across much
of the central U.S....

Wildfires raging in parts of California unfortunately reside under
favorable fire weather conditions with high pressure anchored across the
western U.S. helping to generate strong offshore winds. Critical fire
weather conditions and Red Flag Warnings are in place across much of
Northern California and the coastal ranges of Southern California. Fire
weather conditions should improve across Northern California by Tuesday,
but elevated fire weather conditions are likely to stick around in
Southern California into mid-week. While winds are likely to lessen in the
coming days, high temperatures soar to much above normal levels with
record heat possible along portions of the West Coast on Tuesday.

To the east, showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue developing
along and behind a cold front as tracks through the eastern third of the
U.S. the first half of the week. Heavy thunderstorms may produce excessive
rainfall in parts of the southern Appalachians and along the Southeast
coast today. The front is forecast to hit the breaks as it reaches the
East Coast on Tuesday, which along with increasingly rich moisture ahead
of it, raises the threat for heavy rainfall accumulations spreading north
from the Southeast into the Northeast by late Tuesday. A Slight Risk for
flash flooding has been issued from the Carolinas to the northern
Mid-Atlantic in Tuesday. The cold front progresses so slowly that a
marginal risk is also in place from the Carolinas to New England on
Wednesday, thus keeping heavy rain and thunderstorms in the forecast
through mid-week.

Temperature-wise, above normal temperatures stick around through Monday
from the eastern Ohio valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, while persisting
through Tuesday across the Northeast. Following a weekend of well above
normal temperatures, Monday is forecast to be dramatically cooler across
the Nation's Heartland and the Rockies. This large dome of below normal
temperatures advances east on Tuesday into the Southeast and the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys where highs will struggle to get out of the 60s. By
Wednesday, the much below normal air-mass makes its way into the
Mid-Atlantic while another cold front ushers in a reinforcing shot of
below normal temperatures across the North-Central U.S. on Wednesday.

Mullinax

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php