Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 16 2019 - 00Z Thu Jul 18 2019

...Tropical Depression Barry remains a flooding threat for the Lower to
Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley...

...Severe weather and flash flooding are possible in the north-central
U.S...

Tropical depression Barry is expected to transition to a post-tropical
cyclone tonight as it moves slowly northeastward across Arkansas. Heavy
rainfall of an additional 3 to 6 inches is possible in its vicinity and
along trailing rain bands.  Persistent heavy downpours will lead to
continued flooding and flash flooding concerns across the Lower
Mississippi Valley.  A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for
the rest of today across parts of Louisiana, far southeastern Texas, and
far southwestern Mississippi, with a Slight Risk extending northward to
the bootheel of Missouri. As Barry moves northeastward on Tuesday, the
flash flooding threat will stretch from Arkansas into parts of the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, where there is a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall. A brief tornado or two is also possible. 

As a frontal system moves across the north-central U.S. and then stalls,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast there. Flash flooding and
severe weather are both possible. For the rest of today and tonight,
Slight Risks of both severe weather and flash flooding are in place for
the upper Midwest, with chances for severe weather stretching westward
into the Northern/Central High Plains. Severe weather is again forecast
for the Northern High Plains on Tuesday. Farther south, scattered
afternoon/evening thunderstorms will continue for the Rockies and High
Plains on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, scattered showers and storms
are expected across the northern Plains to the upper Mississippi Valley.

Temperatures will generally be near or above average.  Excessive Heat
Warnings are in effect for portions of Arizona and southern California,
with Heat Advisories in place in parts of the Northern Plains and eastern
Carolinas.

Petersen


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php