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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1959Z May 28, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Valid 00Z Sun May 29 2022 - 00Z Tue May 31 2022 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northeast through Sunday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe storms over parts of the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Saturday evening through Monday morning... ...There is a threat of heavy snowfall for the highest elevations of the Northern Rockies... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southwest/Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains... A deep upper-level trough will develop over the northwestern portion of the country from Saturday night through Sunday. The associated front will produce showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Saturday evening through Monday morning. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and a second area over parts of the Southern High Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. However, there will be an increased threat of severe wind gusts over 65 knots over both regions. The severe thunderstorm threat increases and moves to the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an increased threat of severe wind gusts over 65 knots and two-inch diameter hail. Furthermore, there will be a threat of excessive rainfall over the Upper Midwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. The front will move eastward slightly on Monday, as does the threat of severe thunderstorms. Therefore, on Monday, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an increased threat of excessive rainfall as more moisture surges into the region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, overnight Saturday, a front over the Northeast Coast moves offshore by Sunday morning. As a result, there will be showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast associated with the front, ending by late Saturday night. Some of the thunderstorms will produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northeast. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Further, onshore flow off the Atlantic will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Monday. Moreover, as the upper-level trough builds over the Northwest, rain will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California and extend eastward to the Northern Rockies. As a result, there will be light wet snow over some of the highest elevations of Cascades to the Northern Rockies from Saturday evening into Sunday. As the upper-level trough deepens, the snow levels will lower. Therefore, heavy wet snow will develop over the higher elevations of the Northern Intermountain Region and the Northern Rockies from Sunday evening into Monday. Finally, there is a Critical Risk of fire weather over the Southwest/Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains from Saturday evening into Monday morning. The threat is due to strong gusty winds, dry fuels, and low humidity. Ziegenfelder Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php