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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1957Z Oct 05, 2022)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Valid 00Z Thu Oct 06 2022 - 00Z Sat Oct 08 2022 ...Conditions finally improving across the Northeast as pesky upper-level low moves further offshore... ...Plunging temperatures in the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley as a potent cold front begins pushing southward late Wednesday... ...Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the Southern Rockies and High Plains, with isolated instances of flash flooding possible... ...Pleasant weather across much of the West through the end of the week... Conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England have begun to improve as the pesky upper-level low that has produced heavy rainfall, strong winds, coastal flooding, and well-below average temperatures over the last several days slowly pushes further offshore into the Atlantic. While the potential for rain still exists in coastal sections of southern New England, with an additional 0.25-0.50" possible through the evening, clouds should begin to break from west to east, with many in the Northeast seeing their first peeks of sunlight since last week. Temperatures are forecast to rebound closer to average on Thursday as clouds continue to clear ahead of high pressure sliding eastward, with highs tomorrow reaching the low to mid-70s across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Further south, after a chilly start to the day with temperatures dipping into the mid-40s across the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South, upper 70s to low 80s can be expected for highs in the Carolinas, Southeast, and Florida. Above-average temperatures in the Plains and Midwest on Wednesday will come to an abrupt halt as a potent cold front pushes southward, bringing unseasonably frigid air behind it. Highs in the northern Plains will struggle to get out of the 40s and 50s on Thursday, while areas south of the boundary can expect temperatures to remain closer to average, with highs in the 70s and low 80s in the central Plains. Frigid morning lows will follow Friday morning, with widespread temperatures below freezing across the area, dipping as far as the low to mid-20s for portions of North Dakota, and Minnesota. The boundary will continue its southward progression on Friday, with temperatures plunging from the Great Lakes through the Missouri Valley and Central Plains, where highs are forecast to be 10-20 degrees below normal. Behind the front, lake-effect showers are also in the forecast for the Upper Great Lakes as a result of the cold, northwest flow across the warmer lake water. Some wet snow may mix in for higher elevations of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Thursday night, though little accumulation is expected. Temperatures in the West will continue to be above average through Friday, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, lower 90s for the central California Valleys, low to mid-70s along the California coast, and mid-90s to near 100 for the Desert Southwest. Moreover, conditions will remain dry during this span, resulting in overall pleasant conditions through the end of the week. Further south, a frontal system slowly sagging southward across Arizona and New Mexico will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall in the region over the next several days. Anomalously high moisture that remains pooled across the area will enhance the risk for storms to produce bouts of heavier rainfall, and isolated instances of flash flooding are possible, particularly for terrain-sensitive areas and across burn scars. As a result, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for much of Arizona and New Mexico through Friday. Russell Graphics are available at