Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 22 2019 - 00Z Sun Feb 24 2019

...A major snow storm will impact the Four Corners region tonight and
advance into the Central Plains for Saturday...

...More heavy rain for portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
Tennessee Valley with flash flooding likely...

...Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across portions of
the lower Mississippi Valley into western Kentucky/Tennessee...

A strong storm system will move across the Southwest tonight with major
snowfall accumulations expected for the higher terrain of the Four Corners
region through Friday. Up to three feet of snow is expected along the
highest elevations of Arizona's Mogollon Rim and over a foot of new snow
can be expected for the higher elevations of southwestern Colorado. Low
pressure will emerge in the southern High Plains Friday night into
Saturday with rain changing to snow for southern Nebraska into western
Kansas as colder temperatures filter in behind the low track. As the
surface low strengthens through the day on Saturday, winds will pick up
which will lead to blowing snow and hazardous travel conditions across the
Central Plains. Through Saturday evening, forecast snowfall accumulations
for portions of central Kansas into central Nebraska range from 4-8 inches.

Gulf of Mexico moisture intersecting a stalled front extending from the
Southeast coast into eastern Texas will play a significant role in
expected heavy rain from portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into
northern Mississippi/Alabama and Tennessee into Kentucky over the next two
days. Additional rainfall of 3-5 inches is expected through Saturday
evening which will fall on top of locations which have received well over
200 percent of normal rainfall over the past two weeks. Some of these
locations are already flooded so additional heavy rain may lead to a very
dangerous flooding situation for folks in this part of the country.

Severe thunderstorms will also be possible as the storm system advances
east through the Plains on Saturday with the Storm Prediction Center
forecasting an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms from eastern
Arkansas into northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and western
Kentucky. Straight line wind damage along with an elevated risk of
tornadoes will be the main severe threats.

Otto


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php