Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 19 2025 - 12Z Tue Jan 21 2025

...Winter storm to bring moderate to heavy snow to the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast Sunday...

...Intrusion of Arctic Air bringing dangerously cold conditions to much of
the nation...

...Impacts from a rare, significant winter storm across the South next
week will begin for Texas Monday night...

...A Critical Risk of Fire Weather returns for southern California
Monday...

A winter storm is forecast to produce heavy snow across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today (Sunday). Some snow showers over the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and rain showers in the Southeast will linger into
Sunday morning following the passage of a cold front off the East Coast.
Meanwhile, an upper-level wave will help to deepen an area of low pressure
along a cold front Sunday morning which will move to the northeast just
off the coast through Sunday night. This will lead to a band of enhanced
snowfall developing inland to the northwest of the low track over the
Appalachians Sunday morning and from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New
England during the day. The heaviest snow will likely stay to the north
and west of the I-95 corridor. However, 3-6" of snow with locally higher
amounts is expected form northern Maryland through Boston. Some
rain/wintry mix will be possible from northern Virginia to southern New
Jersey.

Precipitation chances elsewhere through Monday include bands of heavy
lake-effect snow for favorable downwind locations of the Great Lakes with
cold northwesterly flow in place. Some snow showers will return to the
central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday as a shortwave
passes over the region and in the presence of post-frontal upslope flow.

Another big story this weekend and heading into next week will be the
bitterly cold Arctic airmass spreading across most of the central/eastern
U.S. Temperatures have already plummeted across the Rockies, Plains, and
Mississippi Valley, and will reach the East Coast Sunday as the noted cold
front pushes offshore. This will be the coldest air of the Winter season
thus far, and in many cases the coldest in several years. Forecast highs
the next couple of days range from below zero to the single digits in the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest; the single digits and teens across the
Rockies, central Plains, and Midwest; the teens and 20s across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic; and the 20s and 30s for Texas and the
Southeast. Wind chills will reach dangerously cold levels, with minimum
wind chills from 30 to 55 below zero at times Sunday and Monday in the
Rockies, northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Sub-zero wind chills are
expected to reach as far south as Oklahoma and the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys
by Sunday night.

The combination of this frigid air reaching the Gulf Coast and the
development of a low pressure system over the Gulf will lead to a
significant winter storm across the Gulf Coast/Southeast next week.
Initial impacts are expected to begin by late Monday night across eastern
and southern Texas. A corridor of potentially heavy snow is expected near
and just south of the Interstate 20 corridor, with a wintry mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain closer to the Interstate 10 corridor. Given the
rare southerly track of this winter storm, major traffic and travel
disruptions are likely through mid-week.

Some of this Arctic airmass will reach portions of the Great
Basin/Interior West as well, with highs by Monday only in the 20s and 30s
for most locations. Forecast highs are generally more mild and around
average along the West Coast, with 40s for the Pacific Northwest, the 50s
and 60s for California, and the 60s to low 70s for the Desert Southwest.
Unfortunately, these mild conditions along with gusty winds and very low
humidity have prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Critical
Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) Monday for southern California.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php