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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0753Z May 27, 2024)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 12Z Mon May 27 2024 - 12Z Wed May 29 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain to impact much of the eastern U.S., with isolated severe weather possible in the southern Plains... ...Dangerous heat remains in place this Memorial Day throughout southern/central Texas, the western and central Gulf Coast, as well as southern Florida before some gradual relief by midweek... ...Unsettled weather and thunderstorms return to the southern Plains on Tuesday, as well as the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies... The severe weather threat shifts eastward today along a cold front extending southward from a low pressure system forecast to slide northeast over the Great Lakes. Ongoing storms stretching from the upper Ohio Valley to the lower Mississippi Valley are expected to weaken this morning, but redevelopment is likely this afternoon along and ahead of this boundary. Clusters of merging thunderstorms are possible in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, which may also contain intense rainfall rates. This heavy rain could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding from northeast Maryland to the Catskill Mountains of New York, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect through tonight. The severe weather threat includes a broader region extending from the lower Great Lakes to the Southeast, with damaging wind gusts and hail the primary hazards, with isolated tornadoes possible in the eastern Mid-Atlantic. As the cold front extends westward towards the southern Plains, a few isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible in parts of central and eastern Texas. South of the cold front in parts of Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern Florida, oppressive and dangerous heat continues today. Highs into the upper 90s and triple digits are forecast throughout much of the Lone Star State, with a few daily record highs possible. Elevated humidity levels will lead to heat indices up to 120 degrees across portions of southern Texas. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect from south-central Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Additionally, a simmering Memorial Day is also in store for parts of the Florida Peninsula, where daily record highs could be tied/broken in Key West, Port St Lucie, and Melbourne. Summer heat is expected to linger over the Sunshine state through midweek, while gradual cooling enters the Gulf Coast and Texas as an approaching cold front inches towards the region. Residents are reminded to follow proper heat safety and check on the vulnerable population over at least the next few days. The next round of active weather should return to the southern Plains on Tuesday as scattered thunderstorms impact parts of southeast New Mexico and much of Texas near a lingering stationary front. Severe wind gusts and large hail are possible, as well as heavy rain producing scattered areas of flash flooding. Meanwhile, a separate area of thunderstorms is possible along a cold front as it progresses from the northern Great Basin on Tuesday into the northern High Plains on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms could turn severe and contain intense rainfall rates in these regions. Have a safe Memorial Day! Snell Graphics available at