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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0750Z Sep 22, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 350 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Valid 12Z Fri Sep 22 2023 - 12Z Sun Sep 24 2023 ...Strengthening low pressure system off the southeastern United States coast to produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and marine hazards across the Mid-Atlantic through this weekend... ...Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact portions of the central U.S., including chances for excessive rainfall... ...Summer heat remains across portions of the Southern Plains, while much cooler temperatures begin to moderate throughout the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies... A dreary weekend is in store for much of the Mid-Atlantic as rain begins to spread north ahead of a developing low pressure system off the Southeast coast. This low pressure system is currently designated by the National Hurricane Center as Potential Topical Cyclone Sixteen and is forecast to organize into a tropical storm by tonight before moving onshore over eastern North Carolina on Saturday. As this system pushes northward, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts, where Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. Gusty winds and large swells along beaches will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is also a concern, especially across eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Additionally, heavy rainfall is expected to spread into much of the Mid-Atlantic and eventually southern New England, creating the potential for scattered flash floods and isolated urban and small stream flooding. The greatest risk for several inches of rainfall is located between Cape Fear and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, closest to where the center of a potential tropical storm makes landfall. Eastern North Carolina is also under a threat for a few tornadoes as bands of thunderstorms move inland tonight. By Sunday and Monday, this system is likely to be much weaker as it inches northward over the Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva Peninsula. Heavy rain may linger from the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England, with continued strong east-northeasterly flow along coastal regions. Throughout the central U.S., a potent system ejecting out of the Rockies and coming to a crawl over the Mississippi Valley this weekend is anticipated to create widespread shower and storm chances. Some storms may turn severe today across the northern and central High Plains, with the severe threat becoming more widespread along a cold front on Saturday from the Middle Missouri Valley to the Southern Plains. Heavy rain is also possible with this autumn storm system, starting today across the northern Plains before shifting eastward and overlapping with the severe weather threat area on Saturday. Some repeating rounds of thunderstorms could produce a few inches of rainfall within a short period of time, leading to scattered flash flooding concerns. By Monday, the greatest severe weather and heavy rainfall chances shift to the southern Plains and Arklatex region. The temperature outlook for the final full weekend of September is highlighted by below average temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and western third of the Nation. In fact, conditions are likely to be cold enough over the northern Rockies to produce snow across the highest elevations. Elsewhere, summer continues to hang on across the southern Plains as above average temperatures and highs into the upper 90s remain in the forecast. Afternoon temperatures should peak in the low 100s along the U.S.-Mexico border. Thankfully, a cold front approaching by the end of the weekend is expected to knock temperatures closer to average by Monday, with only South Texas likely remaining well above average. Snell Graphics available at