Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 00Z Sat May 17 2025 - 00Z Mon May 19 2025

...Severe thunderstorm outbreak expected to linger into tonight for
portions of the mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, along with
the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding...

...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will increase the potential for flash
flooding across portions of northern New England through Saturday...

...Record-breaking heat expected to continue across southern Texas, with
above average temperatures extending along the Gulf Coast into the
Southeast through the weekend...

...Rounds of severe weather expected this weekend across the southern to
central Great Plains...

An active pattern will continue through this weekend across the lower 48
with threats of severe storms, flash flooding, heat, gusty winds and
increased fire weather risks. A deep surface low, tied to a robust upper
level low over the Upper Midwest, will continue to support strong wind
gusts across the northern Plains into Nebraska through this evening where
winds have been reported between 60-70 mph (locally higher) Friday
afternoon. Winds will subside across the region overnight tonight but wind
gusts up to 50 mph will be possible across portions of the Midwest on
Saturday as the storm system moves east. A Moderate Risk (level 4 out of
5) of severe thunderstorms is in place from the confluence of the
Mississippi and Ohio Rivers into portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
through this evening and overnight. Concerns for strong, potentially
long-track tornadoes along with large hail and damaging straight line
winds, exists for the region. A threat of flash flooding will be increased
for some of these same areas into the central Appalachians through early
Saturday morning as a second round of thunderstorms moves across portions
of Kentucky and Tennessee, which were impacted by heavy rain earlier on
Friday.

As the storm system over the central to eastern U.S. tracks eastward on
Saturday, renewed threats for heavy rain in New England will exist due to
multiple rounds of heavy rain, adding onto locally heavy rainfall that
fell on Friday. Back to the west, severe thunderstorms will be possible
over parts of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas in the vicinity of a stalled
frontal boundary and ahead of a dryline. These same threats will setup
again on Sunday, a bit northward compared to Saturday, over Nebraska,
Kansas and Oklahoma. Behind the dryline, gusty winds and low relative
humidity values will setup a Critical Risk of fire weather from
southeastern Arizona into southern New Mexico and far western Texas on
Saturday.

Across the southern U.S., temperatures will be roughly 10 to 20 degrees
above average with record-breaking high temperatures possible over parts
of South Texas. Highs in the mid-90s to 100s over inland portions of South
Texas could break several daytime maximum temperature records over the
weekend. Above average warmth and high heat indices will also exist across
the Gulf Coast States into the Southeast, south of a stalled frontal
boundary to the north.

Otto

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php