Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 21 2019 - 12Z Mon Sep 23 2019

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible this weekend from the
Central Plains to the Midwest...

...Below average temperatures continue across the Northwest, while above
average temperatures are found in the East...

A potent low pressure system will continue pushing across the Northern
Plains today and will enter Ontario overnight Saturday. Meanwhile, an
associated cold front is forecast to move eastward through the northern
and central Plains this weekend, before entering the Great Lakes and
Southern Plains by late Sunday. This boundary will produce showers and
thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley
today.  Some of the storms could be severe, with frequent lightning, large
hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes possible. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across
northern Minnesota, as well as an area stretching from central Kansas to
Iowa.  Flash flooding will also be possible, particularly across northeast
Kansas and northern Missouri. A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall has
been issued for this region, where 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible by
Monday morning.

Colder air will continue to linger across the western states behind the
cold front, with temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees below average for
this time of year on Saturday. These cold temperatures will allow for snow
to fall above 7000 feet across portions of Wyoming and Montana today.
Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued
across these regions, where up to a foot of snow is possible. Temperatures
will moderate slightly on Sunday across the Northwest, but will still
remain below average.

Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will run as much as 15 degrees above
average across the Great Lakes and eastern U.S. through the weekend. This
equates to widespread high temperatures in the 80s and low 90s, with
overnight lows only dropping into the 60s.


Snell


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php