Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 15 2019 - 12Z Wed Jul 17 2019

...Tropical Depression Barry remains a flooding threat for the Lower
Mississippi Valley and northward...

...Severe weather and flash flooding are possible in the north-central
U.S. for the beginning of the workweek...

Barry, currently a tropical depression, is expected to transition to a
post-tropical cyclone today as it moves slowly northeastward. Heavy
rainfall of an additional 3 to 6 inches is possible in its vicinity, with
locally higher amounts. These accumulations will lead to continued
flooding and flash flooding concerns across the Lower Mississippi Valley
and northward. A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for early
Monday across parts of Louisiana, far southeastern Texas, and far
southwestern Mississippi, with a Slight Risk extending northward to the
bootheel of Missouri. As Barry moves northeastward on Tuesday, the flash
flooding threat will shift a bit and stretch from Arkansas into parts of
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, where there is a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall in effect. A brief tornado or two is also possible. 

As a frontal system moves across the north-central U.S. and then stalls,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast there. Flash flooding and
severe weather are both possible. For Monday, Slight Risks of both severe
weather and flash flooding are in place for the Midwest, with chances for
severe weather and locally heavy rain stretching westward into the
Northern High Plains. Severe weather is again forecast for the
Northern/Central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. Farther south,
scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms will continue for the Rockies
and High Plains on Monday and Tuesday.

Cool high temperatures are likely in the Lower Mississippi Valley with
Barry, and record low maximum temperatures could be set there today.
Behind a cold front moving across the Northwest, high temperatures will be
5 to 15 degrees below average. Elsewhere, temperatures will generally be
at or above average. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for portions of
Arizona and California, with Heat Advisories in place in parts of the
Northern Plains and Midwest as well as the Carolinas.


Tate


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php