Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 22 2023 - 12Z Sun Sep 24 2023

...Strengthening low pressure system off the southeastern United States
coast to produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and marine hazards across the
Mid-Atlantic through this weekend...

...Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact portions
of the central U.S., including chances for excessive rainfall...

...Summer heat remains across portions of the Southern Plains, while much
cooler temperatures begin to moderate throughout the Intermountain West
and Northern Rockies...

A dreary weekend is in store for much of the Mid-Atlantic as rain begins
to spread north ahead of a developing low pressure system off the
Southeast coast. This low pressure system is currently designated by the
National Hurricane Center as Potential Topical Cyclone Sixteen and is
forecast to organize into a tropical storm by tonight before moving
onshore over eastern North Carolina on Saturday. As this system pushes
northward, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts, where Tropical Storm Warnings have
been issued. Gusty winds and large swells along beaches will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Coastal flooding due to storm
surge is also a concern, especially across eastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia. Additionally, heavy rainfall is expected to spread
into much of the Mid-Atlantic and eventually southern New England,
creating the potential for scattered flash floods and isolated urban and
small stream flooding. The greatest risk for several inches of rainfall is
located between Cape Fear and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, closest
to where the center of a potential tropical storm makes landfall. Eastern
North Carolina is also under a threat for a few tornadoes as bands of
thunderstorms move inland tonight. By Sunday and Monday, this system is
likely to be much weaker as it inches northward over the Chesapeake Bay
and the Delmarva Peninsula. Heavy rain may linger from the northern
Mid-Atlantic to southern New England, with continued strong
east-northeasterly flow along coastal regions.

Throughout the central U.S., a potent system ejecting out of the Rockies
and coming to a crawl over the Mississippi Valley this weekend is
anticipated to create widespread shower and storm chances. Some storms may
turn severe today across the northern and central High Plains, with the
severe threat becoming more widespread along a cold front on Saturday from
the Middle Missouri Valley to the Southern Plains. Heavy rain is also
possible with this autumn storm system, starting today across the northern
Plains before shifting eastward and overlapping with the severe weather
threat area on Saturday. Some repeating rounds of thunderstorms could
produce a few inches of rainfall within a short period of time, leading to
scattered flash flooding concerns. By Monday, the greatest severe weather
and heavy rainfall chances shift to the southern Plains and Arklatex
region.

The temperature outlook for the final full weekend of September is
highlighted by below average temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic,
Northeast, and western third of the Nation. In fact, conditions are likely
to be cold enough over the northern Rockies to produce snow across the
highest elevations. Elsewhere, summer continues to hang on across the
southern Plains as above average temperatures and highs into the upper 90s
remain in the forecast. Afternoon temperatures should peak in the low 100s
along the U.S.-Mexico border. Thankfully, a cold front approaching by the
end of the weekend is expected to knock temperatures closer to average by
Monday, with only South Texas likely remaining well above average.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php