Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 30 2026 - 12Z Thu Jul 02 2026

...Severe thunderstorms possible across the north-central and northeastern
U.S. through Wednesday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible across central/southern Plains through
Wednesday...

...Dangerous heat for the central and eastern U.S.; below normal
temperatures for the West...


A broad upper-level troughing over western U.S. will support unsettled
weather as facilitates the eastward movement of a frontal boundary across
north-central U.S. The strengthening cyclone tracking across southern
Canada will drag a cold front southeastward through the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest before reaching the Great Lakes by late Tuesday into
Wednesday. The frontal boundary will interact with warm and unstable air
mass, which will promote repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms from
the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Adequate
deep-layer shear and moderate to strong instability will support organized
convection capable of severe thunderstorms, large hail, damaging winds,
and excessive rainfall. The severe weather and excessive rainfall threat
shifts eastward into portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast late
Tuesday as a warm front lift northward. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue into Wednesday across much of the central Plains into the Great
Lakes, but a quasi-stationary front and surface trough over the
Intermountain West/Northern Rockies will bring a chance for scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the area.

Farther south, scattered to numerous diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are
expected along the slow-moving frontal boundary across the Southeast that
will bring concerns for localized flash flooding. Additionally, convection
will develop across eastern New Mexico and west Texas, where persistent
southeasterly low-level flow will maintain moisture convergence along the
southern High Plains. While storm converge should remain scattered,
localized heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flash flooding concerns,
particularly in terrain-favored locations and urban corridors through
Wednesday. A surface trough will extend southward across central and
southern Plains, bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.
With the combination of southerly flow and instability, the storms may
also produce supercells that may bring a severe thunderstorm threat with
damaging winds and large to very large hail over central/southern High
Plains through Wednesday.

The dominate weather hazard during this week will continue to be dangerous
heat across much of central and eastern U.S. Strengthening mid-level
heights beneath the expansive ridge will support afternoon highs
temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s. Increasing humidity values will
produce peak heat indices between 105-115 degrees across portions of the
Midwest and Mississippi Valley through Thursday, and expanding into the
Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley by late week. With the combination of warm
overnight lows, generally remaining in the 70s, providing limited relief
and prolonged daytime, there is an increased risk of heat-related
illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations and those without
adequate cooling. In the West, persistent upper-level troughing will
result in below normal temperatures across the region through the week.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php