Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 16 2025 - 00Z Wed Jun 18 2025

..There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and
Northern/Central Plains /Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday and the
Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Monday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern High Plains on Sunday and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi
Valley and Central Plains on Monday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great
Basin/Southwest on Monday...

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central
High Plains will remain through Wednesday. Upper-level energy and abundant
moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic,
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Central Gulf Coast and from the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central Gulf Coast for the rest of
Saturday. Three heavy rain regions will be embedded in the larger mass of
showers and thunderstorms. The first area will be over the Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create numerous areas where flash flooding
events are possible, and many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

The second area will cover parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. 
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

The third area will cover parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. 
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

In addition, the upper-level energy and moisture will create showers and
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains through
Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or
greater, and severe thunderstorm wind gusts 65 knots or greater over the
region.

On Monday, an area of upper-level energy and abundant moisture will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the
Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic from Monday through Tuesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.
The second area will cover parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the
Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
and the Middle Mississippi Valley from Monday through Tuesday morning. 
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

However, there will be two separate areas of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern/Upper Mississippi Valley from Monday through Tuesday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern Plains.

There will be a second area of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains from Monday
through Tuesday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.
Elsewhere, dry fuels, low humidity, and gusty winds have prompted a
Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest on
Monday.

By Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A second area of excessive rainfall will develop over parts of the Ohio
Valley/Central Appalachian on Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio
Valley/Central Appalachian. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, there will be a third day of Enhanced Risk of showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains. Therefore, on Tuesday, the
SPC issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central Plains.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php