Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 30 2026 - 00Z Thu Jul 02 2026

...Severe thunderstorms possible across the north-central and northeastern
U.S. through Tuesday...

...Dangerous heat for the central and eastern U.S.; below normal
temperatures for the West...

A strengthening low pressure system will track across southern Canada and
push a frontal boundary across the north-central U.S. over the next couple
days. Several upper-level shortwaves will interact with the front and
support rounds of showers and thunderstorms from the central High Plains
to the Upper Midwest through Tuesday. Warm, moist air combined with
moderate instability will allow for the development of isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorms that will be capable of producing damaging
winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Severe thunderstorms will also be
possible in the Northeast on Tuesday evening as a warm front lifts north
and an upper-level shortwave moves southeast across the region.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible across the
Southeast as a slow-moving cold front sinks towards the Gulf Coast and in
portions of Texas and New Mexico where southeasterly flow will funnel Gulf
moisture into a convergence zone over the southern High Plains. Locally
heavy rainfall may result in isolated instances of flash flooding,
especially near steep terrain and in urban or poor-drainage areas.

For the rest of the central and eastern U.S., a strengthening ridge of
high pressure will result in dangerous heat this week, with high
temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s. High humidity values will result
in heat indices between 105-115 degrees across the Midwest and Mississippi
Valley through Thursday and across the Ohio Valley and East Coast later
this week. Overnight cooling will be limited by temperatures only dropping
down to the 70s. The combination of prolonged daytime heating and limited
nighttime relief will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses,
especially for vulnerable populations and those without adequate cooling.
In the West, persistent upper-level troughing will result in below normal
temperatures across the region through at least mid-week.


Dolan/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php