Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 17 2025 - 00Z Sat Apr 19 2025

...A Spring snowstorm to produce heavy snows across the Northern to
Central Rockies...

...Much colder weather to sink south across the Northern to Central
Rockies, Great Basin and Northern to Central High Plains, while above
average temperature push east into the Mississippi & Ohio Valleys...

...Critical to Extreme Fire Weather threat for the Central to Southern
High Plains...

...Severe weather threat from eastern portions of the Central Plains into
the Upper Mississippi Valley...

An active weather pattern on tap for large portions of the Lower 48 over
the next few days with big temperatures changes from recent readings set
to occur from the Plains to the east coast.   An amplifying upper trof
over south central Canada into the Northern Rockies will help propel a
strong cold front southward across the Northern Plains/Northern Rockies
region Wednesday night and into the Central Plains/Central Rockies on
Thursday.  This will be setting the stage for a spring snowstorm across
the Rockies of Montana, Wyoming into Colorado where snow totals in the 6
to 12 inch plus range are likely.   This developing snowstorm will be in
the wake of recent much above average temperatures across the Northern to
Central Rockies and Northern to Central Plains.  High temperatures in the
70s on Wednesday will be replaced by much colder temperatures in the 30s
and 40s on Thursday and Friday.  Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather
Advisories and winter storm watches are currently in effect across large
portions of western to south central Montana into much of central Wyoming.
 However, these warnings, advisories and watches are occurring across
relatively less populated areas of the lower 48, affecting appropriately
750,000 people.

To the south of the winter weather threat area, windy conditions ahead of
the above mentioned strong front, combined with dry weather and low
relative humidities will produce Critical to Extreme Fire Weather
conditions across the Central to Southern High Plains.  Red Flag warnings
are currently in effect from southeast Colorado, Southwest Kansas, across
all of New Mexico, far southwest Texas and far southeast Arizona, 
affecting over 6 million people.

While mostly dry weather is expected along and ahead of the strong cold
front pressing southward into the Central to Southern Plains, more active
thunderstorms are likely across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley into
the Upper Lakes region from Wednesday night into Thursday and Friday along
and ahead of the eastward moving cold front.  While precipitation totals
are not expected to be very heavy across these regions, areal average
totals in the .25-50"+ range, there will be potential for severe weather
to develop Thursday into early Friday from eastern portions of the Central
Plains, east northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley region. 
Large hail will be the greatest severe weather threat across these
regions, with lesser threats from high winds and tornadoes.

By Friday evening, the emphasis for active weather will begin to develop
much farther to the south across the Southern Plains as the strong upper
trof begins to push eastward into the Southern to Central Plains.  This
will lead to development of active thunderstorms, heavy rains and severe
weather late Thursday into Thursday night along the strong cold front
stretching from the Southern Plains, northeastward into the Mid
Mississippi Valley.  This active weather pattern is then expected to
continue into Friday and Saturday across portions of the Southern Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

While much colder temperatures will be spreading southward across the
Rockies and Plains over the next few days, recent below average
temperatures across the eastern third of the nation will be replaced by
much above average temperatures spreading eastward late this week and into
this weekend.

Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php