Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 15 2025 - 00Z Wed Sep 17 2025

...Rounds of thunderstorms across the Plains this evening, then mainly
across the northern Plains on Monday; scattered flash flooding and severe
weather possible into tonight...

...Coastal storm brewing off the Southeast coast while Pacific Northwest
cools off in wake of a passing cold front...

...Mid-September heat wave persisting up the Mississippi Valley into the
Midwest, with warmer than normal weather from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast...

An upper-level trough interacting with an elongated front will foster
rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms up and down the Great Plains
through tonight. WPC maintains a Slight Risk for portions of the western
Dakotas through this evening. An area of low pressure will take its time
exiting the northern Plains where additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms can be expected on Monday before spreading eastward into the
upper Midwest later on Monday. Farther south, only isolated thunderstorms
are expected down into the southern Plains where the front is forecast to
be more diffuse on Monday. The frontal boundary traversing the Northwest
will set off more scattered showers and storms across the northern Rockies
and High Plains on Tuesday.

Low pressure organizing near a stationary front is forecast to intensify
and head towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina Monday night. This
system, reminiscent of a cold-season nor'easter, will likely bring a round
of soaking rain with windy conditions especially near the coast beginning
on Monday. By Tuesday morning, the core of this coastal storm makes
landfall near the Virginia/North Carolina border where the potential
exists for a few inches of wind-swept rain pushing farther inland over
northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Elsewhere, a Pacific cold
front pushing ashore along Pacific Northwest coast will deliver a shot of
cooler than normal temperatures to the Pacific Northwest through Monday.
In addition to the cooler temperatures, the front will trigger scattered
showers and some thunderstorms from the Pacific Northwest this evening,
then throughout the Northern Rockies later today into Monday. Drier
conditions return to the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday.

Temperature-wise, after witnessing cooler than normal temperatures in the
Pacific Northwest today and Monday, hotter than normal conditions return
by Tuesday. Much of the eastern two-thirds of the country will not fully
shake summer's grasp just yet. The hottest temperatures compared to normal
will reside in the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley where daytime highs
will range from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Some portions of the Middle
Mississippi Valley will remain mired in an ongoing mid-September heat wave
with some locations approaching daily record highs. Overnight lows will be
on the warmer side in these regions as well. Farther east, unseasonably
warm temperatures will stretch from the Mid-South and Great Lakes on east
to the Northeast. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal in the
Southwest. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast will also be seasonally
cool given the increasing cloud cover and rain chances the first half of
the week.

Mullinax/Kong

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php