Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Aug 28 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the Midwest, Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday...

...Flash flooding threat across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley
into the Northeast on Thursday...

A strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest into
the South-Central U.S. into late week, bringing daytime highs in the upper
90s to low 100s, with isolated areas reaching between 100-115 degrees in
the Southwest and Southern Plains. Record-breaking overnight temperatures
will limit recovery from the heat, which may result in heat-related
illnesses for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Therefore,
widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk will continue across portions of
Texas into the Southwest through Thursday. See the latest Key Messages
linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

A progressive upper-level trough will move eastward across the Midwest
into the Great Lakes toward the Northeast. Organized convection will
develop along the frontal boundary extending from central/southern Plains
and Midwest into the Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast, as moisture
and instability increases. The strongest storms will have the potential to
produce lightning, large hail, damaging winds, and excessive
rainfall/flash flooding through Wednesday, especially across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Furthermore, as a
slow-moving frontal boundary across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi
Valley weakens, the cold front from the primary frontal system will move
southeastward by late Wednesday. Deep Gulf moisture will continue to pool
along the boundary, which will maintain a corridor favorable for heavy
rainfall and severe thunderstorms from lower Mississippi Valley into
portions of the Southeast. On Thursday, the severe thunderstorm shifts to
the Northeast and Ohio Valley, while the heavy rainfall/flash flooding
threat encompasses portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast
as the frontal boundary moves eastward.

Meanwhile, continued monsoonal moisture transport around the western
periphery of the ridge will support daily thunderstorms across the
portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and central/southern
Plains. The combination of high moisture and instability may lead to
organized slow-moving storms, which will continue to favor isolated flash
flooding across much of the Four Corners into the central/southern High
Plains and Rockies through Thursday. Additionally, some of organized
convection may produce strong winds, large hail, and lightning across the
central/southern High Plains.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php