Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 15 2025

...Snow expected to continue across Lower Great Lakes and interior
Northeast/New England...

...Above average temperatures across the West and Central U.S....

...Strong cyclone developing off the West Coast will bring heavy rainfall,
heavy mountain snow and strong winds to portions of California through
Saturday...


Upper troughing over the Canadian Maritime will generate cool westerly
flow over the Lower Great Lakes and interior Northeast over the next
couple of days. This will lead to the persistence of lake effect snow
showers across the region through this weekend.

Elsewhere, upper-level ridging over the West/Central U.S. will promote
above average temperatures across those areas through Saturday. Highs in
the 60s could break high temperature records in the Northern Rockies
today. Low temperatures in the 40s in the Northern High Plains tonight
will be 20-30 degrees above average and may tie or break existing records.
Cloudy/rainy conditions over the Southwest will keep low temperatures in
the 50s and 60s tonight, which may also tie/break minimum temperature
records. As the upper trough pushes closer to the West Coast, southerly
flow beneath the Central U.S. ridge will increase leading to well above
average temperatures across the Great Plains on Friday. Several maximum
and minimum temperature records may be tied or broken due to temps being
between 20-30 degrees above average.

The upper-low approaching the West Coast will amplify today, while it
spreads heavy precipitation and strong winds across California. Heavy rain
is expected to proliferate throughout much of the California coastline and
into the Sierra Nevada today. A slight risk (at least 15% chance) of
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is in effect for parts of the
Bay area, where some instability may be present, as well as upslope areas
of the Sierra today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms shift south into
southern California on Friday along with the threat for excessive
rainfall. A slight risk is in effect for northern Los Angeles County and
the Transverse Ranges on Friday. Heavy snow is possible for southern
portions of the Sierra through Saturday morning, by which time 1-2 feet of
snow may have accumulated. High wind warnings and Wind advisories are in
effect across much of northern/central California and western Nevada for
this morning ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Winds out of
the southwest at 40-55 mph will impact portions of eastern Glacier
National Park and adjacent foothills this afternoon through Friday
afternoon due to the presence of a strong low pressure system moving
across south-central Canada.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php