Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 00Z Mon Jan 12 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the
Tennessee Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday and over the Southeast on
Saturday...

...There is a 0.10 inches of freezing rain possible over the Northeast on
Sunday...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will
move eastward to the Northeast Coast by early Saturday, while a wave of
low pressure moves from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes by
Saturday evening. The system will trigger rain from the Northeast to the
Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday evening with the first wave. The second
wave will produce snow over the Great Lakes on Saturday and rain/freezing
rain over the Northeast on Saturday evening, changing over to snow by
Sunday morning. Lake-effect snow will linger downwind from the Great Lakes
on Sunday.

Moreover, rain will develop along and ahead of the front from the Lower
Mississippi Valley to the Central Appalachians. Heavy rain will develop
along and ahead of the front from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the
Central Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level
3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley to
the Central Appalachians overnight Friday into Saturday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create numerous areas where flash flooding
events are possible, and many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

In addition, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley through Saturday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Saturday, the threat of excessive rainfall diminishes over the Lower
Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley, while showers and
thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the front from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast.

Meanwhile, onshore flow off the Pacific will produce coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest Friday night
into Monday morning.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php