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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1959Z Oct 22, 2021)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Valid 00Z Sat Oct 23 2021 - 00Z Mon Oct 25 2021 ...A parade of Pacific storm systems to produce copious amounts of rain and isolated heavy mountain snow in the Northwest and California... ...Developing low pressure system in the Central Plains to bring heavy rain and severe weather to the region over the weekend... ...Above normal temperatures will continue in the Central and Southern Plains; more seasonal temperatures to return to the Intermountain West and East Coast; cooler than average temperatures hang over the Midwest and along the West Coast... ...Elevated fire weather risk issued for portions of the Southern Plains... A series of Pacific storms moving onshore over northern California and the Pacific Northwest will serve to continue the recent trend of wet weather over the regions. As the remaining cold front from yesterday's system moves further inland an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected to fall over burn scar affected areas of northern California. Given the continued potential for rapid runoff and debris flows in these areas a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been maintained for the northern Sierra Nevada. Continued eastward progression of the frontal boundary will spread moderate rain and high elevation snow into the Intermountain West and Northern/Central Rockies overnight. Before the memory of the first Pacific storm is able to fade the second system is forecast to make its approach on the West Coast Saturday morning. Relatively weaker than the previous system, this storm is expected to dissipate quickly after landfall, but not before bringing an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain to northern California and southern Oregon. Due to the numerous burn scars in these areas as well as the general sensitivity of the soils from the previous days' rain a Marginal Risk will remain in place on Saturday for the northern Sierra Nevada and expanded to encompass coastal northern California and extreme southwestern Oregon. Not to be outdone, the third and strongest of the forecasted Pacific storms will slam into the West Coast Sunday morning. Exceptionally high levels of atmospheric moisture embedded within this system in the form of a very powerful Atmospheric River are expected to slam into northern California. With snow levels at the time sitting around 10000-11000 ft, most of the precipitation associated with this system will fall as rain except for at the highest mountain peaks. Such an intense influx of moisture will inundate northern California in as much as 3 to 5+ inches of rain in 24 hours, exacerbating concerns for flash flooding, rapid runoff, and debris flows. As such, the Weather Prediction Center has upgraded its Excessive Rainfall Outlook to a Moderate Risk on Sunday for portions of northern Sierra Nevada, while a Slight Risk remains in place for the surrounding areas. Farther east, a developing low pressure system is forecast to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley overnight ahead of a lifting warm front. As the system progressively deepens on Saturday its attendant warm front will continue its northward track and begin encroaching on a quasi-stationary boundary over Missouri Saturday afternoon. With ample surface instability and moisture available between these two fronts, any thunderstorms that develop may become severe. Given the potential for these thunderstorms to produce damaging wind, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of northeastern Kansas and far western Missouri effective Saturday morning to Sunday morning. Further strengthening of the system overnight will lead to the continuation of the severe weather threat over the Middle Mississippi Valley in the form of an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather. Forecasted environmental conditions appear favorable for the development of supercells with the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. In addition to the severe weather threat, there will also be the risk of flash flooding as heavy rainfall could lead to accumulations of 2 to 3 inches of rain in a 24 hour period over portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, prompting the issuance of a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Sunday. Meanwhile, a cold front passing slowly through the Eastern Seaboard today will move offshore overnight tonight, but not before triggering more showers and thunderstorms over eastern North Carolina, some of which may become severe with isolated wind damage and moderate sized hail. Temperatures will generally remain near or above normal in the south-central part of the country during the short range period. These warm temperatures, lack of recent precipitation, and sustained dry and breezy conditions will support modest priming of grass-based fuels. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has issued an Elevated Risk of fire weather for portions of New Mexico through Sunday morning and the northern Texas Panhandle Saturday morning to Sunday morning. To the north, cold air ushered in by surface high pressure situated over central Canada and the Midwest will set the stage for modest temperature drops extending from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast. While daily highs will remain generally in the low to mid 50s, which is just a few degrees below average, some isolated areas could experience temperature anomalies as large as 10 degrees below normal. As for the West Coast, persistent cloud cover from the series of systems moving onshore will keep the region around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average for this time of year. However, in areas of higher elevation such as the Sierra Nevada temperature departures are expected to be more extreme at 20 to 25 degrees below normal. Zavadoff Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php