Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018
Valid 00Z Thu Oct 18 2018 - 00Z Sat Oct 20 2018
...Very cool and unsettled weather will persist across the Southern Plains
with more areas of heavy rain and flash flooding expected...
A front settling slowly south down across the Florida peninsula will
extend west out over the Gulf of Mexico and then should be wedged well
southwest over mainland Mexico going through the remainder of the week.
Plenty of clouds and areas of rainfall are expected north of this front
extending from the Southern Plains east across areas of the lower
Mississippi Valley. Some of the heaviest rain will be focused over central
Texas including the Hill Country where there will remain a threat for some
flash flooding. The soil conditions here are saturated, and any additional
rainfall will aggravate ongoing flooding concerns. The expansive area of
cloudiness and rain will also continue to keep temperatures well below
normal for this time of the year, and in some cases, the high temperatures
will be 20 to 30 degrees below average.
Meanwhile, a new cold front will be crossing the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast through tonight as a large area of cool and dry high pressure
noses across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and toward the Eastern
Seaboard through Thursday and Friday. The cold air dropping southeast
across the Great Lakes region through tonight and early Thursday is likely
to result in some lake-effect rain and snow showers for areas downwind of
the lakes. By later Thursday, this will taper off, and warmer temperatures
should then begin to spread back north up across the central and northern
Plains, including the upper Midwest where temperatures will go back above
normal. The milder trend though will be short-lived as a new cold front
then drops south from Canada by Friday across the Midwest. Moisture
surging northeast ahead of this front will allow for an area of showers to
develop along and ahead of it by late Friday moving into the Eastern U.S.
Elsewhere, the Western U.S. should generally see very dry and tranquil
weather with temperatures near or slightly above normal. One exception
will be down near the Four Corners region, where proximity to an upper low
will maintain more cloudiness and a bit cooler temperatures.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php