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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2007Z Mar 24, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 407 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 00Z Sat Mar 25 2023 - 00Z Mon Mar 27 2023 ...Flash flooding and severe weather threats across the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys tonight... ...Showers and thunderstorms for the East Coast, snow and a wintry mix for the Midwest and Interior Northeast/New England this weekend... ...Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy mountain snowfall to continue across the West... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue/redevelop along a quasi-stationary front through the Ohio Valley, as well as southward ahead of a cold front pushing through the Lower Mississippi Valley on today. Anomalously high moisture will continue to spread northward from the Gulf of Mexico and pool along this quasi-stationary boundary, helping to fuel heavy rain producing storms. There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall in effect from northern Arkansas northeastward into the Lower Ohio Valley overlapping a region where repeated rounds of storms are forecast to produce additional rainfall between 1-2 inches, locally higher, and lead to the risk of scattered to widespread instances of flash flooding. In addition, very buoyant air with moderate to strong CAPE values as well as strong low-level and upper-level shear will lead to the risk for widespread severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/5) for a regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley with hail, strong winds, and tornadoes, some strong, all anticipated. To the west, strong, gusty winds behind the advancing cold front and very dry conditions have also prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center over portions of the Southern High Plains through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms return to the Southeast/central Gulf Coast on Sunday but the risks for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms remain marginal. The low pressure system associated with the active weather today will continue to deepen/better organize as it shifts northward towards the Great Lakes on Saturday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue ahead of a northward moving warm front and trailing cold front shifting eastward towards the East Coast overnight into early Saturday afternoon. The increased forward motion of the frontal system should keep storms from lingering over the same areas too long, significantly reducing forecast rain amounts compared to areas farther west, with the highest totals of 0.5-1 inch expected through the Mid-Atlantic. In addition to the rain, wrap-around precipitation in the colder air to the north and west of the surface low track will lead to snow for portions of the Great Lakes and the Interior Northeast/New England. Some moderate to heavy snowfall totals of 4-8+ inches are possible from southeastern Wisconsin into northern Michigan on Saturday, with 3-6 inches expected for higher elevations and regions close to the Canadian border in the Interior Northeast/New England. A wintry mix including a light glaze of freezing rain is also possible across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and portions of the northern Appalachians. Temperatures ahead of the advancing front will be above average from southern/eastern Texas into the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic, with highs in the 70s and 80s forecast. Temperate highs in the upper 40s and low 50s over New England today will drop into the 30s and low 40s Saturday. Highs over the Great Lakes will be in the 40s today with 30s for Saturday, and a similar drop is forecast over portions of the Northern Plains with 30s and 40s today dipping into the 20s for some locations Saturday. Highs will moderate a bit further south over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley from the 40s and low 50s today into the mid-50s for many locations Saturday. Mean upper-level troughing and energetic flow over a couple frontal systems pushing through the West will keep precipitation chances up and temperatures well below average across northern and central portions of the region. Heavy snow totals over a foot are forecast for the Cascades as well as for mountain ranges in the Northern Rockies and southward into the eastern Great Basin, with more moderate snowfall for the ranges of the Central Rockies. Accumulations are expected to remain light for lower elevations. Some light accumulating snow is also expected into the adjacent Central High Plains. High temperatures will be chilly Saturday and Sunday, with 30s for the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies, 40s for the Pacific Northwest and Southern Rockies, 50s for northern/central California, and 60s to low 70s for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Some locations across the Great Basin will see highs near or at record low maximum temperatures for the date. Kebede/Putnam Graphics available at