Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 12 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 14 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday...

A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the
Northern/Central Plains and then northwestward to the Northern Rockies
will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Upper Mississippi Valley,
producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Friday into Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Similarly, the showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Southwest on Friday into Saturday morning. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Friday into Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most
vulnerable. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will continue over
parts of the Southwest into the Central Rockies through Sunday during the
afternoon into the late evening.

Moreover, a front over the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley on Friday
evening will slowly move northward into northern New England by Sunday
evening. The boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley Friday evening, then move into parts of
the Northeast Saturday into Sunday.

The lifting front will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over two areas. The first will be over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians and the second over parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday
into Sunday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Northern/Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday
into Monday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Mid-Atlantic southward to Florida and westward to the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday evening. On Saturday
morning, rain and embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and become showers and thunderstorms over parts
of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, extending southward to
Florida and along the Gulf Coast through Sunday evening.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php