Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Jul 01 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains/Central
High Plains on Sunday...

A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains
and then into the Central Rockies will move eastward to the Lower Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and into
the Southern Plains by Tuesday. Showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop along and ahead of the boundary over parts of the Upper Great
Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains/Central High
Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley
and Central Plains/Central High Plains through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary front over the Mid-Atlantic will aid in
producing showers and strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal threat of tornadoes and hail.

South of the front, upper-level impulses, daytime heating, and moisture
will create showers and thunderstorms on Sunday over the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast.
Similarly, upper-level impulses, daytime heating, and moisture will create
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains. Also, on
Sunday, scattered rain showers will develop over parts of Northern New
England as low pressure moves eastward into Southeastern Canada.

On Monday, as the front moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and parts
of the Mid-Atlantic.

Moreover, upper-level impulses, daytime heating, and moisture will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast, the Gulf Coast States into the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains.

Upper-level ridging will build into parts of the Pacific Northwest,
prompting Heat Advisories over parts of Washington State, Oregon, and
Idaho from Monday morning into Tuesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php