Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 00Z Wed May 13 2026 - 00Z Fri May 15 2026

...There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather over the
central Great Plains, the Great Lakes, and Florida today...

...There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall today over
the Atlantic Coast of Florida....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather over the Northern
Great Plains on Wednesday...

...Mixed precipitation for the Northern Intermountain Region by
Wednesday...

A frontal system is currently progressing through the Great Lakes region
and is producing showers and thunderstorms. With sufficient moisture in
place and dew points currently in the 50s, this will support the
development of isolated severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather with the
possibility of hail and severe wind gusts. To the southwest in the central
Great Plains, the cold front will support a chance for a few isolated
thunderstorms to develop with severe weather risk with the best chance
mainly over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri where SPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather.

In Florida, with ample moisture in place and a cold front slowly moving
through which is creating multi-cell thunderstorms with a few supercell
possible, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather. In addition,
these storms may bring threats of damaging wind gusts and hail. These
thunderstorm will move slowly and pose a risk for flash flooding in urban
areas. Due to this potential hazard, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall.

On Wednesday, a frontal storm will move through the Northern Rockies into
the Northern Great Plains bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This system will bring a risk of severe weather over Central Montana in
which SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) due too the threat of
severe wind gusts potential with these thunderstorms. Farther east into
the Ohio Valley, and the Mid-Atlantic, the associated cold front currently
over the Great Lakes will move into the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic
tomorrow and will bring a round of severe weather. SPC has issued a
Marginal Risk of severe weather with stronger thunderstorms are capable of
producing isolated wind damage and localized severe wind gust.

In addition, the cold front system moving into the Northwest Pacific with
bring a chance for moderate wintry mix precipitating into the higher
elevation of the Cascades and the northern Rockies Wednesday into
Thursday. Lastly, above normal temperature out West will progress eastward
by Thursday into the Great Plains.

Green

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php