Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 17 2019 - 12Z Mon Aug 19 2019
...Severe weather and flash flooding possible across portions of the
Northern/Central Plains into the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley...
...Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are forecast for parts of the
coastal Southeast and Carolinas...
...Hot weather persists across much of the southern tier and stretching
into the East...
On Saturday, a cold front is expected to pass through the Northern and
Central Plains, while a couple of slow-moving fronts stretch across the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. These fronts will provide a
focus for thunderstorms, which could be severe and cause flash flooding.
The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk of severe weather
outlooked for portions of the Plains into the Mississippi Valley today,
while a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is in place as well. On Sunday,
severe thunderstorms are forecast farther south in the Middle Mississippi
Valley, with locally heavy rainfall possible.
A stationary frontal boundary and high moisture levels will lead to the
potential for multiple rounds of heavy rain through the weekend for
portions of the Southeast into the coastal Carolinas. The heaviest
rainfall totals are expected for the Florida Big Bend, which has received
ample rainfall over the past few days, so flooding and flash flooding are
threats there. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is located across
portions of Florida today, with another Slight Risk along the Carolina
coast where heavy rainfall may also focus. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible for the Central Gulf Coast as well.
Temperature-wise, it will remain warmer than average for much of the
southern half of the U.S. for the weekend. Excessive Heat Warnings are in
effect for portions of the Southwest, and record high temperatures could
be set in the Southern High Plains as highs over 100 degrees are forecast.
By Sunday, high temperatures in the 90s will extend as far north as the
Great Basin in the West and the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic in the East.
Meanwhile, the potent cold front will lead to much below average
temperatures for the Northern Plains for the weekend.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php