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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1846Z Oct 17, 2018)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 246 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018 Valid 00Z Thu Oct 18 2018 - 00Z Sat Oct 20 2018 ...Very cool and unsettled weather will persist across the Southern Plains with more areas of heavy rain and flash flooding expected... A front settling slowly south down across the Florida peninsula will extend west out over the Gulf of Mexico and then should be wedged well southwest over mainland Mexico going through the remainder of the week. Plenty of clouds and areas of rainfall are expected north of this front extending from the Southern Plains east across areas of the lower Mississippi Valley. Some of the heaviest rain will be focused over central Texas including the Hill Country where there will remain a threat for some flash flooding. The soil conditions here are saturated, and any additional rainfall will aggravate ongoing flooding concerns. The expansive area of cloudiness and rain will also continue to keep temperatures well below normal for this time of the year, and in some cases, the high temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below average. Meanwhile, a new cold front will be crossing the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight as a large area of cool and dry high pressure noses across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and toward the Eastern Seaboard through Thursday and Friday. The cold air dropping southeast across the Great Lakes region through tonight and early Thursday is likely to result in some lake-effect rain and snow showers for areas downwind of the lakes. By later Thursday, this will taper off, and warmer temperatures should then begin to spread back north up across the central and northern Plains, including the upper Midwest where temperatures will go back above normal. The milder trend though will be short-lived as a new cold front then drops south from Canada by Friday across the Midwest. Moisture surging northeast ahead of this front will allow for an area of showers to develop along and ahead of it by late Friday moving into the Eastern U.S. Elsewhere, the Western U.S. should generally see very dry and tranquil weather with temperatures near or slightly above normal. One exception will be down near the Four Corners region, where proximity to an upper low will maintain more cloudiness and a bit cooler temperatures. Orrison Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php