Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019
Valid 00Z Sun Jun 23 2019 - 00Z Tue Jun 25 2019
...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are both possible in the
central and eastern U.S. this weekend...
...Much below average temperatures in the West and snow across higher
elevations of the Central Rockies...
...Favorable fire weather conditions expected for the Southwest and
A deep and anomalous upper-level trough for this time of year will
continue moving eastward from the West into the central U.S. this weekend,
and bring a cold front slowly eastward with it. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected from the Plains into the eastern U.S. with
these features. For the reminder of today, severe weather is likely for
the Southern and Central Plains, as well as the Southeast, where an
Enhanced Risk is in effect from the Storm Prediction Center. Slight Risks
of both severe weather and flash flooding stretch from the Plains to the
Middle Mississippi Valley and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys today. Through the weekend, 2 to 4 inches of rain is forecast for
parts of the Southern Plains into western portions of Arkansas. Thus, a
Moderate Risk of flash flooding is outlooked for these areas on Sunday,
and severe weather is likely there as well with an Enhanced Risk in place
once again. By Monday the chances for heavy rain and severe weather
decrease slightly, as the cold front progresses south and east. However,
localized flooding and severe thunderstorms can't be completely ruled out
across eastern Texas and the Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected in parts of the western and
central U.S. for the rest of the weekend associated with the deep trough.
For the Central Great Basin to the Northern/Central Rockies and
Northern/Central High Plains, high temperatures are forecast to be 10 to
20 degrees below normal on Sunday. Temperatures will return closer to
normal, but still 5 to 10 degrees below average across the West on Monday.
Snow will continue through Sunday morning in higher elevations of the
West, especially in the Central Rockies of Colorado, where upwards of a
foot of snow has already fallen.
Gusty winds, dry fuels, and low relative humidities will combine to create
conditions favorable for fire weather for much of the Southwest to
Southern High Plains this afternoon and early evening. There is an
Elevated to Critical Risk of fire danger in these areas today, along with
the possibility for dry thunderstorms. North-central California also has
an Elevated Risk of favorable fire weather conditions Saturday. An
Elevated Risk remains for New Mexico on Sunday.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php