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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1938Z Jun 22, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 338 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Valid 00Z Sun Jun 23 2019 - 00Z Tue Jun 25 2019 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are both possible in the central and eastern U.S. this weekend... ...Much below average temperatures in the West and snow across higher elevations of the Central Rockies... ...Favorable fire weather conditions expected for the Southwest and north-central California... A deep and anomalous upper-level trough for this time of year will continue moving eastward from the West into the central U.S. this weekend, and bring a cold front slowly eastward with it. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected from the Plains into the eastern U.S. with these features. For the reminder of today, severe weather is likely for the Southern and Central Plains, as well as the Southeast, where an Enhanced Risk is in effect from the Storm Prediction Center. Slight Risks of both severe weather and flash flooding stretch from the Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys today. Through the weekend, 2 to 4 inches of rain is forecast for parts of the Southern Plains into western portions of Arkansas. Thus, a Moderate Risk of flash flooding is outlooked for these areas on Sunday, and severe weather is likely there as well with an Enhanced Risk in place once again. By Monday the chances for heavy rain and severe weather decrease slightly, as the cold front progresses south and east. However, localized flooding and severe thunderstorms can't be completely ruled out across eastern Texas and the Ohio Valley. Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected in parts of the western and central U.S. for the rest of the weekend associated with the deep trough. For the Central Great Basin to the Northern/Central Rockies and Northern/Central High Plains, high temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 20 degrees below normal on Sunday. Temperatures will return closer to normal, but still 5 to 10 degrees below average across the West on Monday. Snow will continue through Sunday morning in higher elevations of the West, especially in the Central Rockies of Colorado, where upwards of a foot of snow has already fallen. Gusty winds, dry fuels, and low relative humidities will combine to create conditions favorable for fire weather for much of the Southwest to Southern High Plains this afternoon and early evening. There is an Elevated to Critical Risk of fire danger in these areas today, along with the possibility for dry thunderstorms. North-central California also has an Elevated Risk of favorable fire weather conditions Saturday. An Elevated Risk remains for New Mexico on Sunday. Snell/Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php