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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0759Z May 27, 2022)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Valid 12Z Fri May 27 2022 - 12Z Sun May 29 2022 ...There will be a threat of heavy rainfall, some areas of flash flooding, and severe weather across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today... ...Much colder and unsettled weather is expected across the Intermountain West this weekend including the potential for higher elevation snowfall... ...Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains... ...Critical fire weather concerns exist across much of the Southwest and through the Southern Rockies... A rather active weather pattern will be on tap across the country today and for the weekend ahead. A cold front will be very slowly advancing east toward the East Coast today which should then gradually begin to edge offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Sunday as a weak area of high pressure builds in across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. However, this front will be interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass advancing up across the coastal plain, and should result in numerous areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Locally a few inches of rain will be possible which may result in some areas of flash flooding. Additionally, there will be a concern for some severe weather, and some of the thunderstorms today from the Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic may result in damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. Areas of showers and some locally heavy rainfall will be expected across parts of New York and New England too for today and on Saturday, but the East should gradually dry out by the end of the weekend. Meanwhile, a series of cold fronts will be advancing inland off the Pacific Ocean today and through the weekend which will bring a trend toward much cold temperatures and unsettled weather for much of the Intermountain West. This will especially be the case for the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies where there will be plenty of shower activity and some locally heavy rainfall. Sufficient cold air is expected to arrive by Saturday night and Sunday for there to be some locally heavy snowfall for portions of the northern Rockies, and some of the higher peaks of northwest Wyoming, southwest Montana and central Idaho involving the Tetons, Absoroka, and Sawtooth mountains respectfully may see 1 to 2 feet of snowfall to round out the weekend. Some beneficial rains will also begin to spread out across portions of the northern High Plains as as series of low pressure centers eject east out of the Rockies. However, there will be also be a concern for severe weather locally across the northern Plains as these cold fronts arrive this weekend. Some of the thunderstorms across the region may produce large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures behind the frontal passages will be below normal, and some parts of northern Great Basin will likely see high temperatures as much as 15 to 25 degrees below normal by Sunday. Ahead of the unsettled and much colder weather across the West this weekend, will be hot and dry conditions across areas of the central and southern Plains where high temperatures will warm well into the 90s and will locally exceed 100 degrees. Generally areas of west Texas and far eastern New Mexico will be the hottest, but these areas will also be quite dry which will set the stage regionally for elevated to critical fire weather concerns. In fact, the wildfire danger will encompass a rather large area with an emphasis on the southern Rockies and through much of the Southwest U.S. going through the weekend. Very low relative humidity, locally hot temperatures, and gusty winds will be in place and these conditions will be conducive for locally driving a high threat of wildfire activity. Orrison Graphics are available at