Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2020
Valid 00Z Sat Jul 04 2020 - 00Z Mon Jul 06 2020
...Severe thunderstorms possible over the northern Plains during the
Fourth of July weekend...
...Scattered thunderstorms expected to linger over the eastern Gulf Coast
to the lower Mississippi Valley...
...Summer heat continues across the northern Tier states; cool and damp
over New England but dry in the West for the Fourth of July weekend...
A somewhat sluggish weather pattern across the U.S. will tend to keep
similar weather conditions at any particular location during the Fourth of
July weekend. Starting out over the Pacific Northwest, cooler than normal
temperatures will stay entrenched as troughing maintains an onshore flow.
In contrast, a high pressure system will sustain high temperatures into
the 90s from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes and into the
Mid-Atlantic, especially for the coastal plains and urban areas.
Meanwhile, a back-door cold front will bring in cool temperatures into
New England with highs only in the 70s near the coast. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to taper off on Saturday but some
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over northern New England on Sunday
as another cold front arrives. Meanwhile, Florida may see another day
with near-record heat in the mid-90s.
A good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected near and
along a stationary frontal boundary from the Mid-South to the eastern half
of the Gulf Coast region, with some potential for flash flooding due to
some localized heavy rain totals. In the north-central U.S., a front will
promote some rain and thunderstorms (some severe) as well as some flash
flooding in areas that see heavier rain. On the southern part of the
western upper-level trough, southwesterly flow ahead of a front will lead
to gusty winds and low humidity in the Central Great Basin where fire
danger is elevated.
A fair amount of the Saharan dust continues to linger across the Gulf
Coast region into Florida. The sluggish weather pattern will make it
difficult for the dust to disperse during the Fourth of July weekend. The
primary impacts of the Saharan dust are hazy skies during the day, locally
reduced visibility, degraded air quality, and the potential for vividly
colorful sunrises and sunsets.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php