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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1949Z May 22, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 349 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 00Z Thu May 23 2024 - 00Z Sat May 25 2024 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains/ Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and over parts of the Central Plains on Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and Thursday... ...Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies on Wednesday evening into Thursday... On Wednesday evening, a front over the Northern Intermountain Region to the Great Basin will advance to the Northern/Central Plains into the Central Rockies by Thursday. The system will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over the Northern Cascades. As the boundary moves farther eastward, the snow levels will lower, producing snow over the Northern Intermountain Region overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The system will produce heavy snow at the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies through Thursday, and the snow will end overnight Thursday. In addition, another front extending from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern High Plains will move eastward to the Northeast Coast by Thursday evening. On Thursday, the southern half of the boundary moves northward as a warm front over the Southern Plains. The front will fire showers and severe thunderstorms from western New York to the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains through Thursday morning. The potential hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat of rain, two inches or greater, over parts of the area. Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Thursday, as the front from the Northwest moves out of the Rockies, the system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over most of the Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over the region. Furthermore, there will be another region of an increased threat of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Central/Southern Plains. Moreover, some showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Friday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall decreases slightly as the boundary moves into the Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Western Ohio Valley and Middle Lower Mississippi. The hazards associated with these strong to severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Similarly, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes, Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Moreover, there is a second area of Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Meanwhile, a tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in spawning Heat Advisories over southern Texas through Friday. The ridging will create a dangerous early-season heat wave over south Texas. Record or near-record warm overnight temperatures will provide little to no relief to those without adequate or reliable cooling. By this weekend, record daily high temperatures and heat index readings over 115 degrees in south Texas will also be possible. Check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. If you use a portable generator, do so safely to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Never use a generator inside a house, garage, or other enclosed space! Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php