Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019
Valid 00Z Sun Jul 14 2019 - 00Z Tue Jul 16 2019
...Hurricane Barry has made landfall along the South-Central Louisiana
coast and has returned to a tropical storm causing significant flooding
from very heavy rain and storm surge...
Tropical Storm Barry, currently located a long the South-Central Louisiana
coast, is forecast to move northward to the middle of Louisiana by Sunday
morning. High winds and dangerous storm surge are likely, along with
widespread flash flooding and river flooding. As Barry will be
slow-moving, total rainfall amounts are forecast to be 10 to 20 inches
over South-Central and Southeastern Louisiana and Southwestern
Mississippi, with isolated amounts over 25 inches. Over the remainder of
the Lower Mississippi Valley and Western Tennessee Valley, rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are expected.
Thus, a High Risk of flash flooding is in place for parts of Southeastern
Louisiana and extreme Southwestern Mississippi through Sunday morning, and
a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday into Monday morning for
much of the Lower Mississippi Valley as heavy rainfall from Barry spreads
northward. Additionally, a few brief tornadoes are possible within outer
bands of Barry, so a Slight Risk of severe weather is in place today for
the Central Gulf Coast.
Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will develop a long a front over the
Northern Plains on Sunday. A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is
forecasted over the Northern High Plains as depicted by the Storm
Prediction Center on both Saturday and Sunday. Slight Risks of flash
flooding and severe weather are both in place for the Midwest on Sunday.
Some scattered thunderstorms are also possible a long the front farther
east, for the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Northeast on Saturday
evening and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Gulf moisture flowing into
the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Carolinas to another front will lead
to scattered thunderstorms in those areas, which could cause heavy
rainfall. Additionally, afternoon/evening scattered thunderstorms are
possible from the Great Basin and Southwest to the Rockies from Saturday
evening into Monday.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php