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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0746Z Sep 25, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 346 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 25 2023 - 12Z Wed Sep 27 2023 ...Heavy rain and the potential for scattered flash flooding exists over parts of the Upper Midwest through Tuesday... ...Unsettled weather pattern with daily chances for widely scattered thunderstorms to set up over Florida this week... ...A few rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall forecast throughout northern California and the Pacific Northwest into midweek... The start to a new workweek will include a few pockets of showers and thunderstorms, but generally feature a tame fall weather pattern across CONUS. A slow-moving low pressure system spinning in the Upper Midwest today will help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Since these storms are likely to move relatively slowly and potentially contain intense rainfall rates, instances of flash flooding are possible. The greatest chances for heavy rain is forecast today across far southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin. Here, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued. Rainfall chances will slide southeastward with this system on Tuesday over the Midwest, with more chances for locally intense rainfall rates, and eventually enter the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Farther south along a stalled frontal boundary, isolated thunderstorms could turn severe today across southern Texas. Large and hail and damaging wind gusts are possible, as well as locally heavy rain. Meanwhile, Florida is also expected to be an area where increasing thunderstorm activity could lead to localized severe storms. The unsettled weather pattern over the Sunshine State is expected to become more pronounced as the week goes on, with greater coverage of thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates and frequent lightning. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for Tuesday and Wednesday over much of Florida as well as into parts of southern Georgia, with urban areas most at risk for rapid water rises during downpours. A very strong low pressure system churning over the northeast Pacific Ocean has helped usher in early season beneficial rainfall to much of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Moderate to locally heavy rain spreading inland today along a cold front is expected to impact areas of Oregon and Washington experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions. Another round of locally heavy rain embedded within continuous rounds of scattered showers is forecast to enter the region late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. One area where too much rain could lead to localized flooding concerns is across southwest Oregon and northern California. This is due to recent burn scars in the area that are unable to retain heavy rainfall, potentially leading to debris flows. Temperatures are anticipated to remain well below average through Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic and West Coast, where a combination of rain, wind, and cloud cover will keep temperatures cool. A coastal storm gradually exiting into the western Atlantic Ocean while underneath a potent high pressure system building over eastern Canada will help funnel easterly winds and light rain into the Mid-Atlantic, with some embedded heavier showers over parts of Long Island and southern Connecticut today. Conversely, above average temperatures are forecast over much of the central U.S. (spanning from the northern High Plains to the Mid-South), where highs into the 80s and low 90s will be common. Snell Graphics available at