Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 24 2023 - 00Z Sun Mar 26 2023

...Strong to severe thunderstorms will be a significant concern this
evening and continuing through Friday night from the Southern Plains, the
Mid-South, and Lower Mississippi Valley to possibly the Ohio Valley...

...Widespread heavy rain and flash flooding setting up across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley this evening through Friday night...

...An intensifying low pressure system will likely bring very strong
winds, heavy rain/thunderstorms into the Ohio Valley as heavy snow could
develop across the Midwest into lower Michigan Saturday morning...
 
...Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy mountain
snowfall to continue across the West...

...Very warm temperatures will prevail through the end of the week across
much of the South through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic...

A quasi-stationary front will be the focus for severe thunderstorms across
central Texas and Oklahoma tonight. The Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms issued by the Storm Prediction Center highlights the
possibility of large and potentially destructive hail, isolated severe
wind gusts, or a tornado associated with this evening's threat. Abundant
moisture, supplied by the Gulf of Mexico, will interact with the
aforementioned quasi-stationary front, producing heavy rain and subsequent
flash flooding risks from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley tonight.
A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for much of the Ozarks
region where potential 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates could cause flash flooding.

A deepening upper-level trough spinning through the Southern Plains will
then kick on a surface low pressure system to begin rapidly intensifying
over northern Texas and into the Mid-South through Friday. The attendant
cold front will become the focus for severe weather from the ArkLaTex to
the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon into the evening. A Moderate risk of
Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley where, according to the Storm Prediction Center, some strong
tornadoes, damaging winds and hail are expected. Meanwhile, the
quasi-stationary front responsible for dangerous weather tonight will be
responsible for another round of heavy rainfall from the Mid-South to the
Ohio Valley. There's a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall from
northeastern Arkansas along the Ohio River into southwestern Ohio where
2-4 inches of rainfall over primed soils and streams may cause flash
flooding.

Heavy snow and strong winds are likely to develop on the north side of the
dynamic Mid-South/Midwest system early Saturday morning, and continue into
the evening. Between 4-8 inches of snow is expected by Sunday morning from
southeastern Wisconsin to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This could lead
to tricky travel across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Elsewhere,
chilly temperatures persist across the West, while seasonably warm
temperatures spread across the southeastern quadrant of the country
through this weekend. Heavy snow blankets the western mountains over the
next couple of days, as well. There's a critical fire weather area for
portions of west Texas tomorrow due to dry and windy conditions.

Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php