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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1914Z Jul 13, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 314 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Valid 00Z Sun Jul 14 2019 - 00Z Tue Jul 16 2019 ...Hurricane Barry has made landfall along the South-Central Louisiana coast and has returned to a tropical storm causing significant flooding from very heavy rain and storm surge... Tropical Storm Barry, currently located a long the South-Central Louisiana coast, is forecast to move northward to the middle of Louisiana by Sunday morning. High winds and dangerous storm surge are likely, along with widespread flash flooding and river flooding. As Barry will be slow-moving, total rainfall amounts are forecast to be 10 to 20 inches over South-Central and Southeastern Louisiana and Southwestern Mississippi, with isolated amounts over 25 inches. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Western Tennessee Valley, rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. Thus, a High Risk of flash flooding is in place for parts of Southeastern Louisiana and extreme Southwestern Mississippi through Sunday morning, and a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday into Monday morning for much of the Lower Mississippi Valley as heavy rainfall from Barry spreads northward. Additionally, a few brief tornadoes are possible within outer bands of Barry, so a Slight Risk of severe weather is in place today for the Central Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will develop a long a front over the Northern Plains on Sunday. A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is forecasted over the Northern High Plains as depicted by the Storm Prediction Center on both Saturday and Sunday. Slight Risks of flash flooding and severe weather are both in place for the Midwest on Sunday. Some scattered thunderstorms are also possible a long the front farther east, for the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Northeast on Saturday evening and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Gulf moisture flowing into the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Carolinas to another front will lead to scattered thunderstorms in those areas, which could cause heavy rainfall. Additionally, afternoon/evening scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Great Basin and Southwest to the Rockies from Saturday evening into Monday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php