Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 09 2025 - 12Z Fri Jul 11 2025

...The Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic will see the potential for severe
weather and flooding rainfall over the next couple of days...

...Late-day strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected
to impact the northern and central Plains...

...Storms along a stalling frontal boundary across the Northeast will cool
temperatures; the Desert Southwest will be heating up as high temperatures
in the range of 110-118 deg prompt Extreme Heat Warnings into Thursday...

An approaching cold front will stall across the Mid-Atlantic for today and
Thursday.  In conjunction with the front serving as a lifting mechanism,
rich moisture at the surface converging along a lee-side trough during the
hottest times of the day will further facilitate an atmopshere capable of
supporting high rainfall rates.  The Weather Prediction Center has
rainfall forecast amounts of 3-4 inches in the next 3 days for some
locations in central Virginia, and 2-3 inches from Delaware to the Jersey
Shore and across central North Carolina.  Multiple waves of storms and
high rainfall rates mean flash flooding is possible.  WPC has introduced a
moderate risk of Excessive Rainfall over central Virginia to northern
North Carolina for today into early Thursday, with a slight risk covering
a good chunk of the Mid-Atlantic, nearby Appalachians into the upper Ohio
Valley and interior Southeast.  Thursday will see a similar synoptic
weather setup, only with the upper trough edging further into the
Northeast, shifting the most favorable conditions for strong to severe
thunderstorms farther south into the Carolinas.  The most favorable
locations for heavy rain and flash flooding are anticipated to be from
North Carolina to southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Another area most favorable for severe weather and heavy rainfall will be
across the northern and central Plains during the next couple of days. 
This is in response to a front beginning to lift north as a warm front. 
The best chance for severe thunderstorms later today will be across the
northern Plains.  A more widespread threat of severe weather is expected
later on Thursday across the northern and central Plains as a stronger
shortwave trough gets ready to eject out of the northern Rockies into the
northern U.S.  The more widespread nature of the severe weather on
Thursday will lead to a higher threat of heavy rainfall.  Therefore, WPC
has issued a slight risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the
north-central U.S. from Thursday into Friday morning.

Upper level ridging will remain anchored across the Southwest. 
Temperatures will be hazardous to the public and hot weather precautions
should be taken through at least Thursday.  High temperatures from the
California valleys to New Mexico may enter the low 100s.  The deserts of
Arizona and California are under an Extreme Heat Warning through Thursday
with high temperatures nearing record highs and approaching the mid 110s
F. The Northeast should see the mini heat-wave end as a front swings into
the area with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms.  The Southeast
will see typical heat and humidity for July, but apparent temperatures
will be in the upper 90s and low 100s could still raise heat risk
concerns.  For fire weather threats, the Storm Prediction Center has a
Elevated fire weather danger across the interior Northwest and the Great
Basin for today, as dry fuels and gusty southwesterly surface winds
provide favorable conditions for fire spread.

Kong/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php