Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 14 2019 - 00Z Sat Nov 16 2019

... Last vestiges of record cold remain across the Central and Northern
East Coast through tonight; however, below average temperatures will
remain through the eastern half of the CONUS through the weekend...

...Lake Effect snows will tapper tonight replaced by broad area of
quiescent weather through the end of the work week...

...Developing Gale along the Southeast Coast by Friday...

The early season record breaking arctic outbreak remains over the East
Coast for the remainder of today into tonight.  Record low temperatures
are expected from the Delmarva peninsula into the Northeast at a handful
of sites.

A second cold front is pressing southward across the Central and Southern
Plains today and shift eastward to the Ohio valley Thursday and weakening
through the East Coast by Friday.  This will keep temperatures below
average for the remainder of the work week. However, the air mass's origin
is from the Pacific, so is not as brutally cold as the preceding one. 
Still, the upper-level low pressure from the Pacific will merge with a
weak upper-level low out of Northern Mexico inducing a surface wave along
the lingering frontal zone in the Gulf of Mexico by late Thurs.  This wave
will strengthen  across the Northern Florida Peninsula and and as it
reaches warmer waters along the Gulf Stream off the GA/Carolina coast, it
is forecast to become a strong gale Friday (perhaps a storm by Sat). 
Moderate to Occasionally heavy rainfall may occur across N FL and along
the GA/Carolina coasts for the end of the work week; the Weather
Prediction Center has Marginal Risk areas of Excessive Rainfall, so
isolated flooding may be a concern. 

The next arctic airmass will be shunted further north mainly to affect
Southern Prairies of Canada, though it does clip northeastern North
Dakota, northern  Minnesota after the cold front passes Thursday
night/Friday morning and grazing the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Great
Lakes on Friday.

In the West, above average temperatures will remain and expand eastward on
Thursday and Friday reaching the Northern and Central High Plains by the
end of Friday ahead of a Pacific cold front.  Moisture will stream
northward out of the Pacific but will only affect extreme NW California
into the WA, with Vancouver Island and the Olympic Peninsula coming out
wettest.  While the Southwest/Southern California/Southern Rockies will
remain warm, however, there will be modest humidity values and winds are
expected to be weak; therefore, fire danger is lower than recent weeks and
there are no Red Flag conditions raised by local National Weather Service
forecast offices or an area of concern highlighted by the Storm
Predication Center at this time.

Gallina


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php