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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1921Z Nov 13, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 221 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Valid 00Z Thu Nov 14 2019 - 00Z Sat Nov 16 2019 ... Last vestiges of record cold remain across the Central and Northern East Coast through tonight; however, below average temperatures will remain through the eastern half of the CONUS through the weekend... ...Lake Effect snows will tapper tonight replaced by broad area of quiescent weather through the end of the work week... ...Developing Gale along the Southeast Coast by Friday... The early season record breaking arctic outbreak remains over the East Coast for the remainder of today into tonight. Record low temperatures are expected from the Delmarva peninsula into the Northeast at a handful of sites. A second cold front is pressing southward across the Central and Southern Plains today and shift eastward to the Ohio valley Thursday and weakening through the East Coast by Friday. This will keep temperatures below average for the remainder of the work week. However, the air mass's origin is from the Pacific, so is not as brutally cold as the preceding one. Still, the upper-level low pressure from the Pacific will merge with a weak upper-level low out of Northern Mexico inducing a surface wave along the lingering frontal zone in the Gulf of Mexico by late Thurs. This wave will strengthen across the Northern Florida Peninsula and and as it reaches warmer waters along the Gulf Stream off the GA/Carolina coast, it is forecast to become a strong gale Friday (perhaps a storm by Sat). Moderate to Occasionally heavy rainfall may occur across N FL and along the GA/Carolina coasts for the end of the work week; the Weather Prediction Center has Marginal Risk areas of Excessive Rainfall, so isolated flooding may be a concern. The next arctic airmass will be shunted further north mainly to affect Southern Prairies of Canada, though it does clip northeastern North Dakota, northern Minnesota after the cold front passes Thursday night/Friday morning and grazing the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Great Lakes on Friday. In the West, above average temperatures will remain and expand eastward on Thursday and Friday reaching the Northern and Central High Plains by the end of Friday ahead of a Pacific cold front. Moisture will stream northward out of the Pacific but will only affect extreme NW California into the WA, with Vancouver Island and the Olympic Peninsula coming out wettest. While the Southwest/Southern California/Southern Rockies will remain warm, however, there will be modest humidity values and winds are expected to be weak; therefore, fire danger is lower than recent weeks and there are no Red Flag conditions raised by local National Weather Service forecast offices or an area of concern highlighted by the Storm Predication Center at this time. Gallina Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php