Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 04 2026 - 00Z Tue Oct 06 2026

...Excessive rainfall threat across the Southeast on Sunday while
continuing across the central Gulf Coast and southern Texas while this
weekend...

...A long duration October heatwave emerging across central and southern
California before spreading into the Great Basin...

Over the next couple of days, heavy rainfall threat will remain focused
over the Gulf Coast and Southeast, while an anomalous October heatwave
builds across the western U.S. The lingering wet weather pattern is the
result of a cool and dry air mass across the northern tier of the country
interacting with a tropical wave over the Gulf. The Weather Prediction
Center maintains a Slight Risk (at least 15% chance) of excessive rainfall
 today near the central Gulf Coast, lower Texas Coast, and eastern North
Carolina. By tomorrow, the focus for scattered flash flooding is forecast
to lift northeastward across the interior Southeast with the passage of a
weak upper-trough. The latest forecast still suggests a few inches of
heavy rain can be expected this weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with
a maximum of 7 inches possible near the Gulf Shores and Florida Panhandle.
The heavy rainfall threat will gradually decrease from Sunday night to
Monday morning for the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast as the trough
nudges the front farther to the south. Until that happens, however, Flood
Watches are in effect through late Sunday and early Monday from coastal
Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle, respectively.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system sweeping across the Northern Tier will
fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms across Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
through tomorrow. By early Monday morning, a strong trailing cold front
will intensify this low pressure system and potentially bring heavy
showers and embedded thunderstorms into interior New England. Across the
Mid-Atlantic, showers behind a cold front early this morning will move off
the coast as the cool air mass from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast takes
over. Rain chances will return tomorrow morning, however, as a surface low
develops over the Carolinas later today and lifts into the western
Atlantic on Sunday. 

As the wet pattern persists across the South, an anomalous ridge of high
pressure will build a late season October heatwave across the western U.S.
through next week. Temperatures will run 15 to 20 degrees above normal,
bringing highs well into the 90s toward the coast and adjacent urban
areas, with some areas in the Central Valley of California nearing 100.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s in the Los Angeles and San Diego
urban areas will provide little relief through the heat wave. Extreme Heat
Warnings are in effect for much of Southern California, while Heat
Advisories extend across the Central Valley and Bay Area. The heat will
then expand farther northeast over the next couple of days, with high
temperatures in the 80s and near 90 degrees emerging across the Great
Basin. A few daily temperature records could fall over the next few days
in California and the Great Basin as a result.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php