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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2016Z May 25, 2022)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 416 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022 Valid 00Z Thu May 26 2022 - 00Z Sat May 28 2022 ...Flash flooding and severe weather threat continues for the eastern half of the country... ...Above normal temperatures and some fire weather risk expected in the West... ...Pacific storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms from the Northwest to the Northern Great Plains late Thursday into Friday... The risk for flash flooding and severe weather will accompany a complex storm system moving through the eastern half of the country through the short-term forecast period (Friday evening). A warm, moist airmass will continue to expand northward as a warm front lifts north through the Great Lakes region late Wednesday and a cold front moves slowly eastward, helping to maintain the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms. There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall Thursday for the Central Gulf Coast where thunderstorms will tend to develop and move over the same areas promoting widespread rainfall totals between 2-3 inches, with the risk of significantly higher totals between 3-6 inches possible. Rainfall over the region Wednesday will also leave saturated soils contributing to the risk for flooding. A broader Slight Risk is in place northward through portions of the Southeast into the Southern Appalachians with rainfall totals between 1-2 inches forecast, locally as high as 3-4 inches into the Southern Appalachians. Further northward, there is a severe weather risk across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5). Storms will carry the threat for gusty winds along with isolated instances of hail and perhaps a tornado. The heavy rainfall and severe weather risk continues Friday as the cold front moves slowly eastward. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the Piedmont of North Carolina north through the Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall totals between 1-2 inches are forecast, with isolated totals above 3 inches possible. There is also a Slight Risk of severe weather across the same region as gusty winds accompany lines of thunderstorms moving across the area, with some hail also expected. Outside of the highlighted risk areas, rainfall locally of up to an inch is possible for locations from the Central Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Meanwhile, in the West, well above normal temperatures across California Wednesday will expand eastward to the Great Basin as well as the Rockies and High Plains Thursday and Friday as an upper-level ridge moves across the region. High temperatures Thursday in the Great Basin will reach the low 90s, around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. The high temperatures as well as dry conditions and gusty downslope winds have prompted an Elevated Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center for most of Nevada. Hot temperatures will also continue across the San Joaquin Valley of California and the Desert Southwest with highs at or above 100 forecast. The High Plains will see similarly abnormal high temperatures Friday with highs into the 90s as far north as South Dakota. Later in the period, a Pacific storm system will move into the Northwest late Thursday afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, along will cooler temperatures, will expand from the coast to the Northern Rockies. Storms are expected to continue Friday as a cold front pushes eastward across the region with showers and thunderstorms spreading into the Northern Plains by Friday evening. Putnam Graphics are available at