Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

...Lingering heavy rainfall and severe weather over parts of the southern
Appalachians and Southeast today...

...Wintry weather to spread from the northern Great Lakes into New
England...

A snapshot of the weather pattern tonight shows a pair of low pressure
centers which will drive much of our interesting weather for the next two
days, including a Clipper along the Northern Tier and a southern low near
the Gulf Coast. The southernmost low and associated cold front continues
to drive flash flooding and severe weather across the Southeast as it
interacts with a very warm and unstable pre-frontal airmass. Through this
morning, numerous instances of flash flooding and scattered severe weather
remain possible over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf
States as additional thunderstorm complexes form. Fortunately, the threat
of excessive rainfall will decrease with the frontal passage beyond this
morning, although an isolated flash flood can not be ruled out in the
southern Appalachians today. Adjacent areas  across of the Mid-Atlantic
and Tennessee Valley can expect a washout today as steady (but benign)
rain overspreads the region. 

At the same time, wintry weather is expected to increase over the northern
Great Lakes and Upper Midwest as cold air provided by the Clipper mingles
with an influx of moisture from the Gulf low. Moderate to locally heavy
snowfall is forecast to overspread the northern Great Lakes this morning
and continue through the day, leading to 4-6" downwind of Lake Michigan
and atop the Upper Peninsula. By tomorrow afternoon, one dominant low is
expected to emerge near Lake Erie, while a wintry mix forms over the
Interior Northeast and New England. Freezing rain remains the biggest
hazard with this mix with cold air damming in place, and some areas in
eastern New York, Vermont, and western Massachusetts could measure a tenth
of an inch through Sunday. 

Temperature wise, the passage of a cold front on Sunday will interrupt the
unseasonably mild weather the Eastern U.S. has seen for the last few days,
bringing in highs back down to the 30's and 40's. In contrast, much above
normal warmth can be found over the Northern and Central Plains as warm
air descends the Rockies, leading to highs which range from the 40's-60's.

Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php