Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 13 2026 - 00Z Mon Jun 15 2026

...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected today in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

...A cold front will bring strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging winds, large hail, and numerous instances of flash
flooding across the Plains and Mid-Mississippi on Saturday...

...Thunderstorms are forecast to move eastward into the Northeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and much of the South to end the weekend...

...Heat will begin to subside over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to begin
the weekend, while the Southeast remains hot...

An active end to the week is set to continue for much of the eastern
portion of the country, as multiple frontal systems bring consecutive
rounds of thunderstorms over the next few days. The leading cold front
will continue moving through the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Southern Plains
through the remainder of today, advancing steadily toward the East Coast
this evening and overnight. This will result in strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms this evening from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast,
bringing a primary risk of damaging winds. As such, the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for
this area for the remainder of today. Elsewhere across the Southern High
Plains, a stationary boundary is forecast to quickly lift northward.
Concurrently, low-level moisture is expected to flow northward and
converge with the frontal boundary, initiating strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms over the Southern
High Plains will carry a risk of damaging winds and large hail. The SPC
has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for this region
through tonight as well.

On Saturday, a secondary and more potent cold front will propagate
southeastward from the Northern Plains, reaching the Southern Plains by
evening. This feature will intersect the southward-slumping warm front,
establishing a strong low-level convergence zone within a warm, moist, and
highly unstable airmass. This environment will support repeated rounds of
strong to severe thunderstorms across the Kansas and Missouri border
through the evening hours. Thunderstorms will bring a renewed potential
for damaging winds and large hail, prompting the SPC to outline an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather. Additionally, heavy rainfall
is expected, particularly over the Kansas City metropolitan area and its
surroundings. Rainfall will have the potential to produce numerous
instances of flash and urban flooding; consequently, a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of excessive rainfall has been introduced for Saturday. To end
the weekend, the cold front will continue its progression toward the East
Coast and much of the South. Thunderstorms on Sunday are expected to
recommence, bringing a threat of scattered flash flooding through parts of
Texas and the Southern Plains.

Elsewhere, a round of generally light rainfall is expected tonight into
Saturday morning across Montana, associated with the secondary cold front.
Monsoonal showers are forecast to emerge over the Four Corners and
Southern Rockies later on Saturday. The Desert Southwest and the Central
Valley of California will remain hot into the weekend, with highs in the
110s and 100s, respectively. Meanwhile, heat is forecast to build across
the Pacific Northwest, with record-high temperatures potentially reaching
into the 80s and lower 90s by Sunday afternoon. Farther east, hot
conditions are expected to begin subsiding across much of the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast on Saturday, while the South remains very warm throughout
the weekend.


Blanco-Alcala/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php