Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EST Thu Dec 06 2018
Valid 00Z Fri Dec 07 2018 - 00Z Sun Dec 09 2018
...Late week winter storm to bring ice and snow from parts of the Southern
Plains on Friday and eastward to the Appalachians by Saturday...
...Heavy rainfall begins to impact Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley
...Below to well below normal temperatures expected across the Great
Plains and Midwest...
Radar, satellite and surface observations denote a cold low approaching
southern California producing moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall with
a flash flood warning currently in affect near Los Angeles likely to
linger for the remainder of the evening before the storm moves into the
desert Southwest by tomorrow. Ahead of this storm, cold air is already
spilling into the Southern High Plains eventually centering over the Texas
Panhandle and Western Oklahoma and lead to well below normal afternoon
highs today and Friday with departures about 15 to 25 degrees below
average. A more modest but still below average cold spell (5 to 10
degrees below normal) cross through the Midwest and Great Lakes region
through the weekend; this cold wind and still warm lakes should produce
Lake Effect snow and lighter snow showers through the Midwest and central
Appalachians tonight into tomorrow.
As the Southwestern storm advances, moisture lifted out of the tropical
East Pacific will blow downstream into the southern Great Plains over the
cold grounds, setting the stage for accumulating snow and ice.
Accumulating snow from eastern New Mexico to Arkansas appears likely
Friday into Saturday with snow totals of 3 to 6 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible especially over the Texas Panhandle. South and
east of the snow, a band of potentially hazardous freezing rain from
roughly Lubbock, TX to Oklahoma City and into the Ozarks of northern
Arkansas with accumulations in the .10 to .25 inch range is possible.
South of the wintry mix, heavy rainfall is likely across eastern Texas
with totals of 3 to 5 inches possible with highest values nearer the
central and eastern Texas Gulf Coast; WPC has highlighted this area with a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (potential flooding/flash flooding)
with a Slight Risk surrounding it and extending further east into the
lower Mississippi River Valley as the storm shift east into Saturday.
This same system will push eastward and continue beyond the short range
period spreading hazardous wintry weather from parts Tennessee River
Valley into the southern Appalachians, with heavy rainfall threat across
the South (greatest focus on into the Southeast.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php