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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0801Z Oct 03, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 AM EDT Mon Oct 03 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 03 2022 - 12Z Wed Oct 05 2022 ...Rainy, breezy, and cool conditions continue for the Mid-Atlantic as storm system churns just offshore... ...Shower and thunderstorm chances remain for the Four Corners region... ...Above average temperatures forecast for the Plains and Midwest as well as the Great Basin and West Coast... A low pressure system located off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic as well as an upper-level low aloft will remain relatively stationary over the next couple of days, with the rainy and breezy conditions seen over the weekend continuing into the start of the work week. The heaviest rainfall will be concentrated around the Chesapeake Bay east over the Delmarva Peninsula, with totals over the next couple of days generally around 1-2 inches, and locally higher totals of 3+ inches possible. Winds are expected to calm a bit compared to the over the weekend but still remain breezy, especially near the coast, and coastal flooding will also remain a concern. Temperatures will be cool across the Mid-Atlantic as the widespread rain and clouds continue, and more generally across the East as high pressure remains in place to the north and west and cooler air pushes southward on the back side of the system. In fact, there are Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories across much of the Interior Northeast for this morning as lows dip into the upper 20s to mid-30s. Widespread chilly morning lows are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday morning as well, with 30s again for the Interior Northeast and 40s as far south as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Highs Monday will range from the mid-50s to low 60s in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, low to upper 60s for the Carolinas, and mid-70s to low 80s for the Southeast and Florida. Highs will warm a bit into the mid-60s for the Interior Northeast Tuesday but remain cool and in the mid-50s for the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a second upper-level low over the Northern Rockies will slowly drift to the Northern Plains by Tuesday as a frontal boundary moves to the southeast across the Rockies and Great Basin. Anomalously high moisture and the upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies both Monday and Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are possible, and may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding, particularly around any terrain sensitive areas such as slot canyons, dry washes, and burn scars. High temperatures will be above average for much of the Plains and Midwest as upper-level ridging remains in place Monday. Forecast highs range from the 70s in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest into the 80s for the Central and Southern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Elevated Risk of fire weather from the Central Plains northeast into the Mid-Missouri Valley where the warm temperatures will coincide with low relative humidity, higher winds, and dry vegetation. A cold front will move slowly to the southeast across the Northern and Central Plains Monday into Tuesday, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will cool off a bit behind the front on Tuesday, with upper 60s to low 70s expected. Highs will also be above average for much of the Great Basin and West Coast as upper-level ridging builds in over the region. Forecast temperatures range from the upper 70s to low 80s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, the mid to upper 80s for the central California Valleys, and 90s to low 100s for the Desert Southwest. Putnam Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php