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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1924Z Dec 06, 2018)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 224 PM EST Thu Dec 06 2018 Valid 00Z Fri Dec 07 2018 - 00Z Sun Dec 09 2018 ...Late week winter storm to bring ice and snow from parts of the Southern Plains on Friday and eastward to the Appalachians by Saturday... ...Heavy rainfall begins to impact Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday... ...Below to well below normal temperatures expected across the Great Plains and Midwest... Radar, satellite and surface observations denote a cold low approaching southern California producing moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall with a flash flood warning currently in affect near Los Angeles likely to linger for the remainder of the evening before the storm moves into the desert Southwest by tomorrow. Ahead of this storm, cold air is already spilling into the Southern High Plains eventually centering over the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma and lead to well below normal afternoon highs today and Friday with departures about 15 to 25 degrees below average. A more modest but still below average cold spell (5 to 10 degrees below normal) cross through the Midwest and Great Lakes region through the weekend; this cold wind and still warm lakes should produce Lake Effect snow and lighter snow showers through the Midwest and central Appalachians tonight into tomorrow. As the Southwestern storm advances, moisture lifted out of the tropical East Pacific will blow downstream into the southern Great Plains over the cold grounds, setting the stage for accumulating snow and ice. Accumulating snow from eastern New Mexico to Arkansas appears likely Friday into Saturday with snow totals of 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts possible especially over the Texas Panhandle. South and east of the snow, a band of potentially hazardous freezing rain from roughly Lubbock, TX to Oklahoma City and into the Ozarks of northern Arkansas with accumulations in the .10 to .25 inch range is possible. South of the wintry mix, heavy rainfall is likely across eastern Texas with totals of 3 to 5 inches possible with highest values nearer the central and eastern Texas Gulf Coast; WPC has highlighted this area with a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (potential flooding/flash flooding) with a Slight Risk surrounding it and extending further east into the lower Mississippi River Valley as the storm shift east into Saturday. This same system will push eastward and continue beyond the short range period spreading hazardous wintry weather from parts Tennessee River Valley into the southern Appalachians, with heavy rainfall threat across the South (greatest focus on into the Southeast. Gallina Graphics available at