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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0758Z Sep 18, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 18 2023 - 12Z Wed Sep 20 2023 ...Heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding possible for New England Monday... ...Heavy rain and severe storm chances return to parts of the Southern Plains on Tuesday... ...Hot late Summer temperatures for the heartland to start the week... Shower and storm chances should diminish for much of the East Coast this morning as a pair of frontal systems push off into the Atlantic. However, an organizing low pressure system just off the coast will track northward towards New England, helping to funnel warm, very moist air into the region. Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast to push northward through much of New England through the day Monday, with the most consistent, heaviest rainfall expected closer to the Atlantic Coast. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) has been introduced for portions of coastal and Downeast Maine where wetter antecedent conditions, including rainfall associated with Lee this past weekend, will lead to a locally higher chance for some scattered instances of flash flooding. Rain chances should clear from south to north through early Tuesday morning. Additionally, wet weather is expected across much of the central and southern Florida Peninsula as the slow-moving cold front lingers over the region, sparking widespread daily thunderstorm chances early this week. Forecast highs are generally below average broadly across the East following the frontal passages, with 60s and 70s from the Midwest to the Northeast, upper 70s to mid-80s for the Southeast, and upper 80s to low 90s for Florida. A subtle upper-level wave is forecast to eject eastward from the Rockies over the Southern Plains Tuesday, passing over very moist southerly return flow from the Gulf of Mexico and interacting with a lingering frontal boundary, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm chances by Tuesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms from northwest Texas into Oklahoma as some of the more robust initial storms may produce some large hail and damaging wind gusts. In addition, the potential for very heavy downpours as well as for storms to congeal into more widespread clusters into the evening hours may lead to some flash flood risk, and a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been introduced. An upper-level ridge shifting eastward over the Plains will continue to lead to unseasonably hot late Summer high temperatures for much of the heartland to start the week. Forecast highs are in the 80s to low 90s broadly across the Central and Northern Plains with low to mid-90s expected for the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. These highs will be running 10-20 degrees above average, particularly over the Northern Plains. An upper-level wave/cold front pushing eastward from the Pacific Northwest will begin to bring some cooler, more seasonable temperatures to northern portions of the High Plains on Tuesday, with 70s forecast. Conditions will be mostly dry broadly across the western and central U.S. outside of the aforementioned storm chances over the Southern Plains. The combination of hot temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds have promoted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center for portions of the Northern High Plains Monday. Highs in the 60s and 70s will be a bit below average for the Pacific Northwest and coastal California. Seasonable highs in the 80s are forecast for central California into the Great Basin with 90s expected for the Desert Southwest. Putnam Graphics available at