Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 11 2024 - 00Z Fri Sep 13 2024

...Francine is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday 
with hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge and
torrential rainfall up into the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
through Thursday...

...A round of moderate to heavy rain with high-elevation snow for the
northern Rockies late Wednesday into Thursday night...

...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns across much of the Great
Basin and portions of the High Plains...

As a ridge of high pressure continues to deliver fine and pleasant
fall-like weather for the East Coast and toward the Ohio Valley, the
threat of a hurricane continues to be looming along the western to central
Gulf Coast.  Tropical Storm Francine continues to churn and move
northeastward across the western Gulf of Mexico not too far from
northeastern Mexico and the southern tip of Texas.  Although Francine has
not intensified as quickly as expected since yesterday afternoon, the
tropical storm is forecast to gain strength as it moves over very warm
waters and reaches hurricane strength before making landfall on the Louisiana 
coast on Wednesday.  This will bring an increasing threat of life-threatening
storm surge, hurricane-fore winds, and considerable flash flooding during
the latter half of Wednesday for the Louisiana coast especially near and
to the east of where the eye of Francine makes landfall.  Francine is then
forecast to interact with a coastal front as it tracks more toward the
north further up the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday and quickly
weakens.  Francine's interaction with the front and an associated
upper-level jet stream will also result in its gradual lost of tropical
characteristic as it moves farther inland.  The heavy rainfall associated
with Francine will then shift farther away from Francine's center, with
the threat of flash flooding focusing farther north up the Mid-Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.  Farther east from the central Gulf
Coast into the western Florida Panhandle, strong to severe thunderstorms
capable of containing intense rainfall rates can be expected to develop on
Wednesday ahead of a warm front and forming cold front.  Rainfall amounts
of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches are expected across
much of central to eastern half of Louisiana and up into Mississippi
through Thursday.  Residents are reminded to remain weather-ready and
never drive across flooded roadways.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system approaching the Pacific Northwest will
bring a round of rainfall farther inland through tonight.  This system
will then bring a round of moderate to heavy rain with high-elevation snow
for the northern Rockies late Wednesday into Thursday night as a deep
upper-level low brings a surge of colder air across the region. A few
inches of rainfall throughout northwest Montana could lead to an increased
risk of flash flooding later on Wednesday, which has prompted a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall. This storm system will also
produce gusty winds throughout the Intermountain West and lead to fire
weather concerns. Specifically, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Critical Fire Weather area for much of Nevada and western Utah. Current
and continued wildfire activity over the Great Basin will further add to
the smokey skies noticeable throughout the northern Plains, Midwest, and
parts of the Ohio/Tennessee valleys. An elevated fire danger is forecast
for portions of the High Plains Wednesday night/early Thursday.

High temperatures will remain above average average and into potentially
dangerous levels across parts of southern California and the Southwest
today before a quick cooldown commences by midweek. Meanwhile, upper
ridging in the north-central U.S. is expected to produce more summer-like
afternoon temperatures into the upper 80s and low 90s as far north as the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Thursday. These temperatures equate
to around 10 to 20 degrees above average, but are not expected to break
many daily records.

Kong/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php