Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 27 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 29 2025

...There are Heat Advisories across much of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
Middle /Lower Mississippi Valley...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and Great Lakes on Friday and the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains on Saturday...

Upper-level ridging weakens from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast on
Friday, resulting in a reduced area of Heat Advisories over the east. The
most extreme heat is expected to subside to temperatures more typical of
late June by Friday night and remain so throughout this upcoming weekend.
For Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s are
expected across the region. This heat level can be dangerous to anyone
without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration, especially those
engaging in lengthy outdoor activities. Heat-related illnesses increase
significantly during extreme heat. Wear lightweight and loose-fitting
clothing. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke.

Additionally, a wave of low pressure over the Upper Midwest on Friday will
move eastward to the Northeast Coast by Sunday morning. On Friday, a
second wave moves from the Northern High Plains to the Upper Mississippi
Valley by Sunday. With the Northern High Plains low, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the associated front over
parts of the Northern/Central Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there will be an increased threat of
severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two inches
or greater over the area.

In addition, the wave of low pressure over part of the Great Lakes will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe over parts of the Great Lakes through
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Another area of showers and thunderstorms will develop heavy rain over
parts of the Central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic through
Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop on Friday over parts of
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, the Central Gulf Coast, and the Southeast.

On Saturday, a front moving across the Northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains from
Saturday through Sunday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

Furthermore, on Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes to the Northeast as a front moves across
the area. Furthermore, from the Ohio Valley southward to the Gulf Coast,
daytime heating and ample moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms
over the region.

Meanwhile, upper-level impulses will produce light rain from Friday to
Saturday evening along the U.S./Canadian border from Washington State to
Montana.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php