Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 13 2019 - 12Z Mon Jul 15 2019
...Tropical Storm Barry is expected to make landfall along the
south-central Louisiana coast as a hurricane later today and cause
significant flooding from very heavy rain and storm surge...
Tropical Storm Barry, currently located just south of the Louisiana coast,
is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane, turn slowly northward, and make
landfall later today. High winds and dangerous storm surge are likely,
along with widespread flash flooding and river flooding. As Barry will be
slow-moving, total rainfall amounts are forecast to be 10 to 20 inches
over south-central and southeastern Louisiana and southwestern
Mississippi, with isolated amounts over 25 inches. Over the remainder of
the Lower Mississippi Valley, rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with
isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. Thus, a High Risk of flash flooding
is in place for eastern Louisiana and far southwestern Mississippi today,
and a Moderate Risk is outlooked tomorrow for much of the Lower
Mississippi Valley as heavy rainfall from Barry spreads northward.
Additionally, a few brief tornadoes are possible within outer bands of
Barry, so a Slight Risk of severe weather is in place today for the
Central Gulf Coast.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are forecast for the north-central tier of the
contiguous U.S. near a slow-moving frontal boundary. Severe thunderstorms
are expected in the northern High Plains, where Slight Risks of severe
weather have been outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center on both
Saturday and Sunday. Slight Risks of flash flooding and severe weather are
both in place for the Midwest on Sunday. Some scattered thunderstorms are
also possible ahead of the front farther east, for the Lower Great Lakes
region and Northeast on Saturday evening and into the Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday. Gulf moisture flowing into the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and
Carolinas to the south of another front will lead to scattered
thunderstorms in those areas, which could cause heavy rainfall.
Additionally, afternoon/evening scattered thunderstorms are possible from
the Great Basin and Southwest to the Rockies over the weekend.
Barry will keep high temperatures much cooler than average for the Lower
Mississippi Valley, and the Pacific Northwest could see slightly cooler
than average temperatures this weekend as well. Elsewhere, temperatures
will be generally above average, and Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories are in effect for portions of Arizona and California.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php