Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 13 2019 - 12Z Fri Nov 15 2019

... Widespread record cold today across the eastern U.S. and down to the
Deep South will moderate on Thursday...

...Snows over the Great Lakes are expected to become more widespread later
today into Thursday...

...Persistent warm and dry weather over the West will continue to elevate
fire weather concerns for portions of southern California...

The arctic outbreak that has been gripping much of the central and eastern
U.S. will culminate this morning with more than a hundred locations
expected to tie or set new low temperature records. The intensity of this
arctic outbreak is comparable to the "Blue Norther" of 1911 in which much
of the Plains eastward to the East Coast saw record cold temperatures in
the teens and 20s shortly after record warm temperatures of near 80
degrees were observed on the same day! The expansive high pressure system
associated with the current arctic outbreak will begin to move east of New
England on Thursday. Temperatures will begin to recover during the day on
Thursday after one more morning of record cold temperatures for some
locations from the Mid-Atlantic coast to New England.

An upper-level disturbance rapidly moving across the northern Rockies ths
morning will spread rain and snow eastward from the northern Rockies
through the upper Midwest today.  The lake-effect snows currently across
the Great Lakes will become more widespread by tonight as the area of snow
from the upper Midwest arrives. The frontal system associated with this
disturbance is on the weak side, and the wet snow should move farther east
across the lower Great Lakes and northern New England by Thursday night. A
secondary cold front will then approach the upper Great Lakes Friday
morning, bringing a renewed round of snow into the region.

Farther to the south, an upper-level disturbance arriving from northern
Mexico will increase the chance of rain along the Gulf Coast as a coastal
front forms just offshore on Thursday.  The rain chances will then
increase across the Southeast Thursday night as a low pressure center is
forecast to form along the coastal front just to the south.

Over the Great Basin/Rockies region, warmer and drier conditions are
expected to prevail which will maintain an increased risk for the spread
of wildfires.

Kong


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php