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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0752Z Jul 13, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 13 2019 - 12Z Mon Jul 15 2019 ...Tropical Storm Barry is expected to make landfall along the south-central Louisiana coast as a hurricane later today and cause significant flooding from very heavy rain and storm surge... Tropical Storm Barry, currently located just south of the Louisiana coast, is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane, turn slowly northward, and make landfall later today. High winds and dangerous storm surge are likely, along with widespread flash flooding and river flooding. As Barry will be slow-moving, total rainfall amounts are forecast to be 10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi, with isolated amounts over 25 inches. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. Thus, a High Risk of flash flooding is in place for eastern Louisiana and far southwestern Mississippi today, and a Moderate Risk is outlooked tomorrow for much of the Lower Mississippi Valley as heavy rainfall from Barry spreads northward. Additionally, a few brief tornadoes are possible within outer bands of Barry, so a Slight Risk of severe weather is in place today for the Central Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are forecast for the north-central tier of the contiguous U.S. near a slow-moving frontal boundary. Severe thunderstorms are expected in the northern High Plains, where Slight Risks of severe weather have been outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center on both Saturday and Sunday. Slight Risks of flash flooding and severe weather are both in place for the Midwest on Sunday. Some scattered thunderstorms are also possible ahead of the front farther east, for the Lower Great Lakes region and Northeast on Saturday evening and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Gulf moisture flowing into the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Carolinas to the south of another front will lead to scattered thunderstorms in those areas, which could cause heavy rainfall. Additionally, afternoon/evening scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Great Basin and Southwest to the Rockies over the weekend. Barry will keep high temperatures much cooler than average for the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Pacific Northwest could see slightly cooler than average temperatures this weekend as well. Elsewhere, temperatures will be generally above average, and Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of Arizona and California. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php