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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z Feb 15, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 15 2025 - 12Z Mon Feb 17 2025 ...A life-threatening flash flooding event emerging over the lower to mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into parts of the Appalachians with severe thunderstorms across the Deep South... ...Widespread moderate to locally heavy snowfall along with increasing winds from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and New England this weekend with a swath of sleet/ice just to the south... ...Another surge of arctic air will spread southward across the northern U.S. this weekend into early next week with snow developing from the northern Rockies into the north-central Plains... ...Pacific system will bring renewed round of lower elevation coastal/valley rain and higher elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest by Sunday... As a low pressure system exits the western U.S. and moves into the central Plains early this morning, a high pressure system associated with a large pool of arctic air in Canada is poised to surge southward into the Plains. The interaction between the two systems will result in a rather large cyclone to develop and intensify as it tracks from southwest to northeast across the eastern half of the country through the next couple of days, where widespread impactful to locally life-threatening weather is expected in the path of this cyclone. Of immediate concern is a life-threatening flash flooding event currently developing from the lower to mid-Mississippi into the Tennessee Valleys, and gradually spreading into the Ohio Valley. The combination of favorably strong dynamics interacting with plentiful moisture along a warm front will contribute to widespread intense thunderstorms increasing in coverage across these areas through the day. Repeated rounds of intense storms will lead to rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour and totals of 3-6", with isolated amounts up to 8" as the storms move parallel to and back build along the front. The greatest risk for this intense rainfall prompting life-threatening flash flooding will be across portions of northwestern Tennessee and western Kentucky, where a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 4/4) is in effect. A broader Moderate Risk (level 3/4) covers portions of the Mid-South to Ohio Valley, with a Slight Risk (level 2/4) encompassing the general region east to the Appalachians. Still potentially significant, but more scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible in these areas. In addition to the flood risk, severe weather is also expected, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) issued by the Storm Prediction Center for portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. Supercell thunderstorms ahead of the front will be capable of all severe hazards today, including the risk for strong tornadoes. The progress of a potent cold front will speed up across the South into this evening, transitioning the threat to damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes, which may continue further east into the Southeast overnight Saturday. The system will continue eastward on Sunday, with a broad area of showers and thunderstorms spreading across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast producing moderate to locally heavy rainfall, with some isolated flash flooding possible in the southern Mid-Atlantic. To the north, a band of moderate to locally heavy snow is quickly expanding from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes today. Winter Weather Advisories are in place for totals generally in the 3-6" range. A wintry mix will be possible in the transition zone along the storm track through portions of the Midwest. As the storm intensifies, a more significant winter storm is becoming likely for upstate New York and northern New England late tonight into Sunday. Increasingly strong and gusty winds may also lead to periods of blowing snow and very difficult travel conditions as the intensifying cyclone passes through. Some moderate snow totals will also be possible further south across higher elevations of the Appalachians. By Monday morning, the deep storm will begin to move east of New England with much of the rain moved off the East Coast and the snow tapering off in New England. However, blusterly northwesterly winds will usher much colder air into the eastern U.S. with re-newed rounds of lake-effect snows downwind from the Great Lakes. Daytime high temperatures will be above average and rather mild for regions ahead of the storm system from the central to eastern U.S. this weekend. Forecast highs in the 50s to 70s are expected from the Ohio Valley southward to the lower Mississippi Valley/Texas/Gulf Coast for today. By Sunday, much warmer temperatures are forecast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as temperatures reach into the 50s and 60s here as well, with 60s and 70s in the Southeast ahead of the front. Arctic air from Canada will then spread southward behind the front, bringing well below average, bitterly cold temperatures to areas of the northern and central Plains beginning today, with highs in the single digits and teens for many locations. Some highs may not even reach above zero by Sunday. By Monday morning, -30 degrees or colder temperatures are possible near the Canadian border of the High Plains. Blustery winds will lead to wind chills well below zero, particularly across the northern Plains. These colder temperatures will expand into the Mississippi Valley and southern Plains by Sunday with highs dropping into the 30s and 40s for most locations. Back to the West, an upper-level trough/Pacific storm system will bring a renewed round of precipitation to the Pacific Northwest beginning late Saturday which will spread inland across the northern Great Basin/Rockies into Sunday. This will include periods of moderate rainfall for coastal locations, a mix of rain and snow for interior valleys, and moderate to locally heavy snow accumulations for higher mountain elevations, particularly across the Cascades and northern Rockies. By Sunday night into Monday morning, moisture from the Pacific system will begin to interact with a stationary arctic front to expand a swath of accumulating snowfall from the northern Rockies toward and into the northern Plains. Kong/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php