Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 03 2022 - 12Z Wed Oct 05 2022

...Rainy, breezy, and cool conditions continue for the Mid-Atlantic as
storm system churns just offshore...

...Shower and thunderstorm chances remain for the Four Corners region...

...Above average temperatures forecast for the Plains and Midwest as well
as the Great Basin and West Coast...

A low pressure system located off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic as well as
an upper-level low aloft will remain relatively stationary over the next
couple of days, with the rainy and breezy conditions seen over the weekend
continuing into the start of the work week. The heaviest rainfall will be
concentrated around the Chesapeake Bay east over the Delmarva Peninsula,
with totals over the next couple of days generally around 1-2 inches, and
locally higher totals of 3+ inches possible. Winds are expected to calm a
bit compared to the over the weekend but still remain breezy, especially
near the coast, and coastal flooding will also remain a concern.
Temperatures will be cool across the Mid-Atlantic as the widespread rain
and clouds continue, and more generally across the East as high pressure
remains in place to the north and west and cooler air pushes southward on
the back side of the system. In fact, there are Freeze Warnings and Frost
Advisories across much of the Interior Northeast for this morning as lows
dip into the upper 20s to mid-30s. Widespread chilly morning lows are
forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday morning as well, with 30s again for the
Interior Northeast and 40s as far south as the Tennessee Valley and the
Carolinas. Highs Monday will range from the mid-50s to low 60s in the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, low to upper 60s for the Carolinas, and
mid-70s to low 80s for the Southeast and Florida. Highs will warm a bit
into the mid-60s for the Interior Northeast Tuesday but remain cool and in
the mid-50s for the Mid-Atlantic.

Meanwhile, a second upper-level low over the Northern Rockies will slowly
drift to the Northern Plains by Tuesday as a frontal boundary moves to the
southeast across the Rockies and Great Basin. Anomalously high moisture
and the upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the eastern Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern
Rockies both Monday and Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall totals of 1-2
inches are possible, and may lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding, particularly around any terrain sensitive areas such as slot
canyons, dry washes, and burn scars.

High temperatures will be above average for much of the Plains and Midwest
as upper-level ridging remains in place Monday. Forecast highs range from
the 70s in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest into the 80s for the
Central and Southern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an
Elevated Risk of fire weather from the Central Plains northeast into the
Mid-Missouri Valley where the warm temperatures will coincide with low
relative humidity, higher winds, and dry vegetation. A cold front will
move slowly to the southeast across the Northern and Central Plains Monday
into Tuesday, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will cool off a bit behind the front on Tuesday, with upper
60s to low 70s expected. Highs will also be above average for much of the
Great Basin and West Coast as upper-level ridging builds in over the
region. Forecast temperatures range from the upper 70s to low 80s for the
Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, the mid to upper 80s for the central
California Valleys, and 90s to low 100s for the Desert Southwest.

Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php