Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018
Valid 00Z Tue Jul 17 2018 - 00Z Thu Jul 19 2018
...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across parts of the
Northeast, the Deep South, and the Plains...
...Monsoonal moisture to continue across the Southwest with heavy to
excessive rainfall possible
...Well above normal temperatures to continue through Tuesday across parts
of the Western US...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of a frontal
boundary as it shifts eastward from the Ohio Valley into the Eastern U.S.
by tomorrow. Some of these storms may be capable of producing severe
weather and/or heavy to excessive rainfall, particularly across portions
of the northeast and the Deep South. SPC has highlighted portions of the
northeast within a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms, while
WPC has much of the area along the front from the Northeast to the Deep
South within a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall. Out west,
moisture associated with upper level energy moving through the northern
Rockies this evening into the northern Plains tomorrow will interact with
a surface boundary draped across the high Plains to produce showers and
thunderstorms from the northern High Plains to the central Plains. Again,
both SPC and WPC have marginal to slight risks for this region for severe
weather and flash flooding, respectively, this evening as well as on
Tuesday. In the Southwest, expect monsoonal moisture to continue through
the short range period resulting in mainly diurnally driven showers and
storms, with heavy to excessive rainfall possible. See the graphics and
discussions from these two centers for additional details on the severe
weather and heavy rainfall risks across the country.
Temperature wise, portions of the western U.S. will have to endure another
day of swealtering heat, with afternoon highs approaching or exceeding 100
degrees possible. This is as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal with
many locations from northern California to central Washington under heat
advisories or excessive heat warnings. Conditions are also dry out west
which increases fire weather concerns. A few red flag warnings are also in
effect across northeast Nevada.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php