Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 10 2021 - 12Z Mon Apr 12 2021

...Stormy and unsettled weather pattern continues over much of the East
this weekend; severe weather and localized flooding likely in parts the
Southeast today...

...Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather remain in place for the
Southwest and southern High Plains...

...Cooler than normal temperatures and mountain snow in the Northwest,
warmer than normal in the Southwest and Northeast...

Saturday's weather across the Lower 48 is headlined by a strengthening
area of low pressure tracking into the Midwest later in the day. Potent
thunderstorm activity across the Deep South this morning looks to continue
as it approaches the Southeast with some storms potentially becoming
severe. These storms also contain heavy rainfall with rain rates in excess
of 2 inches per hour possible. An Enhanced area for severe weather is in
place for parts of the central Gulf Coast along with a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall in the same region. Strong thunderstorms are also in
the forecast as far north as the Great Lakes and extending east to the
Mid-Atlantic coast through this evening as the storm's cold front marches
towards the East Coast. The Middle Mississippi River Valley will contend
with periods of rain on the backside of the storm, along with gusty winds
and abnormally cool temperatures. By Sunday, the storm fully occludes and
its severe and heavy rainfall threat will not be as notable as Saturday,
but lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected up and down the East
Coast and around the Great Lakes. Some thunderstorms could be severe and
contain excessive rainfall rates across the Florida Peninsula.

Regarding other weather hazards around the country, fire weather
conditions remain at Elevated to Critical levels in parts of the southern
High Plains and southern Rockies today. There is also an Elevated risk for
fire weather in central Florida. Another day of Elevated fire weather is
on tap for the southern High Plains and southern Rockies on Sunday with
locally Critical conditions expected.

In the Northwest, an upper level disturbance aiding in the formation of a
new storm system tracking through southern Canada will send a fresh
injection of below normal temperatures into the Northwest and Northern
Rockies this weekend. Some daily record cold lows may be broken in
portions of the Pacific Northwest Sunday morning. Temperatures will be
cold enough to promote periods of mountain snow from the Cascades and
Bitterroots to the Northern Rockies and Big Horns. Most snowfall
accumulations should remain below 6 inches, with the exceptions being in
the highest elevations of the Cascades and Northern Rockies where higher
amounts are possible. By Sunday, some light snow accumulations are
possible in the northern High Plains. The cold front responsible for the
cool down in the Northwest sweeps through the Great Plains on Sunday,
leading to a much cooler regime engulfing the Heartland by Monday as cold
Canadian high pressure builds in behind the front. Conversely, above
normal temperatures set up shop today along the East Coast, over the
eastern Great Lakes, and throughout the Desert Southwest today. A few
record high temps may be set today, especially in the eastern Great Lakes.
Abnormally mild conditions persist on Sunday over the Mid-Atlantic and
throughout the Southwest.

Mullinax

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php