Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 00Z Mon Dec 01 2025

...Heavy lake-effect snow will continue across the Great Lakes region into
early Saturday morning...

...Developing major winter storm over the northern Plains will impact the
Midwest and Great Lakes region this weekend with widespread heavy snowfall
and hazardous travel conditions...

...A wintry pattern will bring well below average, chilly temperatures to
much of the eastern and central U.S. heading into the weekend...

Locally heavy lake-effect snow is expected to continue tonight through
early Saturday morning across the Great Lakes region in the wake of a
slowly departing winter storm lifting through southeast Canada. The
heaviest additional accumulations should be downwind of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario, with portions of western New York in particular seeing an
additional 6 to 12 inches of snow. Locally gusty winds and poor visibility
will continue to make for difficult travel conditions, but the lake-effect
snow should gradually taper down by early Saturday as cold high pressure
moves overhead.

Meanwhile, a new major winter storm is already organizing across the
northern Plains as energy ejecting out of the northern Rockies focuses
cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies. This low center will gradually
strengthen tonight across the central Plains and then advance into the
middle Mississippi Valley by late Saturday. From there, this storm system
is expected to deepen further and track up across the Lower Great Lakes
region through Sunday. The result is expected to be an expansive swath of
heavy snow which will initially track across Montana and the Dakotas
through this evening, but then become more focused across the Midwest
tonight and Saturday. A rather widespread axis of 6 to 12 inches of
snowfall can be expected for the Midwest, with the heaviest amounts
generally over portions of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin where as much as
12 to 15+ inches of snow can be expected. These snowfall totals may
locally approach a record-setting snowfall event for the month of November
for multiple major metropolitan areas.

Heavy snow will overspread much of Lower Michigan and adjacent areas of
the Lower Great Lakes region by Saturday night and continue into early
Sunday, with snow accumulations here of locally 6 to 12+ inches. As the
low center arrives and approaches the Northeast, some wintry precipitation
will also advance into some interior areas of New England as well and
there may be at least a few inches of snow accumulation here where
sufficient cold air will be in place. The end result of this multi-day
post-Thanksgiving major winter storm will be significant impacts to travel
both on the ground and through the air given expectations of heavy
snowfall rates, gusty winds and poor visibility.

Farther to the south on the warm side of this next storm system, moist
return flow from the Gulf of America will facilitate rounds of showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains eastward into the
northwest Gulf Coast region and areas of the Mid-South. Locally heavy
rainfall is expected across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana where areas of stronger thunderstorm activity are expected. A
few isolated instances of flash flooding and severe weather will be
possible across these areas.

Generally, a very wintry pattern has grip on the country, and therefore
many areas of the central and eastern U.S. this weekend will see
temperatures well below normal. Multiple surges of very cold air dropping
south from Canada will be reinforcing this, and especially in the wake of
this next winter storm that traverses the Midwest and Great Lakes. Much of
the mild weather will be confined to the Southwest U.S. where it will be
dry, although it will warm up across portions of the Southeast and
especially Florida by late in the weekend as warm southerly flow arrives
ahead of an approaching cold front associated with the Midwest and Great
Lakes winter storm low track.

Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php