Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 12Z Thu May 01 2025 - 12Z Sat May 03 2025

...Showers and embedded severe thunderstorms shift east into the
Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys today as rain overspreads the
Great Lakes through tonight...

...Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms returns for the southern
Plains on Friday...

A low pressure system forming along a stalled frontal boundary across the
southern Plains will gradually intensify as it tracks northeastward across
the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Midwest today before reaching the Great
Lakes tonight.  The forward motion of the low pressure system will
effectively end the heavy rainfall and severe weather threats across the
south-central U.S. for the past couple of days.  On the other side of the
system however, showers and embedded severe thunderstorms will increase
and expand across Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys today. 
Damaging winds, hail, and an isolated tornado are the primary concerns
from any severe storms.  Farther north, rain with embedded thunderstorms
will overspread the central and lower Great Lakes today and into this
evening as the low approaches.  Colder air filtering in behind a secondary
cold front may change the rain to wet snow flakes near the Canadian border
of Minnesota Friday morning before drier air behind the front gradually
tapers off the cold rain across the upper Midwest during the day on
Friday.  New England will see scattered showers and thuderstorms passing
through on Friday behind a warm front as afternoon temperatures soar well
into the 70s.  The rest of the East Coast will be very warm on Friday with
highs well into the 80s along with widely scattered thunderstorms.

From Friday night into Saturday morning, a low pressure wave is forecast
to develop on the secondary frontal boundary over the east-central U.S.
ahead of a deepening upper-level trough.  This will allow showers and
embedded thunderstorms across the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday to
expand into the Ohio Valley and Mid-South Friday night, reaching into the
southern Appalachians, lower Great Lakes, and interior New England by
Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, a Pacific frontal system is bringing a round of wet snow and
lower-elevation rains and across the Colorado Rockies this morning. 
Additional disturbances associated with a digging trough will bring
scattered rain showers across the northern and central High Plains today. 
By early Friday morning, the associated cold front will dip south into the
southern High Plains and intersect moisture returning from the western
Gulf to provide increasing chances of strong to severe thunderstorms
extending east through the southern Plains by Friday afternoon.  A round
of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to develop across central
Texas by Friday evening into Saturday morning as the front dips further
south into Texas.

Along the West Coast, chance of rain will gradually increase Friday night
into Saturday morning as the next front from the Pacific arrives. 
Scattered areas of rain will push farther inland by Saturday morning as a
low pressure system begins to develop over the Great Basin.  Overall, a
warming trend is expected for much of the western U.S. before clouds and
rain arrive Friday night along the Pacific coast.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php