Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1244 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 26 2025 - 00Z Fri Nov 28 2025

...Rain changing to locally heavy snow under blustery and windy conditions
expected to spread from west to east across the northern tier states for
the next couple of days...

...Severe weather with possible localized flash flooding threats moving
through the Deep South early today before reaching the interior Southeast
tonight...

...Well above average temperatures across much of the central/eastern U.S.
will give way to much colder and more windy conditions heading into
Thanksgiving Day...

The deepening upper-level trough continues to push the surface low
eastward from the Northern Plains. As the moisture interact with the
colder polar air, chances for a transition from rain to a wintry mix
increases, especially over higher terrain. Therefore, moderate to heavy
snow is possible over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today into
Tuesday, as well as stronger gusty winds. The system is expected to
strengthen and expand in size as it begins to interact with another
frontal system and will gradually push eastward by Wednesday. This will
bring more snow chances for Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on
Wednesday. Snowfall amounts will progressively increase from west to east
across the northern Plains with highest totals of over a foot likely
downwind from the Snow Belt of Lake Superior. Otherwise, expect chances
for rain and possible embedded thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest and
other parts of the Great lakes ahead of the cold front through Wednesday
night.

A frontal system continues to move southeastward towards the Deep
South/Gulf Coast region. Moisture from the Gulf continues to pull
northward, which in combination with the cold front, brings higher chances
for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms today into Wednesday. With warming
surface temperatures, sufficient amount of low-level shear, and ongoing
convection, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) for severe thunderstorms through tonight for east-central Mississippi
across central Alabama. As the system advances toward the East Coast, a
period of enhanced rainfall can be expected to move through the central
Appalachians later today followed by the interior Mid-Atlantic this
evening.  The rain will then move across New England through tonight.
Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the remainder
of the East Coast and the Southeast through Wednesday afternoon associated
with the trailing cold front.  By Thanksgiving morning, the cold front
will move off coast, bringing some drier conditions over Central and
Eastern U.S.

Much of the central and eastern U.S. will be warmer than normal today
before the arrival of the polar air mass. Meanwhile, the western U.S. will
generally be milder than normal following a brief cool down across the
Northwest. Thursday will see a more notable departure from normal over the
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, where temperatures will drop 5-15 degrees
below normal.

Moisture from the next system is scheduled to reach the Pacific Northwest
today with a good dose of rain into tonight for the lower elevations,
while snow will engulf the Cascades, then reaching into the northern
Rockies overnight into Wednesday morning.  Another system in its wake will
begin to spread rain from northern Oregon on Wednesday and into much of
Oregon by Thanksgiving morning with wet snow along the Cascades.

Oudit/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php