Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
144 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 19 2025 - 00Z Fri Nov 21 2025

...Scattered thunderstorms with intense rainfall across the Lower Colorado
Valley today will linger but reduce in coverage tomorrow (Wednesday)..

...Risk of showers and thunderstorms capable of scattered incidents of
flash flooding expands into the Southern Plains Wednesday night through
Friday...

...Well above average warmth for the South from the Plains today through
the Southeast Thursday with a few records possible...

...Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the southern Utah Mountains and
Sierra Nevada Mountains...

The slow moving closed low affecting southern California will persist with
very slow drift eastward finally lifting out of Northwest Mexico on
Thursday into Friday.  This low and associated cold front have been
tapping increased moisture off the sub-tropical East Pacific drawing it
northward into Arizona and southern Nevada helping to fuel thunderstorms
capable of inducing intense rain-rates and localized flash flooding
conditions.  As such, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2 of 4)
and Flood Watch remain in place for the remainder of today into tomorrow
morning for much of western of Arizona and adjacent Nevada/E California. 
Colder air at elevation across the Sierra Nevada and southern Utah Ranges
will also tap the increased moisture and produce moderate to heavy snow
fall for the remainder of the evening into the overnight period. 
Additional 3-6" totals are probable with isolated higher amounts in the
highest peaks of the Sierra Nevada Range.   The stubborn low will continue
to slog eastward but with weakening winds and moisture availability, the
overall coverage for excessive rainfall will reduce toward a more isolated
nature, though flash flooding remains possible, a Marginal Risk (1 of 4)
covers much of southern Arizona into Southwest NM. 

By Thursday, another shot of strong Pacific energy will near the
Northwest, though much will lift northward into British Columbia, the
southern edge of the cold front and some upper-level jet energy will dig
southward helping to kick the stubborn wave into toward the Southern
Plains, while the return of southerly low level flow will bring back
another shot of light rain and snow for Oregon/Northern California before
developing another surface low rounding SW California for additional
moderate rainfall risk on late Thursday to Friday morning...another
Marginal Risk will be in place for flooding potential given high runoff
due to saturated soils.  

Elsewhere, a weak surface low through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley
will slide eastward into the Ohio Valley today with the potential for
isolated severe weather, including hail, winds and an isolated possible
tornado.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted portions of S
IL, S IND and W KY/NW TN with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).  By early
morning the lingering showers will cross the Central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic providing some rainfall before clearing by evening Thursday.

In the wake of the weak wave and due to the approach of the Southwest
closed low, strong southerly winds will bring enhanced moisture and warmer
temperatures off the Gulf of Mexico.  Temperatures will reach of the upper
70s and 80s across the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley
today with a scattering of potential record high and overnight warm lows. 
The warmth will expand eastward into the Deep South Thursday and toward
the Southeast by Thursday with similar 10-20 degree above normal temps and
scattered potential records. 

However, the high moisture/temperatures will aid thunderstorm activity on
Thursday into Friday across the Southern Plains.  The slow moving
upper-level wave will also allow for slower moving thunderstorms capable
of intense rainfall rates and scattered incidents of flash flooding across
portions of Texas.  Wednesday, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall will
be in place from the Pecos River Valley through northern Texas/Southern
Oklahoma; by Thursday this expands to a Slight Risk to reach SW Missouri,
Arkansas back through the Hill Country of Texas.  A Flood Watch is already
in place for portions of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau in Texas. 

Gallina


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php