Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 00Z Wed Nov 26 2025

...Flash flood and severe weather threat across the southern Plains today
will gradually shift east to reach the Mid-South Monday night...

...A stretch of potentially impactful winter weather expected from the
northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes Monday-Tuesday...

...Well above average temperatures continue for much of the
central/eastern U.S.; cold front to bring chillier, blustery conditions to
portions of the northern/central Plains Tuesday....

A deep upper low and accompanying surface frontal system has emerged onto
the southern Plains from the Southwest today (Sunday). Moist Gulf return
flow and strong winds aloft will support the development of robust
thunderstorms along the eastward moving cold front this afternoon and into
the overnight hours capable of both heavy downpours and severe weather.
There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) from the Red
River Valley southwest through the Texas Hill Country. Numerous storms
moving along the cold front are expected to organize into an eastward
progressing line producing heavy rainfall which could lead to scattered to
potentially numerous instances of flash flooding. Sensitive areas of the
Texas Hill Country which have seen heavy rains recently have the greatest
chance of seeing some flash flooding. In addition, the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) across
west Texas mainly for the threat of some large hail. The storms are
expected to remain ongoing along the cold front as it presses east Monday
stretching from the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley west through the
ArkLaTex and into northern/eastern Texas. Another Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in effect from the Mid-South southwest to north Texas where
the greatest threat for more scattered instances of flash flooding is
expected given a continued organized cluster of numerous heavy rain
producing storms. The SPC has also included another Slight Risk of severe
weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley west through east Texas as
continued strong deep-layer shear and increasing low-level shear will
bring the threat of both large hail/damaging winds and a few tornadoes
with storms developing ahead of the cold front. The system will continue
eastward into the Southeast on Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall
possible and the potential for at least a few isolated instances of flash
flooding, especially across the Tennessee Valley into the southern
Appalachians. To the north, this system is forecast to bring more moderate
showers across the central Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley through the
day Monday, and from the Middle Mississippi Valley east through the Ohio
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic later Monday and through the day Tuesday.

An upper-wave has brought a lingering frontal system along the Pacific
Northwest eastward today spreading precipitation chances inland, with
lower elevation rain and higher elevation mountain snow. The system will
bring snow, heavy at times, to the northern Rockies later this evening and
through the day Monday. Then, as the system emerges onto the Plains, a
potentially impactful stretch of winter weather is expected along the
surface low track from the northern High Plains Monday afternoon east
through the northern Plains overnight Monday/early Tuesday and into the
Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday evening. Uncertainty remains particularly
with total amounts, but at least moderate accumulations of several inches
are looking increasingly likely from northeastern Montana eastward through
North Dakota and into northern Minnesota/Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan,
where snow will continue into Wednesday. A messier wintry mix is expected
to track generally along the I-90 corridor east through the Plains. To the
west, another Pacific system is expected to arrive in the Pacific
Northwest by later Tuesday, bringing another round of lower elevation rain
and mountain snow.

Well above average temperatures will continue over the next couple of days
for most of the eastern/central U.S. Forecast highs Monday/Tuesday range
from the 80s along the Gulf Coast, the 60s and 70s from the southern
Plains eastward through the Southeast, the 50s and 60s from the central
Plains east through the Middle Missouri/Ohio Valleys, and the 40s and 50s
across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a bit more
seasonable across New England, with highs in the 30s and 40s, and into the
Mid-Atlantic, with highs in the 40s and 50s. An eastward moving cold front
will also bring chillier, blustery conditions to the High Plains and
western portions of the northern/central Plains by Tuesday, as highs fall
into the 30s for many locations. Highs across the West will generally be
seasonable, especially as the Desert Southwest moderates following the
passage of the upper-low. Highs generally range from the 60s and 70s for
southern California and the Desert Southwest, the 50s and 60s northward
along the West Coast, and the 40s and 50s for the Interior West.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php