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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0806Z Nov 24, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025 ...Flash flood and severe weather threats will gradually move through the Arklatex region today, reaching into the Tennessee Valley and interior Deep South/Southeast on Tuesday... ...A stretch snow expected to begin near the Canadian border of Montana today into tonight, then across the northern Plains on Tuesday, and into the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning... ...Well above average temperatures continue for much of the central/eastern U.S. but turning blustery and much colder from from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Plains... A low pressure system developing over the south-central Plains will be the impetus for a round of heavy rain together with severe weather threats across the Mid-South through the next couple of days. Although the associated upper-level low has weakened since its journey through the Four Corners region yesterday, its interaction with moisture returning from the Gulf will support the development of robust thunderstorms with heavy downpours across the Arklatex region through today as a warm front pushes northward and is then lifted by a cold front arriving from the west. Sensitive areas of the Texas Hill Country which have seen heavy rains recently have the greatest chance of seeing some flash flooding. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) from eastern Texas across northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and into western Mississippi. The system will continue eastward on Tuesday, bringing heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from the Deep South to the interior Southeast but with a lesser threat of flash flooding and severe thunderstorms than across the Mid-South today. Meanwhile, the low pressure system will track northeast into the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday night. Many areas of the eastern U.S. from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic will receive rainfall from this system on Tuesday. From Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, rain will be spreading into New England while some scattered thunderstorms can be expected to develop up and down the remainder of the East Coast as a cold front approaches from the west. Meanwhile, the next frontal system reaching into the Pacific Northwest this morning will continue to push farther inland, bringing fairly widespread precipitation across the Pacific Northwest this morning, followed by high-elevation wet snow, heavy at times, across the northern Rockies together with blustery conditions. The associated upper trough is forecast to amplify and spawn a low pressure wave tracking eastward swiftly through the northern Plains Monday night and Tuesday. This clipper system is expected to bring an extended stretch of snow beginning near the Canadian border of Montana today into tonight, then across the northern Plains on Tuesday, and then into the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It appears that 3 to 6 inches of accumulation can be expected along this stretch of the northern Plains. From Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, this system is forecast to intensify and expand in size as it tracks across the upper Midwest reaching into the upper Great Lakes. The threat of high winds has increased across the northern Plains on Tuesday, with the threat expanding across the upper Midwest Wednesday morning. The blustery conditions will be in conjunction of the accumulating snow just to the northern of the clipper center. By later on Tuesday, another Pacific system is expected to arrive in the Pacific Northwest, bringing the next round of lower elevation rain and mountain snow. Well above average temperatures will continue over the next couple of days for most of the eastern/central U.S. Forecast highs Monday/Tuesday range from the 80s along the Gulf Coast, the 60s and 70s from the southern Plains eastward through the Southeast, the 50s and 60s from the central Plains east through the Middle Missouri/Ohio Valleys, and the 40s and 50s across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a bit more seasonable across New England, with highs in the 30s and 40s, and into the Mid-Atlantic, with highs in the 40s and 50s. An eastward moving cold front will also bring blustery conditions and falling temperatures, as high temperatures dip into the 30s for many locations. Highs across the West will generally be seasonable, especially as the Desert Southwest moderates following the passage of the upper-low. Highs generally range from the 60s and 70s for southern California and the Desert Southwest, the 50s and 60s northward along the West Coast, and the 40s and 50s for the Interior West. Kong/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php