Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Dec 15 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 17 2025

...Heavy rain and strong winds impact the Northwest...

...Lake Effect snow wraps up this evening...

...Above average temperatures expand from West into Central U.S., while an
Arctic airmass grips the East through tonight...


Multiple rounds of shortwaves cycling beneath an upper level low stationed
over southeast Alaska will direct a continuous fetch of moisture into the
Northwest U.S. over the next few days. At the surface, a low pressure
system will bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rockies today. A slight risk (at least 15% chance) of excessive
rainfall is in effect for portions of western Washington and northwestern
Oregon, where instability, anomalous moisture and vulnerable soils from
recent heavy rain, will contribute to the flash flood threat. Strong winds
will also be an issue today as the system comes onshore. High wind
warnings and Wind advisories are in effect. Conditions should improve on
Tuesday as the cold front and most of the moisture push east. However,
another round of precipitation will arrive Tuesday night along with
another low pressure system. This second wave will bring heavy snow to the
higher elevations of the northern Cascades Tuesday night.

Lake effect snow should begin to wrap up across the Upper Great Lakes this
afternoon, and then the Lower Great Lakes this evening. Troughing over the
Eastern U.S. will contribute to below average temperatures for much of the
region through tonight, before beginning to moderate on Tuesday. Surface
high pressure over the Southeast will generate freezing temperatures
across the Gulf Coast. Freeze Warnings are in effect from southeastern
Texas to southern Georgia/northern Florida. Elsewhere, upper ridging in
the West will expand east over the coming days. Several temperature
records may be tied or broken across the West due to the unusually warm
conditions.


Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php