Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 19 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 21 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest on Wednesday and southern Texas on Thursday...

...Light snow over parts of the southern Utah Mountains, the Colorado
Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains...

On Wednesday, low pressure and the associated front over the Southwest
will move eastward to the Central/Southern Plains by Thursday, then
northeastward to southeastern Canada by Friday. The system will produce
heavy rain and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest and
rain/higher-elevation snow over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies
overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest through
Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars
being the most vulnerable. In addition, light snow will develop over parts
of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the southern Utah Mountains on
Wednesday. Furthermore, the system will produce rain with embedded
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on
Wednesday into Thursday.

Moreover, on Thursday, heavy rain and thunderstorms will develop over the
Southern Plains and spread into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains into the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most
vulnerable. Also on Thursday, rain will move into the Ohio Valley,
expanding into the Central Appalachian by Thursday evening and the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast overnight Thursday into Friday.

Additionally, on Wednesday, another front will approach the West Coast,
producing light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California by Wednesday afternoon, then expanding into Southern California
on Thursday. The low will then move to northwestern Mexico by Friday
morning. The storm will bring rain and the highest-elevation snow to the
Southwest Thursday into Friday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php