Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1023 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Dec 12 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 14 2025

...Drier weather for the Pacific Northwest but flooding effects to
continue...

...Record warmth across portions of the west, while arctic air surges
south into the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley through
Saturday...

...Stripe of accumulating snow to spread from Northern Plains to Middle
Mississippi Valley today, then from Midwest to Central Appalachians on
Saturday...

...Lake effect snow re-invigorates on Saturday and Sunday...


While, drier weather begins across the Pacific Northwest through the
upcoming weekend, the major to catastrophic flooding effects are likely to
continue for several days across portions of western Washington State and
northwestern Oregon.

The cessation of the Pacific Northwest heavy rains are in response to the
continued amplification of the large scale flow across North America,
characterized by a building mid-to-upper level ridge across the West and a
broad deep upper low over the middle to eastern portions of the U.S.  This
amplified pattern will produce big temperature contrasts from west to east
across the Lower 48 going into this weekend.  Much above average
temperatures are forecast from the West coast, through the Southwest,
Great Basin, Rockies and into the Southern Plains.  The exception
continues to be in the Central California Valley where low clouds and fog
are expected to remain stuck, keeping temperatures much cooler than
surrounding cloud free areas. Both record high afternoon temperatures and
record high morning low temperatures are possible in locations from the
Southwest, portions of southern and northern California and the Great
Basin Today and Saturday.

In contrast much colder temperatures are in store across the north central
to northeastern tier of the nation over the next few days.  The coldest
temperatures will be across the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley,
Mid-West region where arctic air will be pushing southeast for the end of
the week into this weekend.  Afternoon high temperatures will be 20 to 30
degrees below average today and Saturday over the Northern Plains,
spreading into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. A few record low
afternoon highs possible Saturday over the Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley region, with more widespread record low afternoon
temperatures possible Sunday across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions.

A large area of moderate to heavy snows will spread from the Northern
Plains, southeastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday,
associated with the aforementioned arctic air outbreak. This snow, driven
by a mid-level disturbance will continue east into the Mid-West and
Central Appalachians on Saturday.

In the lee of the Great Lakes, the ongoing active lake effect snows
showers, associated with the initial area of cold air to sweep over the
Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, will diminish today.  However, lake effect
snows will likely be re-invigorated late Saturday into Sunday as
northwesterly winds along with the upstream arctic airmass push back
across the Great Lakes.

Kebede/Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php