Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 20 2025 - 00Z Sat Nov 22 2025

...There is a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall for South-Central Texas
tonight through tomorrow...

...Yet another cut-off low pressure will move into Southern California and
bring locally heavy rainfall Thursday and Friday...

...Snowfall in the higher elevations of the Mountain West will occur in
the next few days...

...High temperatures will near or break daily records Thursday and Friday
across the Southeast...

The flash flooding threat has increased this afternoon across
South-Central Texas, including the city of Del Rio and the Edwards Plateau
region. A Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been prompted for the
end of today's day 1 period, 6z-12z primarily, and then continuing into
day 2 (tomorrow). The threat for a couple of  rounds of rainfall with high
rates makes it possible that 3-5 inches of rain could fall with some
locally heavier amounts certainly possible. Additionally, the terrain of
western Hill Country makes it extremely sensitive to water runoff despite
the soils being relatively dry going into the event. Follow local official
and keep informed with local office warnings.

Moreover, there will be a targeted flash flooding risk from eastern
Oklahoma into the Ozarks as a plume of moisture and embedded locally heavy
rainfall enters the area ahead of an approaching cold front. A Slight Risk
for Excessive Rainfall has been out-looked for the area on Thursday with
rainfall accumulations in the 1-3 inch range possible. Then, locally heavy
rainfall and chances for thunderstorms will shift eastward into the Ohio
Valley on Friday with the progression of the system.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a Marginal Risk for
some severe thunderstorm potential for this afternoon and Thursday from
Texas, Oklahoma, and the Ozarks. Deep layer shear and the potential for
surface instability to grow in the afternoon makes it possible for
super-cellular and multi-cell storm modes that could contain hazards of
severe criteria hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado along a
stationary boundary near the Red River Valley, per the SPC.

A soggy Southern California will continue tomorrow and Friday as a cold
front approaches the state tomorrow and eventually a weak area of low
pressure cuts off and occludes offshore the LA metro on Friday. The
incoming system looks to be much less prolific of a rainfall makers as
previous storms, but an inch or two of precipitation over saturated soils
may still warrant an isolated flash flood risk. Therefore, WPC has put the
area under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for tomorrow and Friday.

The current front moving though New Mexico will provide chances for
snowfall accumulation across the San Juans from northern New Mexico to
southern Colorado. The current forecast calls for around 4-8 inches
possible tonight in higher elevations with Winter Weather Advisories
active into tomorrow. Moreover, the cut-off low approaching Southern
California may bring 5-10 inches of snowfall in the San
Bernardino/Riverside County mountain ranges. A Winter Storm Watch is in
effect.

The Southeast will be saying what winter weather as mid-level ridging over
the area will warm temperatures into the upper 70s into the  80s.
Temperatures may break or near daily record high temperatures and be as
much as 10-15 degrees warmer than seasonal climatology. Generally sunny
conditions should also prevail.




Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php