Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 00Z Tue Nov 25 2025

...Flash flood threat will shift from the southern Plains Sunday towards
the ArkLaTex/Mid-South on Monday...

...Pacific system to bring lower elevation rain, locally heavy mountain
snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Sunday into Monday...

...One more day of record warmth for the Southeast today while above
average temperatures continue for much of the eastern/central U.S....

A deep upper-low/accompanying surface Pacific system has begun to move
eastward today (Saturday) over the Southwest/Four Corners region with
widespread showers/storms and mountain snow expected. These storms will
bring locally heavy downpours to the Arizona desert this afternoon with
some isolated flash flooding possible. The bulk of the precipitation will
spread into the central/southern Rockies during the overnight hours with
some locally heavy mountain snow possible for some of the mountain ranges
of central Colorado south through north-central New Mexico. Then, on
Sunday, the system will emerge onto the Plains with moist Gulf return flow
ahead of the system helping to fuel widespread showers and thunderstorms
along an eastward moving cold front. Repeated storms moving roughly
parallel to the boundary as well as moisture to fuel heavy downpours will
bring a risk for scattered flash flooding, with the greatest threat
highlighted by a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) stretching
from south-central Oklahoma southwest through the Texas hill Country.
Recent heavy rains through this region may also heighten the flood threat.
The system will continue eastward overnight Sunday and into the day Monday
with the cold front and likely still ongoing storms shifting towards the
ArkLaTex and the Mid-South. Another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is
in place for a similar set up of repeated, training storms bringing heavy
downpours and a flash flood threat. This system will also bring some
lighter rainfall into the central Plains Sunday and Missouri Valley by
Monday.

An upper-wave will bring a frontal system lingering along the Pacific
Northwest producing coastal precipiation today inland overnight and into
the day Sunday. Lower elevations will see light to moderate rainfall with
snow for the higher mountain elevations, possibly a bit heavy at times.
The precipitation will then spread into the northern Rockies later Sunday
night and then into the northern Plains during the day Monday and into
Monday night. Some locally heavy snowfall is likely for the northern
Rockies, and snow is also expected for portions of the northern Plains,
with at least light accumulations forecast. Elsewhere, a frontal system
passing from the Great Lakes to the interior Northeast Sunday into Monday
will bring a mix of rain and snow showers. Thunderstorms will continue
today for south Texas in vicinity of a stationary frontal boundary.

One more day of record warmth is expected across much of the Southeast
today as highs will reach into the low 80s for many locations.  A cold
front will bring temperatures down a few degrees on Sunday. However, this
region as well as much of the rest of the eastern/central U.S. will
continue to see above average, generally mild temperatures for late
November. Forecast highs through Monday generally range in the 60s and 70s
across the Southern Plains into the South; the 50s and 60s from the
central Plains east through the central Missouri/Ohio Valleys into the
Mid-Atlantic, and in the 40s and 50s across the northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. Conditions will be more seasonable across New England with
highs in the 30s and 40s. Portions of the West from the Great Basin
northward will also generally be above average through Sunday, with highs
in the 40s and 50s. The upper-low/storm system moving through the
Southwest/Four Corners will bring seasonably cool highs in the 60s to the
Desert Southwest with 40s and 50s into the Four Corners region. The system
moving into the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies will bring some cooler
temperatures mainly in the 40s by Monday. Conditions will be seasonable
along the West Coast, with 60s and 70s for southern California and 50s and
60s from northern California into the Pacific Northwest.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php