Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 16 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 18 2025

...Additional heavy rainfall likely in Southern California on Monday,
prompting concerns for additional flash flooding and a threat for rock
slides...

...Wintry mix across northern New York, Great Lakes, and interior New
England, with several inches of snow in the higher elevations possible....

...Well above-normal to record-breaking warmth across Texas into early
next week...

The occluded low pressure system is traversing eastward through the
Southwest tonight. The broad footprint of the storm will continue to bring
unsettled conditions and a mix of convective and stratiform rain from
California to Utah. Continued rainfall over saturated soils will create
low chances of seeing flooding, whether in the form of hydrologic or flash
flooding. Another potent upper low will swing into Southern California
from the Pacific on Monday and bring a renewed threat for flash flooding.
Impacts may include flash flooding, and perhaps some rock slides, in urban
areas, burn scars, coastal mountain ranges, and areas compromised by the
previous storm. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall in effect to account for the possible impacts. On
Tuesday, Arizona and Utah may see increased chances for heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding as the system moves eastward.

A deepening cyclone and attendant cold front moving through the East
tonight will set the stage for winter weather impacts, mostly confined to
the Great Lakes and New England. Maine may see the highest winter weather
impacts as snow fills in across the state tomorrow into Monday due to the
proximity of the low pressure system and cooling temperatures. Maine could
snowfall accumulations between 4-9 inches and gusty winds. Wrap around
moisture could bring enhanced snowfall to northeastern Great Lakes and to
the Adirondacks, Green, and White mountain ranges. Winter Weather
Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect across the region.

From snow to record warmth, Texas and the southern Plains will be rather
toasty for November as numerous cities may break daily record high
temperatures as the mercury rises into the upper 80s across major Texas
metros to the 90s across the Rio Grande. This is courtesy of strong
mid-level ridging over the area. The warm temperatures look to persist
into midweek and spread eastward towards the South towards the latter half
of the week.

The western storm system will continue to track towards the Plains by
early this week. Moisture will return across the central part of the
country and into the Mississippi Valley ahead of an advancing weak area of
low pressure. Thunderstorm chances will be first be possible across the
Mountain West today and Monday and then across the Plains and Mid-South
states.

Lastly, there will be some fire weather concerns across the southern
Mid-Atlantic region and the Ohio Valley today and perhaps into early work
week as breezy post-frontal winds and low relative humidities will be
conducive to fire spread.

Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php