Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 20 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California, the Central/Southern Plains, and the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Friday...

...Light snow over parts of the southern Utah Mountains, the Colorado
Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains...

On Thursday, low pressure and the associated front over the Southwest will
move eastward to the Tennessee Valley by Saturday. Moisture streaming
northward of the Gulf will produce heavy rain and thunderstorms over parts
of the South Plains on Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains
through Friday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible.  The
associated heavy rain will create numerous areas where flash flooding
events are possible, and many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

In addition, heavy rain and thunderstorms will impact parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley through Friday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
cause mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley will move
eastward to southeastern Canada. The system will produce light rain over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes through
late Thursday night.

Also, on Thursday, rain and embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts
of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Overnight Thursday, rain will expand
into the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Moreover, the rain will
move into parts of the Northeast on Friday, then wind down over the region
on Saturday.

Meanwhile, a front will move ashore over the West Coast, bringing light
rain to parts of the Pacific Northwest and California. The low will stream
moisture into Southern California, producing heavy rain on Thursday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of Southern California through Friday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars being the most
vulnerable.

As the storm moves inland, rain and the highest elevation snow will
develop over parts of the intermountain West. The associated area of low
pressure will then move to northwestern Mexico by Friday morning. The low
will continue to stream moisture into Southern California, producing heavy
rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of Southern California from Friday into Saturday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars being the
most vulnerable. Moreover, on Friday into Saturday, a weak system will
begin moving into the Pacific Northwest, producing light rain and
highest-elevation snow.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php