Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 02 2026 - 00Z Tue Aug 04 2026

...Extreme Fire Weather Risk expected today over the northern
Intermountain West...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to move through the
Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening...

...Dangerous heat to persist across much of the West over the next several
days..


Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected today over much of the
northern Intermountain West, particularly from northern Oregon into
central Washington. Strong winds, locally reaching 75 mph, will continue
throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. This, combined with
relative humidity values falling into the single digits due to downsloping
dry air from the mountains, will allow fires to ignite and spread rapidly.
Gusty conditions will then continue overnight, and relative humidity
values are not expected to recover, which will prolong the fire weather
risk into Sunday morning. Additional Critical Fire Weather risks are
expected across the Northern Rockies, particularly in parts of Idaho,
Montana, and Wyoming. A dry cold front is forecast to move through the
Northern Rockies on Sunday, where gusty post-frontal winds will exacerbate
the fire weather risk in the area to start the new work week.

A surface frontal system over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will bring
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms
will predominantly pose a risk of severe wind gusts, alongside an isolated
tornado threat. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
today. Plentiful moisture availability will be present, with precipitable
water values around 2 inches, supporting the potential for heavy rainfall
extending from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys south to the Gulf Coast.
Rainfall will be heavy enough to produce scattered flash flooding;
consequently, there is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
today across this region. As the system moves eastward, showers and
thunderstorms will shift onto the East Coast on Sunday, bringing heavy
rainfall and flash flooding to parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast,
and northern Florida. The boundary will then stall near the East Coast
into Monday, bringing another day of showers and thunderstorms to start
the new work week.

Meanwhile, across the Southwest and High Plains, extreme heat is set to
continue over the next several days. High temperatures of 110 to 120
degrees are forecast through early next week in the Southwest. Daytime
highs in the 90s and 100s are likely farther northeast into the
Intermountain West and High Plains, where record-breaking warm overnight
lows will limit relief. A stagnant upper-level ridge over the Southwest
will allow dangerous heat to persist well into the week.


Blanco-Alcala


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php