Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 13 2025 - 00Z Sat Nov 15 2025

...Temperatures moderate in the East; West and Central U.S. warm up...

...Snow expected to continue across Lower Great Lakes and interior
Northeast/New England...

...Strong cyclone developing off the West Coast will bring heavy rainfall,
heavy mountain snow and strong winds to portions of California beginning
tonight...

Much of the colder air associated with very deep upper-level trough across
the east has filled and or lifted away into the Maritime Atlantic. 
However, the longer wave remains over the Great Lakes providing some
ascent for a transient surface low and solid chance of light rain and
mixed snow across the Lower Great Lakes and into the Interior Northeast
today into tomorrow.  A more tempered cold push behind the front will
allow from some weaker Lake Effect plumes and lighter mountain snows into
Friday as well. 

While the northeast remains slightly below average, the stronger upstream
ridging is starting to take a stronger hold across the West into the
Central U.S. Much of the West and Central US will see high temperatures
from the 60s/70s today increase to the 70s for Thursday into Friday with
80s in the Southern Plains, running from 10-20 degrees above normal with
locations in the Northern Plains nearing 30 degrees above average by
Friday.    


While improving nearly all locations across the nation, California will
see conditions deteriorating starting tonight.  A highly amplified
upper-level trough will help to develop a strong surface cyclone well
offshore of northwest California/southwest Oregon and deeper sub-tropical
moisture/atmospheric River channel will be directed initially along the
northern California coast with increased moisture flux intersecting the
terrain.  There is a High Wind Warning for coastal regions from San
Francisco Bay north toward Cape Mendocino; sustained winds of 25-35 mph
may be accompanied by 60 mph gusts.

The cold front and moisture stream will then slide from Central California
on Thursday/Thursday night and eventually into Southern California Friday.
 From a hazards perspective, strong winds will accompany the stream of
moisture and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall has been
issued for Northwest California tonight.  This upgrades to a Slight Risk
(2 of 4) Thursday across San Francisco Bay as well as the low to middle
slopes of the Northern Sierra Nevada Range.  By Friday, the Slight Risk
will reach the Transverse Ranges of Southern California.

Initially, warm air will keep freezing levels high across much of the
terrain but by later Thursday, levels will drop but also will the focus of
the moisture plume.  As such, 4-8" are expected for portions of the
Northern Sierra Nevada Range through Friday and therefore a Winter Weather
Advisory is in place from middle of the range and north.  However, 6-12"
is expected above 9,000 ft while up to 18" is expected from central to
southern Sierra Nevada Range late Thursday and through Friday in the
highest peaks and along with the winds (30-40+ mph), a Winter Storm
Warning is in place from Central to Southern Sierra Range through Friday. 


Gallina


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php