Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025

...Flash flood and severe weather threats will gradually move through the
Arklatex region today, reaching into the Tennessee Valley and interior
Deep South/Southeast on Tuesday...

...A stretch snow expected to begin near the Canadian border of Montana
today into tonight, then across the northern Plains on Tuesday, and into
the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...

...Well above average temperatures continue for much of the
central/eastern U.S. but turning blustery and much colder from from the
Pacific Northwest to the Great Plains...

A low pressure system developing over the south-central Plains will be the
impetus for a round of heavy rain together with severe weather threats
across the Mid-South through the next couple of days.  Although the
associated upper-level low has weakened since its journey through the Four
Corners region yesterday, its interaction with moisture returning from the
Gulf will support the development of robust thunderstorms with heavy
downpours across the Arklatex region through today as a warm front pushes
northward and is then lifted by a cold front arriving from the west. 
Sensitive areas of the Texas Hill Country which have seen heavy rains
recently have the greatest chance of seeing some flash flooding.  In
addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a Slight Risk of
severe weather (level 2/5) from eastern Texas across northern Louisiana,
southern Arkansas and into western Mississippi.  The system will continue
eastward on Tuesday, bringing heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from
the Deep South to the interior Southeast but with a lesser threat of flash
flooding and severe thunderstorms than across the Mid-South today. 
Meanwhile, the low pressure system will track northeast into the lower
Great Lakes by Tuesday night.  Many areas of the eastern U.S. from the
Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic will receive rainfall from this system on
Tuesday.  From Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, rain will be
spreading into New England while some scattered thunderstorms can be
expected to develop up and down the remainder of the East Coast as a cold
front approaches from the west.

Meanwhile, the next frontal system reaching into the Pacific Northwest
this morning will continue to push farther inland, bringing fairly
widespread precipitation across the Pacific Northwest this morning,
followed by high-elevation wet snow, heavy at times, across the northern
Rockies together with blustery conditions.  The associated upper trough is
forecast to amplify and spawn a low pressure wave tracking eastward
swiftly through the northern Plains Monday night and Tuesday.  This
clipper system is expected to bring an extended stretch of snow beginning
near the Canadian border of Montana today into tonight, then across the
northern Plains on Tuesday, and then into the upper Great Lakes Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.  It appears that 3 to 6 inches of
accumulation can be expected along this stretch of the northern Plains. 
From Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, this system is forecast to
intensify and expand in size as it tracks across the upper Midwest
reaching into the upper Great Lakes.  The threat of high winds has
increased across the northern Plains on Tuesday, with the threat expanding
across the upper Midwest Wednesday morning.  The blustery conditions will
be in conjunction of the accumulating snow just to the northern of the
clipper center.

By later on Tuesday, another Pacific system is expected to arrive in the
Pacific Northwest, bringing the next round of lower elevation rain and
mountain snow.

Well above average temperatures will continue over the next couple of days
for most of the eastern/central U.S.  Forecast highs Monday/Tuesday range
from the 80s along the Gulf Coast, the 60s and 70s from the southern
Plains eastward through the Southeast, the 50s and 60s from the central
Plains east through the Middle Missouri/Ohio Valleys, and the 40s and 50s
across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.  Temperatures will be a bit more
seasonable across New England, with highs in the 30s and 40s, and into the
Mid-Atlantic, with highs in the 40s and 50s.  An eastward moving cold
front will also bring blustery conditions and falling temperatures, as
high temperatures dip into the 30s for many locations.   Highs across the
West will generally be seasonable, especially as the Desert Southwest
moderates following the passage of the upper-low.  Highs generally range
from the 60s and 70s for southern California and the Desert Southwest, the
50s and 60s northward along the West Coast, and the 40s and 50s for the
Interior West.

Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php