Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Dec 23 2025 - 00Z Thu Dec 25 2025

...High Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of southern California on
Wednesday/Wednesday night...

...Very heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada with falling snow levels...

...Widespread anomalous warmth across most of the country leading up to
Christmas...

The main thing making weather headlines leading up to Christmas Eve will
be the continued onslaught of heavy rain and heavy mountain snow from
atmospheric rivers across much of California. There is expected to be a
brief abatement in the precipitation intensity on Tuesday compared to
yesterday, with areas north of San Francisco mainly being impacted with
moderate rainfall and heaviest across the western slopes of the northern
Sierra Nevada. A much stronger storm system arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday with much of central and then southern California affected, with
a steady stream of deep moisture from the Pacific oriented directly
towards the terrain. Moisture anomalies are quite elevated with this
atmospheric river event, and this will likely lead to many of the heavily
populated areas of southern California getting a few inches of rainfall,
and perhaps six inches or more in the elevated terrain of the Transverse
Ranges. This will likely result in serious flooding and potential
mudslides, and the Weather Prediction Center has a High Risk of excessive
rainfall for Wednesday/Christmas Eve. Another area of concentrated
precipitation will be over the Sierra Nevada, with snow levels falling
compared to recent days. This will equate to several feet of snow, leading
to severe travel disruptions for the higher mountain passes, so having an
alternate travel plan is prudent should road closures happen.

Across the Eastern U.S., a low pressure system currently over the Midwest
states will quickly cross the Great Lakes and then reach the Northeast
U.S. by late Tuesday. A swath of snow and mixed wintry precipitation is
likely well ahead of the surface warm front across the northern
Mid-Atlantic into New England, with the heaviest snow likely to be across
Maine as the low develops further upon exiting the East Coast. A few
inches of accumulation will be possible across mainly inland portions of
the region, and winter weather advisories are now in effect for those
areas. Light showers are likely to the south from the Ohio Valley to the
central Mid-Atlantic through early Tuesday. Improving conditions arrive in
time for Christmas Eve.

Elsewhere across the country, expect mainly dry conditions from the
Rockies eastward to the Midwest states, and most of the southern Plains to
the Deep South, with a few isolated showers possible across the
south-central U.S. through mid-week. Temperatures will continue to be well
above normal for this time of year across most of the country, and highs
are expected to reach well into the 70s from Texas to South Carolina, and
near 80 degrees across southern Texas.  Widespread 50s and 60s are likely
from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley. Multiple record high
temperatures are within the realm of possibility. The only portions that
will closer to seasonal averages will be near the Canadian border and New
England.

Hamrick



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php