Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
128 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 00Z Thu Nov 27 2025

...A stretch snow expected to begin near the Canadian border of Montana
today into tonight, then across the northern Plains on Tuesday, and into
the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...

...Flash flood and severe weather threats will gradually move through the
Arklatex region today, reaching into the Tennessee Valley and interior
Deep South/Southeast on Tuesday...

...Well above average temperatures continue for much of the
central/eastern U.S. with colder temperatures over the Pacific Northwest
into the Great Plains...

An upper-level trough continues to build over the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains bringing chances for active weather across the
Intermountain West, Pacific Northwest, and part of the Rockies. Unsettled
weather will continue as the trough gradually dips into the Central Plains
by mid-week. As the moisture from the frontal system moves over higher
elevation, expect chances for freezing rain and moderate to heavy snow
across portions of the Northern Rockies as a result of colder temperatures
and orographic lift. As the trough amplifies and the strengthening low
moves eastward tonight, chances for snow increases over the Northern
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes going into Wednesday. By
early Tuesday morning, expect moments of moderate to heavy snow bands to
move through Northern Montana and parts of North Dakota, along with an
increase in gusty winds due pressure gradient tightening. Forecasted
snowfall amounts may vary, but expect between 4-8" across parts of the
Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest by late Tuesday. By
early Wednesday another frontal system and surge of moisture moves into
the Pacific Northwest, bringing chances for precipiation and
high-elevation snow.

The surface low pressure over the south-central Plains will slowly move
eastward, but will continue to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms
over the Mid-South and parts of the Tennessee Valley. In addition,
moisture from the Gulf will continue to push northward and the southerly
flow will funnel in warm and moist air into the frontal system, increasing
the chances for severe storms along the ArkLaTex area. With increase
instability, a modestly strong low-level jet, and ample low-level
moisture, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to highlight a Slight
Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) across areas of east Texas into
Mississippi through Tuesday, with a slight chance that this system may
produce strong gusty winds and hail. In addition, the Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall, with chances of
flooding over the ArkLaTex area. As the the low pressure system travels
northeast, expect chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms
stretching from the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Tuesday going into Wednesday.

As the ridge continues to build over Eastern U.S., max temperatures will
continue to trend 5-10 degrees above normal over much of the
Eastern/Central U.S. Temperatures will range between 70s and 80s near
South-central/Southeast U.S., near 50s and 60s over Central Plains and Mid
Ohio Valleys, and within the 40s to 50s near Upper-Midwest/Great Lakes.
Over parts of Western U.S. the cold front will bring colder temperatures,
with slightly below seasonal temperatures, especially over higher
elevations. Temperatures are forecasted to reach in the 30s across much of
the Rockies and Northern/Central Plains. Close to normal temperatures
along the Southwest and along the much of the West Coast, with
temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php