Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 18 2025 - 00Z Thu Mar 20 2025

...Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada through tonight with showers and
embedded thunderstorms across lower elevation of California...

...Widespread wet snow mixing with rain across the Great Basin reaching
the northern Rockies tonight...

...Heavy snow and increasing winds across northern and central Rockies
into the High Plains on Tuesday; light snow tonight near the Canadian
border of the northern tier states...

...Bursts of moderate to heavy snow with high winds expected to expand and
create blizzard conditions across the north-central U.S. into the upper
Midwest on Wednesday...

...Critical to extreme fire risk expected to expand across the central and
southern High Plains...

The recent hyperactive weather pattern across the U.S. will once again
make its presence known as yet another rapidly intensifying cyclone is
forecast to impact the mid-section of the country.  The ingredients
necessary for this cyclone continue to push farther inland across the West
Coast and into the Intermountain West as well as the Great Basin.  The
cyclone center itself is currently making landfall over northern
California.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with the system
will rotate across the lower elevation of California into this evening
while heavy snow overspreads the Sierra Nevada.  Farther inland,
widespread wet snow mixing with rain can be expected across the Great
Basin through tonight with the passage of a cold front.  The snow will
also reach the northern Rockies tonight and then expand into the central
Rockies Tuesday morning when a low pressure system begins to intensify,
expand, and track eastward into the central Plains by Tuesday evening. 
Winds will continue to strengthen across the west-central U.S. on Tuesday
as the cyclone consolidates.

Tuesday night to Wednesday will likely see the cyclone reaching peak
intensity while tracking relatively quickly across the north-central
Plains.  Blizzard conditions amid bursts of moderate to heavy snow appear
likely along with the possibility of thunder north of the center of the
cyclone track given the vigorous nature of the cyclone.  Some strong
thunderstorms can also be expected just south of the cyclone track across
the Midwest Wednesday afternoon into early evening.  It appears that a
lack of moisture will limit the development of strong thunderstorms across
the South ahead of a strong cold front.  However, the dry and windy
conditions will create widespread critical to extreme fire danger across
the central and southern High Plains through the next couple of days at
least.

Meanwhile, rain is taking its time to exit North Carolina and New England
as waves of low pressure develop and track northward along a slow-moving
front just off the East Coast.  The rain should taper off tonight for New
England and may end as wet snow flakes.  A period of light snow is also
passing near the Canadian border of the northern tier states as a clipper
low pressure system passes to the south.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php