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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2043Z Jun 18, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 442 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 00Z Wed Jun 19 2024 - 00Z Fri Jun 21 2024 ...Significant heavy rain/flash flooding threat with gusty winds well ahead of Potential T.C. One expected to impact southern Texas on Wednesday... ...Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall possible over portions of the Great Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley tonight... ...A heat wave will persist over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the Northeast through midweek... Potential T.C. One will likely strengthen while it slowly approaches Mexico's northeast coast tonight. This system carries with it; coastal flooding, wind impacts, and a significant plume of tropical moisture, which it is poised to transport into the central Gulf Coast down to northeastern Mexico over the next couple of days. There's a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding from the Louisiana-Texas coast down to just north of Corpus Christi, Texas where the heaviest axis of precipitation is likely to occur tonight. A broader Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall is also in place from the central Louisiana Gulf Coast down to southern Texas. PTC One is then forecast to strengthen into a Tropical Storm Wednesday afternoon before making landfall over northeastern Mexico that evening. Tropical moisture will likely continue to flow into southern Texas and the Rio Grande Valley where yet another Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. T.S. One will quickly weaken upon landfall Wednesday night before eventually diminishing Thursday evening. Additional heavy rainfall may certainly continue over the Rio Grande Valley and south Texas on Thursday before rainfall rates drop and conditions improve. All in all, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is currently forecast to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches from northeast Mexico to south Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. A line of thunderstorms will develop out ahead of a cold front sweeping across the Plains this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains and Southern High Plains where scattered to severe storms are expected to produce large hail and severe/damaging winds. A few tornadoes may also occur. Rainfall rates within some of these storms to support Excessive Rainfall, which is why there is currently a Slight Risk in effect from the Upper Midwest down to the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a heat wave continues to impact much of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this week. Widespread daily records are likely for afternoon high temperatures and warm overnight lows, with some monthly records possible. Heat index readings are expected to peak from 100 to 105 degrees in many locations. Those without access to reliable air conditioning are urged to find a way to cool down. Record warm overnight temperatures will prevent natural cooling and allow the heat danger to build over time indoors without air conditioning. Conditions improve slightly this weekend. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php