Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 26 2023 - 12Z Tue Mar 28 2023

...Heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding and severe weather
expected Sunday in the Southeast...

...Series of frontal systems to bring light to moderate precipitation
chances to the Midwest and Northeast...

...Snow chances linger over the Rockies as temperatures across the West
remain chilly; powerful storm system approaches the West Coast Monday...

Gulf moisture will continue to flow northward over a quasi-stationary
front draped across the Southeast helping to fuel widespread shower and
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. The anomalously high moisture in the low
levels will support moderate to strong CAPE values increasing the
potential for heavy rain rates of 1"+ per hour. In addition, the
quasi-stationary nature of the front will lead to the risk for repeated,
overlapping storm development and motions that will contribute to heavier
rainfall accumulations, with totals between 2-4", locally higher,
possible. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) has been issued
across portions of central Alabama and Georgia where the favorable
conditions for heavy rainfall are most likely to contribute to the risk
for scattered instances of flash flooding. The moderate to strong CAPE
values as well as strong winds aloft and strengthening low-level shear
will also lead to the potential some of these storms will be severe. The
Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather
(level 3/5) from east-central Louisiana northeast through central
Mississippi and Alabama where supercell thunderstorms may produce winds,
hail, and a few tornadoes, including the risk for a strong tornado or two.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday, focusing more
towards the Gulf Coast as the front begins to shift southward. The more
progressive motion of the front as well as weaker winds aloft will keep
the risk for flash flooding and severe weather lower than Sunday, with
only a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather across portions of southern
Alabama, Georgia,  and the South Carolina Low Country. High temperatures
will generally be above average across the South Sunday and Monday, with
mid-70s to low 80s forecast. Conditions will be a bit warmer south of the
quasi-stationary front and shower activity, with highs approaching 90 in
south Texas and Florida.

Snow will continue across portions of the Interior Northeast/New England
close to the Canadian border Sunday as a low pressure system departs the
East coast, with locally heavy snowfall totals between 4-8 inches for
northern Maine. A frontal system pushing eastward across the Midwest will
bring light showers to the Ohio Valley and a light wintry mix to portions
of the Lower Great Lakes Sunday. Upper level energy will help to better
organize an area of low pressure associated with the quasi-stationary
front to the south, with the system pushing northeastward into the
Mid-Atlantic.  Light to moderate rain showers are forecast for coastal
locations of the region Monday, with a wintry mix further northwest over
the Interior Northeast. Highs will generally be seasonable for New England
and the northern Mid-Atlantic, with 40s and 50s expected. The southern
Mid-Atlantic will be a bit above average Sunday as highs reach into the
low to mid-70s.

A frontal boundary lingering along the Northern/Central Rockies with
general upslope flow will keep snow chances up across the region the next
couple of days. Locally heavy snowfall will continue over higher
elevations in the Northern Rockies, with an additional 6-12" possible
Sunday. Higher elevations in the mountains of the Great Basin and Central
Rockies will also see additional snowfall accumulations. Snow chances have
come up Monday across portions of the Central High Plains as the front
pushes further into the region. Meanwhile, a powerful Pacific storm system
will begin to approach the West Coast on Monday. Moisture spreading inland
will significantly increase precipitation chances across northern
California and the Pacific Northwest. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall
will be possible along the coast, with locally heavy snow beginning for
the northern coastal Ranges of California and the southern half of the
Cascades. Heavy rain and snow will continue to overspread the region
Tuesday. Persistent mean troughing aloft will keep temperatures much below
average across the West. Highs will range from the 30s and 40s for the
Great Basin and Northern/Central Rockies, the 40s and 50s for the Pacific
Northwest/northern California and the Southern Rockies, and the upper 50s
to low 70s for southern California and the Desert Southwest. 

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php