Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Oct 06 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 06 2022 - 12Z Sat Oct 08 2022

...Temperatures plunging across the Eastern and Central U.S. as strong
cold front pushes southward...

...Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the Southern Rockies/High
Plains and the Southwest, with isolated instances of flash flooding
possible...

...Pleasant weather across much of the West through the end of the week...

Temperatures have begun plunging across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest as a potent cold front pushes southward, bringing unseasonably
frigid air behind it. Highs will be in the mid-40s to low-50s behind the
front on Thursday. Breezy conditions will follow with the passage of the
front and gusts may reach 20-30 miles per hour. Lake-effect showers are
also in the forecast for the Upper Great Lakes as a result of the cold,
northwest flow across the warmer lake water. Some wet snow may mix in for
higher elevations of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
Thursday night, though no accumulation is expected. Frigid morning lows
will follow Friday morning, with widespread temperatures below freezing
across the area, dipping as low as the upper teens for portions of North
Dakota. Freeze warnings are currently in effect for North Dakota and
portions of western South Dakota, with a Freeze Watch in place for most of
the rest of South Dakota. The chilly temperatures will spread further
south and east on Friday as the front progresses. Widespread highs
generally in the mid-50s to low 60s are forecast from the Lower Great
Lakes into the Midwest, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains. Highs
will remain even cooler to the north as a strong Canadian high presses
southward, with mid- to upper 40s expected for the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. More lows near freezing are possible Saturday morning for the Great
Lakes Region and Upper Mississippi Valley.

Temperatures will be at or above average ahead of the front, with highs in
the low 70s for the coastal Northeast, upper 70s to mid-80s for the
Southeast and Florida, and upper 80s to low 90s for the Southern Plains.
Some lingering drier air in the Southeast will lead to some chilly morning
lows Friday morning with temperatures dipping into the upper 40s to low
50s for the Carolinas south into Georgia and Alabama. Temperatures for
much of this area will begin to drop in future forecasts into the weekend
as the cold front presses on.

Further west, daily showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
Southern Rockies and High Plains as well as eastern portions of the
Southwest on the east side of a lingering upper-level low drifting over
the Southwest and on the north side of a stationary boundary along the
U.S./Mexico border. Anomalously high moisture that remains pooled across
the area will help enhance storm rainfall rates and totals, and isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible, particularly for areas of
sensitive terrain and across burn scars. High temperatures will remain
below normal with mid-60s to low 70s expected.

Pleasant conditions will persist across the rest of the West as an
upper-level ridge remains in place over the West Coast. High temperatures
will continue to be well-above average by about 10-20 degrees in the
Pacific Northwest, with highs forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s, and
even as high as 90 in the Rogue Valley of Oregon. Elsewhere, highs are
forecast in the 70s along the Pacific Coast, in the upper 70s to low 80s
for the Great Basin, in the low 90s for the central California valleys,
and in the mid-90s to 100 degrees in the Desert Southwest.

Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php