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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0742Z Oct 26, 2021)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 342 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 26 2021 - 12Z Thu Oct 28 2021 ...Nor'easter to generate heavy rain and strong winds across Northeast through Wednesday... ...Deep system responsible for heavy rain across California to emerge over the Plains today, potentially sparking severe weather over the Central/Southern Plains... ...Wet pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies through midweek... A pair of low pressure waves will consolidate into a single Nor'easter off of the New Jersey coast today. This system will batter much of the Northeast with high winds, scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall until Wednesday evening when the Nor'easter will move well enough offshore to end its impacts on the Northeast. Rainfall totals are expected to be between 1-2 inches with isolated pockets receiving more than 2 inches by Wednesday evening. Flash flooding is a concern for much of the Northeast, but especially for northern New Jersey into southern New England where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect today. The heavy rainfall can be treacherous as is, but the addition of high winds due to a tightening pressure gradient north of the system will mean compounding hazardous weather, particularly for travel. Seasonal temperatures will return to the East today as the associated cold front pushes offshore this morning. Highs will be well below average over the Central Appalachians and Ohio Valley today. The system responsible for producing heavy rain across California will deepen as it ejects out over the Central Plains today. Rain and scattered thunderstorms will proliferate along this system's surface fronts oriented meridionally across the Great Plains. Severe thunderstorm activity is likely to develop out ahead of what is expected to be a tight and well defined dew point gradient/dry line extending from northwestern Kansas through central Texas today. The main severe threat will come in the form of strong wind gusts and some large hail associated with bowing convective segments emanating from the dry line. There also exists the potential for embedded tornadoes within these linear convective systems. High temperatures will climb into the mid-80s to low-90s within the warm sector of the system across much of the Central/Southern Great Plains today before the arrival of the cold front. Rain and thunderstorms are forecasted to spread into the Mississippi Valley and Southeast through midweek. Rainfall totals will generally remain between 1-2 inches for these areas with locally higher amounts possible for parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley by Thursday. Meanwhile, a series of low pressure systems will continue this seasonal wet pattern for the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Low elevation rain and high elevation heavy snow will impact much of the coastal Pacific Northwest and Cascades respectfully. A few inches of rain are likely for the low elevations while 1-2 feet of snow is likely across much of the highest peaks of the northern Cascades. Lighter snow amounts are expected over much of the high Rocky Mountain peaks. High temperatures will drop significantly today as high pressure builds over the West on the backside of the severe weather system over the Plains. Highs are expected to drop down to 15-25 degrees below average for much of the Great Basin and California. Seasonal temperatures will return to the West on Wednesday. Kebede Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php