Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 12Z Wed May 14 2025 - 12Z Fri May 16 2025

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible from the Northern and
Central Plains to the Midwest...

...Dangerous heat in Texas through early next week...

...Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions in the Southwest...

A strong upper level trough will swing across the Central U.S. over the
next couple of days, resulting in a strengthening low pressure system at
the surface. The central low will initially strengthen over the Northern
and Central Plains today, then become occluded on Thursday while tracking
into the Upper Midwest. A warm front will lift north across the
South-Central U.S. while a dry line develops in the Southern Plains, and a
couple of cold fronts will push south and east across the Plains and
Mississippi Valley. This system will produce numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the North-Central U.S., and conditions will be
favorable for strong to severe thunderstorm development in the Northern
and Central Plains today and Midwest on Thursday. Potential severe storm
hazards may include large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. Strong
storms may also produce heavy rain that could lead to isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding.

On Friday, the surface low will linger over the Upper Midwest with
persistent showers throughout the day, while a weakening cold front brings
showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A secondary
cold front is expected to trigger a second wave of showers and
thunderstorms in the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys Friday afternoon and
evening, and there will be another chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms and isolated flash flooding. This front will also support
some isolated severe storm potential in the Ark-La-Tex region.

Elsewhere, precipitation chances will persist on the backside of the low
pressure system today through Friday morning, with wintry mixed
precipitation and snow possible in the higher elevations of the Northern
and Central Rockies. Meanwhile, a warm front lifting along the East Coast
will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley
today into Thursday. Precipitation should also return to the Pacific
Northwest late this week as a frontal system slowly approaches the coast.

Conditions across the Southern U.S. will remain mostly dry through the end
of the work week. Dangerously warm high temperatures are expected across
Texas each day through early next week. High temperatures are forecast to
reach 100-110 degrees in portions of Central and South Texas and well into
the 90s elsewhere in the state, which will be dangerous to anyone without
effective cooling and adequate hydration. Overnight lows will be
anomalously warm as well, only dropping down into the 70s, which will
limit overnight relief from the heat.

Warm and dry conditions will also contribute to Elevated to Critical fire
weather conditions in the Southwest today and Thursday. Areas west of the
dryline in the Southern Plains will see relative humidities drop to
critically low values in the single digits and teens, and strong gusty
winds will develop in the wake of deepening low pressure in the Plains.
These conditions will support rapid wildfire spread.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php