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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1920Z Jun 14, 2024)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 320 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 00Z Sat Jun 15 2024 - 00Z Mon Jun 17 2024 ...Scattered severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain possible across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the Central Plains through this evening... ...Severe weather and flash flood risks shift to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend... ...Above average summer heat continues across much of the Southern Tier before expanding into the Midwest by Sunday... A summer weather pattern ripe for mid-June is expected through this weekend across CONUS, with scattered areas at risk for strong thunderstorms and building heat across the southern and middle sections of the country. After a few days of drenching rain throughout the central and southern Florida Peninsula, lingering showers and storms could spawn scattered instances of renewed flooding across far southern Florida tonight before rain chances diminish this weekend. This same plume of tropical moisture is forecast to slide toward the central Gulf Coast on Sunday and could lead to areas of heavy rain throughout southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Meanwhile, a cold front progressing across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon has led to showers and thunderstorms that could contain intense rainfall rates and gusty winds. A few of these storms could turn severe through this evening as the cold front eventually pushes offshore by early Saturday. Following this cold front, a refreshingly dry airmass in place should lead to beautiful weather this Father's Day weekend throughout the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley. A developing storm system over the north-central U.S. will lead to active and stormy weather extending from the Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. The first round of showers and storms associated with a leading system is forecast to spark thunderstorm activity across the Central High Plains late this afternoon through the overnight period. A few storms could contain large hail, damaging wind gusts, and intense rainfall rates capable of leading to flash flooding. After weakening overnight, these showers could push into the Upper Midwest by Saturday, with redeveloping storms extending from the central Plains to the Middle Missouri Valley. Multiple rounds of heavy rain could lead to areas of flash flooding between eastern Nebraska and northern Wisconsin. Additionally, the trailing and stronger system organizing over the Northern Plains on Saturday will help produce strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Montana and North Dakota. By the end of the weekend a frontal boundary is expected to bisect the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, creating a focus for additional rounds of showers and storms. The other main weather story this weekend will be the simmering heat impacting areas from the Southwest to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Highs are forecast to reach the triple digits throughout much of the Desert Southwest, with upper 90s stretching from the Southeast to parts of the Southern Plains. Above average temperatures are also forecast across the central Great Basin and northern Plains ahead of a cold front, with well below average temperatures encompassing the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday, an upper level ridge is anticipated to begin building across the Eastern U.S., with anomalous heat starting in much of the Midwest, Central Plains, and Tennessee Valley. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s, with maximum heat indices near 105 degrees. When combined with warm overnight lows, major heat risk could affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Be sure to remain weather aware and follow proper heat safety! Snell Graphics available at