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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z May 28, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 Valid 12Z Sat May 28 2022 - 12Z Mon May 30 2022 ...There will be locally a threat of heavy rain and some strong thunderstorms across parts of the Northeast today... ...Much colder and unsettled weather will arrive across the Intermountain West this weekend which will include a threat of heavy snowfall for the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies... ...Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the weekend... ...Critical fire weather concerns continue across much of the Southwest and through the Southern Rockies... A cold front will be very slowly advancing toward the East Coast today and then offshore on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. However, multiple waves of low pressure will be impacting the Northeast today and there should be areas of showers thunderstorms impacting parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England which will result in some areas of locally heavy rainfall. An isolated threat of flash flooding will be possible and some of the thunderstorms may be strong and capable of producing gusty winds. Drier and more tranquil weather will follow on Sunday and linger through early next week. Meanwhile, a series of cold fronts and waves of low pressure will continue to move inland off the Pacific Ocean and will be traversing the Intermountain West through the weekend which will bring much colder temperatures and unsettled weather. This will especially be the case for the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Basin, and the northern Rockies where widespread shower activity and some locally heavy rainfall is expected. As an upper-level trough deepens over the West this weekend and early next week, the snow levels will be dropping, and rain is expected to change over to heavy snow for the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. In fact, some of the higher terrain of the Sawtooth, Absoroka, and Big Horn mountains will see locally significant snowfall. The heaviest amounts will likely be over the Absoroka range involving areas of southwest Montana where as much as 2 to 3 feet of snow appears likely. All of the rain and snow that does impact the West this weekend will be very beneficial given the widespread and long-term drought conditions that continue for many areas. Temperatures this weekend behind the frontal passages will be below normal, and some parts of northern Great Basin will likely see high temperatures as much as 15 to 25 degrees below normal by Sunday. Gradually the energy crossing the Intermountain West will also eject out across the northern Plains and the upper Midwest through the end of the weekend and into Monday, and this will yield a concern for severe weather. Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected, and some of the thunderstorms over the next couple of days will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. On Sunday and Sunday night, the severe weather threat will be more focused and concentrated from eastern Nebraska through southwest Minnesota and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this area under an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms which will include a concern for a few tornadoes. Ahead of the much colder weather across the West, hot and dry conditions will be expected across areas of the central and southern Plains where high temperatures will warm well into the 90s and will locally exceed 100 degrees today. Some of these temperatures will be as much as 20 to 25 degrees above average. The hot and dry weather will also be a key player in driving elevated to critical fire weather concerns. In fact, the wildfire danger will encompass a rather large area again with an emphasis on the southern Rockies and through much of the Southwest U.S. going through the weekend. Very low relative humidity and gusty winds will be in place and these conditions will be conducive for locally driving a high threat of wildfire activity. Orrison Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php