Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 18 2019 - 12Z Tue Aug 20 2019

...Scattered thunderstorms forecast for the Great Lakes southward into the
Middle Mississippi Valley today...

...Heavy rainfall and localized flooding expected for portions of
Florida...

...Potentially record-setting heat persists across much of the southern
tier and stretching into the East...

...Elevated fire conditions for portions of the West...

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast ahead of a cold front moving through
the Midwest today and toward the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on
Monday. Farther south, the front is expected to stall in the Central
Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. Some storms could be severe,
especially in the Great Lakes region today, where the Storm Prediction
Center has outlooked a Slight Risk of severe weather. Locally heavy
rainfall and isolated flash floods are also possible with these storms,
which will spread toward the Northeast on Monday.

A slow-moving frontal boundary will remain over the Southeast U.S. today,
with lower pressures at the surface. Gulf moisture flowing into the
vicinity of these features will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
over parts of northern Florida on Sunday and Monday, which has already
received lots of rain in recent days. Slight Risks of excessive
rainfall/flash flooding are in place for portions of the Florida panhandle
today and Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible for the
Central Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas.

Above average temperatures are forecast to be widespread for much of the
country, with potential for record highs to be set in the Southern Plains
on Sunday and into the Central High Plains on Monday. The heat also builds
in the eastern U.S. on Monday, and record highs could be set from the
Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Excessive Heat
Warnings and Watches are in place for the Southwest as well. Below average
temperatures are expected in the Northern Plains behind the cold front on
Sunday, moderating on Monday.

As low humidities combine with gusty winds in the West, portions of the
Great Basin and the Central/Northern Rockies are under Red Flag Warnings.
No notable precipitation is expected for the West, despite it being
typical monsoon season.


Tate


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php