Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 12 2026 - 00Z Fri Aug 14 2026

...Mid-summer heat persists from the Central Plains to the Southeast but
cooler temperatures soon for the Intermountain West and Northern Plains...

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall threats continue across the
Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians the next couple of
days...

The heat dome that has recently been over the Southwest is
migrating/building into the Mid-South and Southeast, setting the stage for
a long-duration heat wave. For the next couple of days, a wavy frontal
boundary from the High Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and
Mid-Atlantic will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms which could
be severe and/or promote flash flooding. The heat dome to the south will
favor drier conditions and hot temperatures nearing daily records for some
locations -- well into the 90s to the low 100s (southern Plains).
Dew points in the low to mid 70s will create heat index values of 105-110F
for many locations. To the north of the front, temperatures will be closer
to normal for mid-August into the 70s to mid 80s.

Over the West, a cooling trend is in store for much of the region starting
tomorrow when many areas will see below normal highs for the first time in
several days thanks to an expansive area of afternoon showers/storms. Some
storms could produce excessive rainfall that could cause local flash
flooding across the region, but especially in southeastern Arizona. High
temperatures in Montana near the Canadian border may stay in the 60s
(coolest since June). By Thursday, the cooler air will filter into more of
the region as the heat dome exits the West entirely. Areas from the
Rockies (and northern High Plains) to the West Coast will see temperatures
5-15F below normal which could be the coolest since late May or early
June. In addition, another day of scattered showers/storms are likely for
the Rockies/Great Basin/Southwest.

Fracasso

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php