Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on X
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0730Z May 14, 2025)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 330 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 12Z Wed May 14 2025 - 12Z Fri May 16 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible from the Northern and Central Plains to the Midwest... ...Dangerous heat in Texas through early next week... ...Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions in the Southwest... A strong upper level trough will swing across the Central U.S. over the next couple of days, resulting in a strengthening low pressure system at the surface. The central low will initially strengthen over the Northern and Central Plains today, then become occluded on Thursday while tracking into the Upper Midwest. A warm front will lift north across the South-Central U.S. while a dry line develops in the Southern Plains, and a couple of cold fronts will push south and east across the Plains and Mississippi Valley. This system will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across the North-Central U.S., and conditions will be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorm development in the Northern and Central Plains today and Midwest on Thursday. Potential severe storm hazards may include large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. Strong storms may also produce heavy rain that could lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. On Friday, the surface low will linger over the Upper Midwest with persistent showers throughout the day, while a weakening cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A secondary cold front is expected to trigger a second wave of showers and thunderstorms in the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys Friday afternoon and evening, and there will be another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and isolated flash flooding. This front will also support some isolated severe storm potential in the Ark-La-Tex region. Elsewhere, precipitation chances will persist on the backside of the low pressure system today through Friday morning, with wintry mixed precipitation and snow possible in the higher elevations of the Northern and Central Rockies. Meanwhile, a warm front lifting along the East Coast will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley today into Thursday. Precipitation should also return to the Pacific Northwest late this week as a frontal system slowly approaches the coast. Conditions across the Southern U.S. will remain mostly dry through the end of the work week. Dangerously warm high temperatures are expected across Texas each day through early next week. High temperatures are forecast to reach 100-110 degrees in portions of Central and South Texas and well into the 90s elsewhere in the state, which will be dangerous to anyone without effective cooling and adequate hydration. Overnight lows will be anomalously warm as well, only dropping down into the 70s, which will limit overnight relief from the heat. Warm and dry conditions will also contribute to Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions in the Southwest today and Thursday. Areas west of the dryline in the Southern Plains will see relative humidities drop to critically low values in the single digits and teens, and strong gusty winds will develop in the wake of deepening low pressure in the Plains. These conditions will support rapid wildfire spread. Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php