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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2006Z Oct 20, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 406 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Valid 00Z Mon Oct 21 2019 - 00Z Wed Oct 23 2019 ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with an embedded area of enhanced risk over parts of the Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley... ...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley... ...Critical fire weather across portions of the Southern High Plains and Southern California... A low pressure over the Northern Plains will deepen and move northeastward to the Canadian shore of Lake Superior by Tuesday evening. The associated front will move from Central/Southern Plains eastward to the Appalachians and the Eastern Gulf Coast by Tuesday. The system will produce rain over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday night into Monday morning. The rain moves into the Upper Great Lakes on Monday afternoon into Tuesday while lingering over the other parts of the Upper Midwest. On the northwest side if the precipitation shield, wet snow may develop overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Overnight Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front over parts of the Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Severe thunderstorms are possible over this area producing hazards from frequent lightening, strong gust of wind producing damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms may produce scattered area of flash flooding that will be mainly localized. On the backside of the storm, the system will produce higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain over the Northern Rockies through late Sunday night. Critical fire weather is in place across the Southern High Plains and Southern California. Gusty winds and low humidity will lead to a higher risk of wildfires and promote conditions for wildfires to spread. Red Flag Warnings are also in effect. Elsewhere, onshore moist flow off the Pacific will aid in producing rain and highest elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest and rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Northern Rockies from Sunday evening into Tuesday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php