Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 21 2019 - 00Z Wed Oct 23 2019

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with an embedded area of
enhanced risk over parts of the Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley...

...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Critical fire weather across portions of the Southern High Plains and
Southern California...
  
A low pressure over the Northern Plains will deepen and move northeastward
to the Canadian shore of Lake Superior by Tuesday evening.  The associated
front will move from Central/Southern Plains eastward to the Appalachians
and the Eastern Gulf Coast by Tuesday.  The system will produce rain over
parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley on Sunday night into Monday morning.  The rain moves into the Upper
Great Lakes on Monday afternoon into Tuesday while lingering over the
other parts of the Upper Midwest.  On the northwest side if the
precipitation shield, wet snow may develop overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning.  Overnight Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along
and ahead of the front over parts of the Southern Plains and the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.  Severe thunderstorms are possible over
this area producing hazards from frequent lightening, strong gust of wind
producing damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.  The heavy
rain associated with the thunderstorms may produce scattered area of flash
flooding that will be mainly localized.   On the backside of the storm,
the system will produce higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain
over the Northern Rockies through late Sunday night. 

Critical fire weather is in place across the Southern High Plains and
Southern California.  Gusty winds and low humidity will lead to a higher
risk of wildfires and promote conditions for wildfires to spread.  Red
Flag Warnings are also in effect.

Elsewhere, onshore moist flow off the Pacific will aid in producing rain
and highest elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest and rain and higher
elevation snow over parts of the Northern Rockies from Sunday evening into
Tuesday.  

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php