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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0758Z Feb 22, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 22 2019 - 12Z Sun Feb 24 2019 ...HIGH Risk of excessive rainfall on Friday with more heavy rain likely in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... ...Thunderstorms will continue into Saturday for the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, with severe weather likely... ...Heavy snow ongoing in the Four Corners region will spread into the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest, with freezing rain and high winds likely as well... Copious amounts of moisture will continue streaming into the southeastern U.S. over the next couple of days. This along with a quasi-stationary front that will eventually lift north as a warm front is expected to continue producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across the south central and southeastern U.S. The biggest concern on Friday will be for heavy rain in parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys--here, soils are already oversaturated, so there is a High Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding in those areas. Any additional rain will cause dangerous flooding conditions. On Saturday, severe weather is forecast for the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The Storm Prediction Center has currently outlooked an Enhanced Risk of severe weather for eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and southwestern Tennessee. The rain is expected to finally end on Saturday night after a cold front sweeps through the region, drying out the atmosphere. An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the Four Corners region on Friday and into the Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a low pressure system will slowly move across the Southwest on Friday and Friday night, then rapidly through the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday while strengthening. The cold temperatures and the lift (rising motion of the air) in association with these features will create more winter weather. Additional snow of 6 to 10 inches is forecast for higher elevations of the Mongollon Rim and the Southern and Central Rockies on Friday. As the low tracks east and then northeast, winter weather will spread to the Northern/Central Plains on Friday and into the Upper Midwest by Friday night. A swath of 6 to 8 inches of snow is forecast for the Central Plains, with higher totals of 8 to 12 inches in the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. Additionally, freezing rain is expected to accumulate in these areas, with over a tenth of an inch of ice currently forecast for parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Hazardous travel conditions are likely. By Sunday morning, the deep low pressure system will bring strong winds and heavy snow to the Upper Great Lakes region. In the Northwest, another upper low is expected to drop southward through the region and lead to moderate to heavy precipitation there through the end of the week. Though mainly rain along the Pacific Northwest coast, snow could mix in even in the lower elevation cities (Seattle and Portland for example) with the persistent cold conditions. The higher elevations of the Cascades could see 1 to 2 feet of snow, with moderate to heavy snow in the Northern Great Basin as well. Temperatures will remain colder than average in the western half of the CONUS. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php