Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019
Valid 00Z Fri Nov 15 2019 - 00Z Sun Nov 17 2019
...Temperatures across the eastern U.S. will recover during the next
couple of days but they will remain below average...
...Rain along the Gulf Coast will head to the Southeast by the weekend
with increasing winds...
...Good chance of snows across the Great Lakes through Friday while rain
moves onshore into the Pacific Northwest...
A weaker, relatively dry cold front will progress out of the Plains in to
the Ohio Valley later today into Friday ahead of another High Pressure.
Unlike its predecessor, this high is Pacific in origin though will keep
temperatures below average through Saturday across the eastern half of the
For the Deep South into the Southeast, a compact upper-level cyclone
tracks out of northeast Mexico and along the Gulf Coast and will bring a
good chance of rain along the Gulf Coast today, in association with a weak
western Gulf surface low and strong moisture convergence. This wave will
weaken in favor of wave over the Eastern Gulf forming by later today
(Thurs), allowing the rain to spread further east. By late Friday into
Saturday, as the upper-level cyclone presses toward the East Coast, the
surface wave will rapidly strengthen allowing for focused moderate to
heavy, longer duration rainfall as well as blustery winds along the coast.
Further offshore, the storm will evolve into a Gale and potentially to a
Storm by Sat supporting coastal flooding, and high surf/waves.
The global scale vortex over the Hudson Bay will direct multiple
pulses/weak cold fronts through the Great Lakes with one last stronger
cold front crossing the northern Great Lakes Friday and crossing the
Eastern Great Lakes/Interior Northeast by Sat, providing a renewed round
of light snow. Behind the front, a strong high pressure associated with
deep cold Arctic air will provide another chance of temps 15-20 degrees
below on Sat for extreme northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.
In the West, strong southwesterly flow off the Pacific will bring some
showers across the Pacific Northwest early Friday which will transition to
high elevation snows across Idaho into Montana, overnight Saturday before
supporting a surface low across Southern Canada. Snows, and possible
mixed precip spread into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes region by
late Saturday. Given the persistent warm Pacific flow regime, the west
will remain above average in temperature and still dry south of the OR/CA
border and the Great Basin. Yet, as the aforementioned front zone passes,
along with downslope warming off the Rockies, will support the broadening
of above average temperatures into the Plains by Saturday afternoon as far
south as the TX/OK Panhandles.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php