Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 11 2021 - 12Z Tue Apr 13 2021

...Wet and stormy from the Great Lakes to the East Coast today; scattered
showers to stick around the Great Lakes and Northeast on Monday...

...Dome of Canadian high pressure to direct below normal temperatures from
the Northwest and northern Rockies today into the Nation's Heartland to
open the week...

...Elevated fire weather risk remains in place for parts of the Southwest;
Wind Advisories in the northern High Plains today...

An occluded low pressure system entering the Great Lakes will continue to
spawn areas of showers and thunderstorms from the Upper Mississippi Valley
to the East Coast today. The best chances for potentially severe
thunderstorms reside within the storm system's warm sector over the
Mid-Atlantic and ahead of its associated cold front in Florida. In fact, a
Slight Risk for severe weather is in place for much of the Florida
Peninsula. Abnormally cool temperatures reside beneath a cold and potent
upper low also tracking into the Great Lakes later today. High temps
ranging between the low-mid 50s are expected from the Wisconsin on south
and east into the Ohio Valley. The storm system will gradually weaken
Sunday night and into Monday but is in no rush to leave the northeastern
quarter of the Lower 48. This keeps spotty showers and mostly cloudy
conditions in place throughout the Great Lakes and Northeast into the
start of the week. The good news is the cold front races into the
northwest Atlantic on Monday and a weak area of high pressure moves in
across the Southeast, making for a drier and quieter start to the
work-week.

Farther west, an area of low pressure ushers in a seasonally cool
temperature regime to the Northwest and northern Rockies. Some spots in
the Pacific Northwest may even see record cold low temps this morning. In
wake of the storm's cold frontal passage, a dome of Canadian high pressure
spilling down from western provinces will support the push of abnormally
colder temperatures southward the first half of the upcoming week. Places
like the southern High Plains go from a more summer-like regime on Sunday
to feeling more like March come Monday. Cooler temperatures are forecast
to overtake the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. Along with the colder
temperatures, areas of mountain snow across the northern and central
Rockies are likely to transpire both today and Monday. A meandering upper
low over the North-Central U.S. could lead to several inches of
accumulating snowfall in parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota late
Sunday and into Monday.

Regarding other weather hazards around the country, fire weather
conditions remain at elevated levels in parts of the Southwest and the
central High Plains today. Fire weather conditions improve in the central
High Plain on Monday, but persist in portions of New Mexico and Arizona.
Plus, abnormally chilly conditions have led to some Frost Advisories being
issued for parts of the central Plains and along the coast of northern
California and southwest Oregon. Lastly, there are a handful of High Wind
Warnings in place for western South Dakota and Wyoming this morning. Wind
Advisories have also been posted for the western Dakotas and eastern
Montana through this evening as wind gusts could reach as high as 55 mph
at times.

Mullinax

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php