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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1903Z Nov 14, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 203 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 Valid 00Z Fri Nov 15 2019 - 00Z Sun Nov 17 2019 ...Temperatures across the eastern U.S. will recover during the next couple of days but they will remain below average... ...Rain along the Gulf Coast will head to the Southeast by the weekend with increasing winds... ...Good chance of snows across the Great Lakes through Friday while rain moves onshore into the Pacific Northwest... A weaker, relatively dry cold front will progress out of the Plains in to the Ohio Valley later today into Friday ahead of another High Pressure. Unlike its predecessor, this high is Pacific in origin though will keep temperatures below average through Saturday across the eastern half of the United States. For the Deep South into the Southeast, a compact upper-level cyclone tracks out of northeast Mexico and along the Gulf Coast and will bring a good chance of rain along the Gulf Coast today, in association with a weak western Gulf surface low and strong moisture convergence. This wave will weaken in favor of wave over the Eastern Gulf forming by later today (Thurs), allowing the rain to spread further east. By late Friday into Saturday, as the upper-level cyclone presses toward the East Coast, the surface wave will rapidly strengthen allowing for focused moderate to heavy, longer duration rainfall as well as blustery winds along the coast. Further offshore, the storm will evolve into a Gale and potentially to a Storm by Sat supporting coastal flooding, and high surf/waves. The global scale vortex over the Hudson Bay will direct multiple pulses/weak cold fronts through the Great Lakes with one last stronger cold front crossing the northern Great Lakes Friday and crossing the Eastern Great Lakes/Interior Northeast by Sat, providing a renewed round of light snow. Behind the front, a strong high pressure associated with deep cold Arctic air will provide another chance of temps 15-20 degrees below on Sat for extreme northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. In the West, strong southwesterly flow off the Pacific will bring some showers across the Pacific Northwest early Friday which will transition to high elevation snows across Idaho into Montana, overnight Saturday before supporting a surface low across Southern Canada. Snows, and possible mixed precip spread into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Given the persistent warm Pacific flow regime, the west will remain above average in temperature and still dry south of the OR/CA border and the Great Basin. Yet, as the aforementioned front zone passes, along with downslope warming off the Rockies, will support the broadening of above average temperatures into the Plains by Saturday afternoon as far south as the TX/OK Panhandles. Gallina Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php