Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 14 2018 - 00Z Thu Aug 16 2018

...Heavy Rain Possible Over the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast...

...Heavy rain possible over the Southern Plains this afternoon/tonight,
stretching into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday...

...Fire Weather Concerns continue across the western U.S....

A quasi-stationary front extending along the coast of the New England, the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will result in chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the next couple days. A surface low pressure system
embedded in this frontal system, combined with a strong upper level low,
will allow for strong moisture advection into the northern Mid Atlantic
and southern New England, where rain and thunderstorms will be likely
today through Tuesday. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a slight
risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding in this region through
tonight. Furthermore, eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and
northwest New Jersey are outlined in a moderate risk through tonight,
highlighting that rain and flash flood potential will be greatest in this
area. Flash Flood Watches and warnings are also currently in effect this
afternoon for this region as well. The threat for flash flooding will
taper off through the day Tuesday as the upper level low driving this
system shifts inland and loses strength, becoming an open wave.

Meanwhile, the southern extent of the above mentioned frontal system will
stretch back into the Southern Plains where it will combine with another
surface low pressure feature and strong upper level system. This will
result in strong advection of warm and moist air into the Southern and
Central Plains from the Gulf of Mexico, producing scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. These will slowly shift eastward through at
least mid-week as the surface and upper level low also make a slow
eastward progression. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a portion
of the Central and Southern Plains as being in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall and flash flooding through tonight. This area will transition
slightly eastward and encompass a portion of the Middle Mississippi Valley
for Tuesday and Tuesday night, and then continue into the Middle
Mississippi and Ohio Valley for Wednesday and Wednesday night. A Flash
Flood Watch is currently in place across western Oklahoma and far
Northwest Arkansas.

Elsewhere, Air Quality Alerts also remain in place across a large portion
of Central California as well as across inland Washington and northern
Idaho as wildfires continue to infuse the air with copious amounts of
smoke. Red Flag warnings and Fire Weather Watches are also in effect for
much of Nevada, as well as portions of southern Wyoming. Weak monsoonal
moisture and daytime heating will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin and the
Southern/Central Rockies through this evening.


Wix


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php