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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1933Z Feb 20, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 233 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Valid 00Z Thu Feb 21 2019 - 00Z Sat Feb 23 2019 ...Heavy rain continues across the Southeast into the weekend... ...Wintry weather exits the Northeast and Great Lakes... ...Heavy snow likely across higher elevations of the Southwest and Southern Rockies... An area of low pressure originating from the Gulf of Mexico is strengthening and lifting northward towards the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This is in response to an upper level trough and strong shortwave impulse tracking across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Moisture is surging north from Louisiana to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, and heavy rain and some thunderstorms will continue in the warm sector of the low. Additional rainfall will be likely towards the end of the week along a stationary front and ahead of an energetic system entering the Plains. Additional rainfall amounts on the order of 1 to 3 inches are expected through Friday evening across much of the Deep South as multiple rounds of rain fall over the same areas, widespread Flash Flood Watches and Warnings have been issued. River flooding in the coming days will also be an issue. Farther to the north in a colder airmass, snow and a wintry mix will be prevalent across the northern Mid-Atlantic, stretching into Northeast and Upper Great Lakes Wednesday evening. With strong warm air advection aloft, a transition to sleet and then rain is expected for areas near and east of Interstate 95. Freezing rain is also likely farther inland across western Virginia, West Virginia, western Maryland, and into Pennsylvania since the low level sub-freezing temperatures will be slower to erode for those areas. Significant icing is also possible for some interior valley locations, with precipitation coming to an end Thursday morning. Light snow will come to an end across the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast by Thursday morning, while snow showers linger across northern New England into the evening. Out West, high temperatures will continue to run 10-20 degrees below average along and west of the Continental Divide through the end of the week. A storm system is forecast to slowly churn across the Southwest and exit into the Southern Plains by Friday evening. This will bring heavy snow to the higher elevations of the Southwest and Southern Rockies. Additional snowfall totals of over a foot are forecast for some of the major mountain ranges extending from Arizona, southern Utah, and southwestern Colorado through Friday night. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php