Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 28 2023 - 12Z Thu Nov 30 2023
...Active lake-effect snowfall downwind of the Great Lakes will continue
Tuesday, producing locally heavy snowfall amounts...
...Below average temperatures continue for the East Coast and South with
freeze-related advisories in effect from the Florida Panhandle to coastal
...Mostly dry conditions for the western and central U.S. as a warm up
comes to the Plains/Mississippi Valley...
Embedded shortwaves in northwesterly cyclonic flow rounding a deep
upper-level low over Canada will continue to produce snow downwind of the
Great Lakes Tuesday, particularly Lakes Erie and Ontario. Here, additional
forecast snow totals of 8-16 inches, with locally higher amounts, are
expected through Wednesday morning, bringing storm total snowfall well
above 2 feet for some locations. Heavy snow rates and gusty winds will
make travel treacherous. Some lighter amounts of around 2-4 inches will
remain possible downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan. Much of the rest
of the country will remain dry over the next couple of days. One exception
will be in coastal California where an approaching upper-level
trough/Pacific system will bring some light to moderate showers. As this
upper-level trough continues southeastward, some lower elevation/valley
rain and higher elevation snow will be possible by late Wednesday for the
Four Corners region. Any snow accumulations look to remain light and
limited to higher mountain peaks, at least through Thursday morning.
Increasing moist southerly flow from the Gulf ahead of this system should
also bring some showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night.
The other main story over the next couple of days will be the chilly,
below average temperatures for the East Coast and portions of the South.
Forecast highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s for New
England, 30s and 40s for the Mid-Atlantic, 40s and 50s for the Carolinas,
and 50s and 60s from southern Texas along the Gulf Coast into the
Southeast and all but south Florida. The coldest morning lows of the
season so far are expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Southeast
Wednesday morning, with widespread 20s forecast. Temperatures may dip to
near or below freezing as far south as the Florida Panhandle/north
Peninsula northeastward through coastal South Carolina. A Freeze Watch has
been issued for the region as these temperatures may damage and kill
sensitive crops and vegetation. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging moving
eastward over the western Plains as upper-level troughing gives way over
the Midwest will bring a warm-up to central portions of the country. Highs
will be well above average and in the 40s and 50s for the Northern and
Central Plains. After one more chilly day Tuesday, temperatures will warm
into the 40s and 50s for much of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley
Wednesday. Conditions will be mostly seasonable across the West, with 30s
and 40s for the Rockies and Great Basin, 40s and 50s for the Pacific
Northwest, 50s and 60s for California, and 70s for the Desert Southwest.
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