Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026

...Low pressure system forecast to bring widespread precipiation to the
South and Southeast this weekend...

...Snow showers expected across higher elevations of the Interior West and
Pacific Northwest...

...Well above normal temperatures across the Plains...

An progressive amplified mid-level pattern will dominate the period as the
deepening trough will lift eastward across the Plains and Midwest later
Friday into Saturday, reinforcing the ridge along the West. At the
surface, the low pressure system developing over the Southern Rockies and
Plains on Friday will track east-northeast into the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Southeast, while the southerly flow will draw abundant Gulf
moisture northward. This pattern will promote widespread rainfall across
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, with
a chance for embedded thunderstorms and localized heavy rain bands where
training may occur. Parts of the ArkLaTex region into lower Mississippi
Valley have been placed under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
with gusty winds and isolated hail from Friday afternoon into Saturday. In
addition, parts of the southern Plains have been placed under a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding for Friday, as well as a
slight risk for parts of ArkLaTex into the Mid-South for Saturday. By
Sunday, the front will move over into the Southeast, bringing chances for
precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic with a chance for a rain/snow mix over
higher elevations within the Northeast.

A frontal passage from the Gulf of Alaska will move into the Pacific
Northwest and will bring chances for precipitation over the next few days.
Higher elevations over Interior West and Pacific Northwest may see some
light to moderate snow Friday afternoon into Saturday. As the front moves
further southeast along the west coast on Sunday, chances will increase
for snowfall along higher elevations within northern California.

Temperatures will continue to trend above normal over the next few days
across much of CONUS, especially over Central U.S. where temperatures will
see a higher contrast of 15-30 degrees above normal. Temperatures over
central/southern Plains into Southeast can see highs in the 60s to 70s
with some areas within Texas experiencing low 80s, while the Northeast
will see close to normal seasonal temperatures between 30 to 40s. Over the
interior West and Southwest conditions will remain mostly dry and slightly
above normal temperatures through Saturday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php