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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z Nov 28, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 28 2023 - 12Z Thu Nov 30 2023 ...Active lake-effect snowfall downwind of the Great Lakes will continue Tuesday, producing locally heavy snowfall amounts... ...Below average temperatures continue for the East Coast and South with freeze-related advisories in effect from the Florida Panhandle to coastal South Carolina... ...Mostly dry conditions for the western and central U.S. as a warm up comes to the Plains/Mississippi Valley... Embedded shortwaves in northwesterly cyclonic flow rounding a deep upper-level low over Canada will continue to produce snow downwind of the Great Lakes Tuesday, particularly Lakes Erie and Ontario. Here, additional forecast snow totals of 8-16 inches, with locally higher amounts, are expected through Wednesday morning, bringing storm total snowfall well above 2 feet for some locations. Heavy snow rates and gusty winds will make travel treacherous. Some lighter amounts of around 2-4 inches will remain possible downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan. Much of the rest of the country will remain dry over the next couple of days. One exception will be in coastal California where an approaching upper-level trough/Pacific system will bring some light to moderate showers. As this upper-level trough continues southeastward, some lower elevation/valley rain and higher elevation snow will be possible by late Wednesday for the Four Corners region. Any snow accumulations look to remain light and limited to higher mountain peaks, at least through Thursday morning. Increasing moist southerly flow from the Gulf ahead of this system should also bring some showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night. The other main story over the next couple of days will be the chilly, below average temperatures for the East Coast and portions of the South. Forecast highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s for New England, 30s and 40s for the Mid-Atlantic, 40s and 50s for the Carolinas, and 50s and 60s from southern Texas along the Gulf Coast into the Southeast and all but south Florida. The coldest morning lows of the season so far are expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Southeast Wednesday morning, with widespread 20s forecast. Temperatures may dip to near or below freezing as far south as the Florida Panhandle/north Peninsula northeastward through coastal South Carolina. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the region as these temperatures may damage and kill sensitive crops and vegetation. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging moving eastward over the western Plains as upper-level troughing gives way over the Midwest will bring a warm-up to central portions of the country. Highs will be well above average and in the 40s and 50s for the Northern and Central Plains. After one more chilly day Tuesday, temperatures will warm into the 40s and 50s for much of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday. Conditions will be mostly seasonable across the West, with 30s and 40s for the Rockies and Great Basin, 40s and 50s for the Pacific Northwest, 50s and 60s for California, and 70s for the Desert Southwest. Putnam Graphics available at