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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1956Z Oct 04, 2022)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Valid 00Z Wed Oct 05 2022 - 00Z Fri Oct 07 2022 ...Rainy, breezy, and cool conditions persist from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England through Wednesday... ...Showers and thunderstorms in the Southwest, with isolated heavy rainfall... ...Above-average temperatures throughout the Plains and Midwest before a strong cold front begins pushing southward late Wednesday... ...Pleasant weather across the Pacific Northwest and California through the end of the week... An upper-level low, associated with the remnants of Ian, will continue to produce rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding in the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday evening as sustained onshore flow pesters the region. Rainfall totals of 4-8" have already been reported across coastal New Jersey, as waves of moisture have pushed onshore throughout the last several days, with additional totals of 1-2" possible for the Delmarva Peninsula northward into southern New England. Furthermore, temperature departures of 15-25 degrees below-normal will continue through Tuesday, with widespread potential record low maximum temperatures possible today from the Outerbanks of North Carolina to the NYC metropolitan area. Impacts will begin to subside across the Mid-Atlantic as the low slowly moves further offshore late Wednesday and high pressure slides eastward in its wake, with temperatures rebounding into the low to mid-60s tomorrow before climbing closer to average on Friday. Further west, temperatures will remain above-average across much of the Plains and Great Lakes region, with highs today and tomorrow in the low to mid-70s for the Lower Great Lakes, upper 70s to low 80s for the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and upper 80s to 90 degrees for the Southern Plains. However, a potent cold front moving southward from Canada will bring much cooler, fall-like air to the northern Plains on Thursday, with highs dipping into the low to mid-40s across the Dakotas and Upper Great Lakes, before spreading even further south on Friday. Highs will also be above average in the West through Friday, with upper 70s and low 80s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, lower 90s for the central California Valleys, low to mid-70s along the California coast, and mid-90s to near 100 for the Desert Southwest. Moreover, conditions will remain dry during this span, resulting in overall favorable conditions for outdoor activities through at least the end of the week. Elsewhere, a frontal system sagging southeastward across the Southwest and Intermountain West towards a region of anomalous surface moisture will lead to the potential of heavy rainfall in Arizona and New Mexico over the next several days. As a result, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for the region through Thursday, with the potential existing for isolated heavy rainfall rates associated with showers and thunderstorms that can lead to flash flooding at times given the wet antecedent conditions. Russell Graphics are available at