Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
440 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 17 2025 - 00Z Thu Jun 19 2025

...Flash flooding threat continues across the central Appalachians through
Tuesday night, diminishes across the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Kentucky later
tonight, but increases across the central Plains to the Midwest on
Tuesday...

...Episodes of severe thunderstorms expected to impact the north-central
U.S. for the next couple of days, spreading into the Midwest and lower
Great Lakes on Wednesday...

...Fire weather threat will shift from the Great Basin, across the Four
Corners and into the far southern Rockies through the next couple of days
along with significant heat in the Southwest...

An upper-level trough interacting with a cold front will bring the most
active weather into the north-central U.S. through the next couple of
days.  Episodes of severe thunderstorms can be expected to impact areas
from the northern High Plains, across Nebraska and into Minnesota through
tonight mainly behind the surface frontal boundary.  Later Tuesday into
early Wednesday will be the time period when more intense thunderstorms
could erupt across Kansas when a wave of low pressure is forecast to
develop.  The low pressure wave is then forecast to intensify and track
northeast into the Midwest on Wednesday when the threat of severe
thunderstorms will shift farther south and east from the central Plains
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley and into the lower Great Lakes.  In
addition to the severe weather threat, a heavy rain/flash flooding threat
is expected from the east-central Plains to northern Illinois on Tuesday
and Tuesday night. The heavy rain threat may lessen a bit on Wednesday
across the Midwest to the Great Lakes but strong to severe thunderstorms
could develop once again later on Wednesday across the Midwest ahead of
the cold front trailing from the intensifying low pressure system.

Meanwhile, the heavy rain and flash flooding threats are expected to
linger across the central Appalachians through Tuesday night as a warm
front will be slow to lift out of the area.  Wednesday should see these
risks diminish as the warm front lifts northeast through New England.
Across much of the Ohio Valley, southern Mid-Atlantic and the Deep South,
scattered thunderstorms will be the rule through the next couple of days
due to instability and the approach of an elongated upper-level trough.

As a progressive, kicker disturbance moves through the West, a fire
weather risk currently emerging across the Great Basin will gradually
shift southeast across portions of Arizona, the Four Corners, and into the
far southern Rockies through the next couple of days under a dry west to
northwesterly wind that becomes gusty behind cold frontal impulses.  Red
Flag Warnings are in effect for a large portion within these areas.

Significant heat today across the Southwest underneath an upper-level
ridge will moderate slightly on Tuesday before rebounding across the
Desert Southwest on Wednesday as the ridge reestablishes following the
departure of upper troughing into the central U.S.  High temperatures will
remain in the 110s for the hottest locations in the Desert Southwest
through the next couple of days where Extreme Heat Warnings remain in
effect.  Meanwhile, Heat Advisories remain in effect across portions of
southern New Mexico, southern California, and far western Texas where high
temperatures from the 90s to well up into the 100s are forecast for the
next couple of afternoons.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php