Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 19 2020 - 12Z Mon Sep 21 2020
...Tropical Storm Beta is forecast to reach hurricane strength and
threatens the Texas coast Sunday into Monday...
...Much needed rains moving across the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies...Flash flooding and debris flows possible over burn scars...
...Dry conditions, fire weather threat and poor air quality to continue
...Frosts likely from the Great Lakes into the Northeast but very warm
over the northern Plains...
Tropical Storm Beta in the western Gulf of Mexico has become the latest
tropical cyclone expected to threaten the western Gulf Coast region in
this extremely busy tropical season. The weak steering flow that the
tropical cyclone is embedded in increases the forecast uncertainty
regarding its future impacts to the Gulf Coast. The current forecast
calls for Beta to intensify into a hurricane as it moves slowly toward the
central Texas coast. Beta has the potential to be a prolific rain
producer for the Texas Gulf Coast beginning Sunday and possibly continuing
into much of next week across the western Gulf coast given the expected
slow movement in addition to possible hurricane conditions and storm
surge. Please consult the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on the latest
forecast track and intensity of Beta. The Weather Prediction Center will
continue to actively coordinate with the NHC on the rainfall aspects
Meanwhile, much needed rains are expected to spread further inland across
portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies this weekend.
While these rains will bring some relief from the recent fires and
hazardous air quality, they will also pose a threat of flash flooding and
debris flows across the recent burn scar regions.
Farther to the south across California, no relief from the dry weather is
in sight where a fire weather threat and hazardous air quality from
ongoing fires will continue through the weekend. A dry front moving
across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies could raise the fire
danger in these areas for the next couple of days.
Above average temperatures will continue this weekend from the Southwest,
across the Great Basin, Rockies and into the central and northern Plains
ahead of a developing low pressure system. In contrast, a large area of
cold high pressure will bring below average temperatures into early next
week for nearly all areas to the east of the Mississippi River. Frosts
are likely in the early morning hours from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast where Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect. Hazy
skies are expected to continue as smoke particles from the western U.S.
fires remain suspended in the air for much of the Plains.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php