Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 PM EDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 08 2024 - 00Z Tue Sep 10 2024

...Dangerous heat continues to impact portions of the West this weekend...

...Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding are possible along
the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast...

...Below average temperatures to settle in across much of the Midwest and
East through the beginning of next week...

A few more days of record-breaking and dangerous heat are in store for
parts of the West as above average temperatures linger underneath a
weakening upper-level high pressure. Areas most likely to experience major
to extreme HeatRisk (levels of heat that affect anyone without effective
cooling or adequate hydration) through Sunday include southern California,
the Desert Southwest, and the northern Great Basin. These regions are also
where Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect. High
temperatures in the Southwest are expected to soar into the upper 90s and
triple digits, with 110s in the typically hottest desert locations through
at least Monday. Highs into the upper 90s are forecast to simmer the
northern Great Basin before a gradual cooling trend commences by early
next week, with the anomalously warm temperatures forecast to shift
eastward into the northern Plains. Residents and visitors are advised to
continue following proper heat safety. This includes staying hydrated and
taking frequent breaks from the heat during the hottest parts of the day.
In addition to heat, wildfire smoke causing poor air quality will also be
a concern for parts of the Great Basin.

A stationary front draped across the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico
will continue to provide a focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms
over the next few days. The moisture gradient along the front will be
reinforced by a separate approaching cold front sinking southward towards
the Gulf Coast tonight, and moisture will linger around the boundary
through the next few days. Areas of locally heavy rain and scattered flash
flooding will be possible for portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast,
including northern and central Florida. Tropical moisture is forecast to
spread north into Texas by Monday as an area of low pressure develops in
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and the threat for heavy rain and
scattered flash flooding will focus along portions of the Texas Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, a cold front sweeping across the East Coast will produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight. A fall-like air mass
with below normal, crisp temperatures will filter into the East behind the
front underneath potent high pressure. Widespread lows into the 40s will
lead to a few chilly mornings, with several daily record lows possible
between Missouri and New Jersey on Sunday. Patchy frost cannot be ruled
out for some locations where temperatures may dip into the upper 30s.
Conversely, South Florida will remain hot and humid this weekend as high
temperatures rise into the low-to-mid 90s, while heat indices approach 110
degrees.

Snell/Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php