Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 21 2019 - 00Z Sat Feb 23 2019

...Heavy rain continues across the Southeast into the weekend...

...Wintry weather exits the Northeast and Great Lakes...

...Heavy snow likely across higher elevations of the Southwest and
Southern Rockies...

An area of low pressure originating from the Gulf of Mexico is
strengthening and lifting northward towards the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes. This is in response to an upper level trough and strong shortwave
impulse tracking across the Plains and Upper Midwest.  Moisture is surging
north from Louisiana to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, and
heavy rain and some thunderstorms will continue in the warm sector of the
low. Additional rainfall will be likely towards the end of the week along
a stationary front and ahead of an energetic system entering the Plains.
Additional rainfall amounts on the order of 1 to 3 inches are expected
through Friday evening across much of the Deep South as multiple rounds of
rain fall over the same areas, widespread Flash Flood Watches and Warnings
have been issued. River flooding in the coming days will also be an issue.

Farther to the north in a colder airmass, snow and a wintry mix will be
prevalent across the northern Mid-Atlantic, stretching into Northeast and
Upper Great Lakes Wednesday evening. With strong warm air advection aloft,
a transition to sleet and then rain is expected for areas near and east of
Interstate 95. Freezing rain is also likely farther inland across western
Virginia, West Virginia, western Maryland, and into Pennsylvania since the
low level sub-freezing temperatures will be slower to erode for those
areas. Significant icing is also possible for some interior valley
locations, with precipitation coming to an end Thursday morning. Light
snow will come to an end across the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast by
Thursday morning, while snow showers linger across northern New England
into the evening.

Out West, high temperatures will continue to run 10-20 degrees below
average along and west of the Continental Divide through the end of the
week. A storm system is forecast to slowly churn across the Southwest and
exit into the Southern Plains by Friday evening. This will bring heavy
snow to the higher elevations of the Southwest and Southern Rockies.
Additional snowfall totals of over a foot are forecast for some of the
major mountain ranges extending from Arizona, southern Utah, and
southwestern Colorado through Friday night.

Snell


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php