Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Tue Oct 04 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 05 2022 - 00Z Fri Oct 07 2022

...Rainy, breezy, and cool conditions persist from the Mid-Atlantic to
southern New England through Wednesday...

...Showers and thunderstorms in the Southwest, with isolated heavy
rainfall...

...Above-average temperatures throughout the Plains and Midwest before a
strong cold front begins pushing southward late Wednesday...

...Pleasant weather across the Pacific Northwest and California through
the end of the week...

An upper-level low, associated with the remnants of Ian, will continue to
produce rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding in the Mid-Atlantic
through Wednesday evening as sustained onshore flow pesters the region.
Rainfall totals of 4-8" have already been reported across coastal New
Jersey, as waves of moisture have pushed onshore throughout the last
several days, with additional totals of 1-2" possible for the Delmarva
Peninsula northward into southern New England. Furthermore, temperature
departures of 15-25 degrees below-normal will continue through Tuesday,
with widespread potential record low maximum temperatures possible today
from the Outerbanks of North Carolina to the NYC metropolitan area.
Impacts will begin to subside across the Mid-Atlantic as the low slowly
moves further offshore late Wednesday and high pressure slides eastward in
its wake, with temperatures rebounding into the low to mid-60s tomorrow
before climbing closer to average on Friday.

Further west, temperatures will remain above-average across much of the
Plains and Great Lakes region, with highs today and tomorrow in the low to
mid-70s for the Lower Great Lakes, upper 70s to low 80s for the Middle and
Lower Mississippi Valley, and upper 80s to 90 degrees for the Southern
Plains. However, a potent cold front moving southward from Canada will
bring much cooler, fall-like air to the northern Plains on Thursday, with
highs dipping into the low to mid-40s across the Dakotas and Upper Great
Lakes, before spreading even further south on Friday.

Highs will also be above average in the West through Friday, with upper
70s and low 80s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, lower 90s for
the central California Valleys, low to mid-70s along the California coast,
and mid-90s to near 100 for the Desert Southwest. Moreover, conditions
will remain dry during this span, resulting in overall favorable
conditions for outdoor activities through at least the end of the week.

Elsewhere, a frontal system sagging southeastward across the Southwest and
Intermountain West towards a region of anomalous surface moisture will
lead to the potential of heavy rainfall in Arizona and New Mexico over the
next several days. As a result, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall has
been issued for the region through Thursday, with the potential existing
for isolated heavy rainfall rates associated with showers and
thunderstorms that can lead to flash flooding at times given the wet
antecedent conditions.


Russell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php