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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z Sep 19, 2020)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Valid 12Z Sat Sep 19 2020 - 12Z Mon Sep 21 2020 ...Tropical Storm Beta is forecast to reach hurricane strength and threatens the Texas coast Sunday into Monday... ...Much needed rains moving across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies...Flash flooding and debris flows possible over burn scars... ...Dry conditions, fire weather threat and poor air quality to continue across California... ...Frosts likely from the Great Lakes into the Northeast but very warm over the northern Plains... Tropical Storm Beta in the western Gulf of Mexico has become the latest tropical cyclone expected to threaten the western Gulf Coast region in this extremely busy tropical season. The weak steering flow that the tropical cyclone is embedded in increases the forecast uncertainty regarding its future impacts to the Gulf Coast. The current forecast calls for Beta to intensify into a hurricane as it moves slowly toward the central Texas coast. Beta has the potential to be a prolific rain producer for the Texas Gulf Coast beginning Sunday and possibly continuing into much of next week across the western Gulf coast given the expected slow movement in addition to possible hurricane conditions and storm surge. Please consult the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on the latest forecast track and intensity of Beta. The Weather Prediction Center will continue to actively coordinate with the NHC on the rainfall aspects regarding Beta. Meanwhile, much needed rains are expected to spread further inland across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies this weekend. While these rains will bring some relief from the recent fires and hazardous air quality, they will also pose a threat of flash flooding and debris flows across the recent burn scar regions. Farther to the south across California, no relief from the dry weather is in sight where a fire weather threat and hazardous air quality from ongoing fires will continue through the weekend. A dry front moving across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies could raise the fire danger in these areas for the next couple of days. Above average temperatures will continue this weekend from the Southwest, across the Great Basin, Rockies and into the central and northern Plains ahead of a developing low pressure system. In contrast, a large area of cold high pressure will bring below average temperatures into early next week for nearly all areas to the east of the Mississippi River. Frosts are likely in the early morning hours from the Great Lakes to the Northeast where Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect. Hazy skies are expected to continue as smoke particles from the western U.S. fires remain suspended in the air for much of the Plains. Kong/Oravec Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php