Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 18 2018 - 00Z Fri Jul 20 2018

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains and the Northeast States...

...Heavy rain possible over portions of Arizona, Northern New Mexico and
Southern Colorado, as well as parts of the northern High Plains and the
Northeastern states...

...Hot temperatures expected across the southern Plains and southern
Mississippi Valley, as well as for the portions of the western states...

A large frontal system currently extends from New England southward across
the Central Appalachians and westward through the Tennessee Valley into
the Southern Plains. The eastern portion of this front will continue to
shift eastward off shore into the Atlantic through Wednesday. Meanwhile,
the southern extent of the front will continue to push southward into the
southeast through the remainder of the week, while a low pressure system
deepens across the southern Plains and begins to transition northeast as a
warm front for the remainder of the week as well. During this time, shower
and thunderstorm development is expected along the frontal boundary. A
slight chance of severe thunderstorm potential is in place along New
England ahead of the front for this afternoon and tonight. Excessive rain
and flash flooding is also possible in this area today and tonight before
the front shifts out over the Atlantic Ocean.

Meanwhile, upper level energy and a low pressure system over the Northern
Plains is also resulting in the develpment of strong showers and
thunderstorms. A slight chance for both excessive rain and severe
thunderstorm activity will remain in place across portions of the Central
and Northern Plains through tomorrow, transitioning eastward into the Mid
and Upper Mississippi Valley by Thursday. The best threat for severe
weather and excessive rainfall will be during the afternoon and evening
hours during peak daytime heating.


A strong pull of warm air from the Gulf of Mexico is making its way into
the southern Plains and Lower Missisippi Valley ahead of the above
mentioned frontal boundary. This is leading to excessive heat, with heat
advisories in place in portions of this area through mid week. Out west,
much of the Pacific Northwest, California, and the western portion of the
Intermountain West are experiencing very dry conditions, which is aiding
in boosting temperatures across this region. Wind is also adding concerns
as well. Heat advisories, warnings, and Red Flag Warnings are all in
effect across portions of these areas through at least midweek.



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Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php