Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 04 2026 - 00Z Fri Mar 06 2026

...Frontal system to bring showers and potentially strong thunderstorms
between the southern Plains and Ohio Valley over the next few days...

...Potent cold front to cross the western U.S. and Rockies by midweek,
producing gusty winds and mountain snowfall...

...Above average temperatures are forecast to become widespread across the
Nation this week, with potential record-breaking warmth spreading from the
southern Plains to the Southeast...

An active weather pattern is in store for many locations between the
southern Plains and Northeast over the next several days as a frontal
boundary and waves of low pressure meander over the region. On the colder
side of the front, a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will
advance northward into the Northeast this afternoon and eventually New
England tonight. This wintry mix is expected to remain mostly light in
magnitude, but can still lead to areas of slippery travel. Along and south
of the boundary, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the afternoon and evening from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. The
repeating nature of some showers and thunderstorms may lead to over an
inch of rainfall and isolated flash flooding across the Ohio Valley, with
strong to severe thunderstorms possible from the Texas Panhandle to
central Missouri and western Illinois.

By Wednesday, a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the
aforementioned frontal boundary and push northeastward from the
central/southern Plains to the Midwest. This will allow for a cold front
to push southeast across the southern Plains and clash with warm humid air
lifting northward from the Gulf. Thunderstorms forming along and ahead of
this cold front could be severe from northeast Texas, to the Ozarks, to
southern Illinois where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather. The main threats from these storms
include damaging wind gusts and large hail, though an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, additional rounds of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are forecast throughout the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and
Northeast into Thursday as a warm front slowly advances northward.

Meanwhile, a strong storm system and fast-moving cold front is set to
develop and cross the western U.S. mid to late week. This system will
bring gusty winds and mountain snowfall to much of the region. Heavy snow
is possible in most mountain ranges spanning from the Cascades to the
central Rockies, along with the potential for low elevation snowfall
following the cold frontal passage. As the storm ejects eastward into the
central Plains, additional bouts of severe weather are likely Thursday and
Friday.

Even though the West experiences a cooldown through midweek, much of the
central and eastern U.S. can expect increasingly springlike temperatures.
This is particularly the case south of the frontal boundary as widespread
highs into the 70s span from the central Plains to the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by Thursday and Friday. Highs into the 80s
are forecast across the southern Plains this afternoon, which could break
several daily records. This record warmth will then expand into the
Southeast mid to late week with high temperatures surging into the 80s
once again. Several additional daily records are likely to be broken.
Meanwhile, north of the boundary, cloud cover and showers likely keep
temperatures stuck in the 40s and 50s across parts of the Northeast.


Miller/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php