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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0811Z Dec 06, 2018)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 311 AM EST Thu Dec 06 2018 Valid 12Z Thu Dec 06 2018 - 12Z Sat Dec 08 2018 ...Late week winter storm to bring ice and snow from parts of the Southern Plains on Friday and eastward to the Appalachians by this weekend... ...Heavy rainfall begins to impact Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday... ...Below to well below normal temperatures expected across the Great Plains into the Midwest... The short range period begins with rain across southern California coming to an end during the day on Thursday, with low elevation rain and high elevation snow showers also moving into parts of the Southwest and southern Great Basin. East of the Rockies, showers (snow to the north and rain to the south) are likely along a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to Texas. Light to moderate snow accumulations are possible on Thursday downwind of the Great Lakes as well as in parts of the northern and central Appalachians. This cold front will usher in a reinforcing shot of cold air into the central states, with afternoon highs on Thursday and Friday 10 to 25 degrees below normal, especially across the Texas Panhandle and into Oklahoma. The cold outbreak will set the stage for a winter storm developing by Friday from eastern New Mexico into western Oklahoma and eventually points east. As the upper level system from the Western U.S. pushes eastward and moisture streams northward ahead of it, precipitation will increase in intensity across the Southern Plains. Accumulating snow and ice appears likely from eastern New Mexico to western Oklahoma on Friday with snow totals of 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts possible especially across the Texas Panhandle. A swath of potentially significant ice is also forecast from roughly Lubbock, TX to near Oklahoma City, OK with accumulations in excess of 0.10 to 0.25 inches possible. South of this region, heavy rainfall is likely across eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. As rainfall increases in intensity near a developing area of low pressure in southeast Texas, flash flooding will become a threat and WPC has highlighted much of southeast Texas within a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall. This same system will push eastward and continue beyond the short range period spreading hazardous wintry weather from parts of the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians, and heavy rainfall across the Gulf Coast states and Southeast this weekend. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php