Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 PM EST Sun Feb 09 2025
Valid 00Z Mon Feb 10 2025 - 00Z Wed Feb 12 2025
...Lake-effect snow downwind from the eastern Great Lakes...
...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average across the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains and Northwest where a few Low Records may
fall through mid-week...
...Another fast moving storm with developing wintry mix stretching from
Ozarks through Tennessee Valley into Carolinas/Southern Mid-Atlantic
Tuesday into Wednesday...
...Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding may be possible Tuesday
evening across the Lower Mississippi and northern Deep South...
A surface low pressure is deepening southeast of New England with last
vestiges of snow tapering off this evening; however, in its wake, the Lake
Ontario lake effect belt will remain active through tonight into Monday
into early Tuesday likely to produce locally up to a foot of snow before
another very weak clipper-like system presses through on Tuesday. Lake
Erie will be much less active, but 1-3" is possible downstream in N PA/W
NY.
Another Arctic high pressure and associated cold front is starting to drop
into the Northern High Plains today and will usher in well below
temperatures across the region Monday at nearly 20-30 degrees below normal
before moderating a bit and spreading out across the rest of the northern,
central Plains and into the Southern High Plains by Tuesday. This cold
air will leak through the Pacific Northwest, as well and with 15-20
degrees below average may reach a few potential low records, particularly
on Tuesday.
As the cold front drops south with larger scale upper-level trough
developing across the Rockies and connecting with southern stream across
the Great Basin/Four Corners region; return moisture and warm air will
emerge from the Western Gulf of Mexico and tighten the frontal zone across
the Southern Plains all the way east to the Carolinas by Tuesday. Along
and south of the front, showers and thunderstorms will break out Tuesday
night across N LA, MS, AL into the southern foothills/plateaus of the
Southern Appalachians. The above average moisture and favorable steering
currents for the cells may result in excessive rainfall capable of
localized flash flooding. As such, the Weather Prediction Center has
issued a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4).
Along the north-side of the front, the cold air dumping in will allow for
the development of wintry weather conditions with snows across the eastern
Central Plains through northern Kentucky, western Virginia on Tuesday.
There may be some wintry mix along/just north of the front west of the
Appalachians; however, eastward, cold air damned in from prior front
leaving will allow for broader area of freezing rain/sleet along the NC/VA
border with heavy snow fall rates across Virginia. A tight gradient is
expected and may vary north and south over the next few days as the pieces
move into place. Please stay advised by your local forecast office
products/discussions at www.weather.gov.
Gallina
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php