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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1931Z Jul 12, 2019)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 331 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Valid 00Z Sat Jul 13 2019 - 00Z Mon Jul 15 2019 ...Tropical Storm Barry is currently expected to make landfall by Saturday afternoon and will cause significant flooding from very heavy rain and storm surge along the Central Gulf Coast... Tropical Storm Barry remains slow-moving south of the Louisiana coast, and is expected to meander northwestward before eventually making landfall along the Louisiana coast. Barry's landfall is currently forecast on Saturday afternoon. High winds and dangerous storm surge are likely, along with widespread flash flooding and river flooding. With the slow nature of the storm, total rainfall amounts are forecast to be 10 to 20 inches over Southeast Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi, with isolated amounts over 25 inches. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding is in effect for Southeastern Louisiana, with a High Risk in place for Saturday across Eastern Louisiana and far Southwestern Mississippi. Additionally, a Slight Risk of severe weather is issued over areas Central Gulf Coast as isolated tornadoes are possible within rainbands of Barry. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible farther east across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley as Gulf moisture streams in and pools along the front. Isolated flash flooding and locally heavy rain are possible over the Carolinas through the Sunday. A front moving eastward through the Upper Midwest and into the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday evening could cause scattered showers and thunderstorms along it, and also farther west across the Plains where the front will stall--a few severe storms are possible in the Plains. Underneath an upper-level ridge over the Western U. S. multiple impulses and monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the late evening over parts of the Southwest, Eastern Great Basin, and the Central/Southern Rockies on Friday evening into Sunday evening. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at