Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Aug 06 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Southwest on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Carolina Coast, the Eastern Gulf Coast of Florida, and the Southwest
on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Tuesday and over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains on Wednesday...

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians and
westward into the Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly dissipate by
Wednesday. Moisture-rich air and a nearby front will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast,
and Florida on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the Mid-Atlantic into parts of the Ohio
Valley southward to Florida.

Moreover, monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain over parts of the Southwest during the late afternoon into the
late evening through Thursday morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over the Southwest on Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable. 

A second front over the Upper Great Lakes, across the Middle Mississippi
Valley, and into parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Central Rockies
on Tuesday will move slowly eastward to the Great Lakes and the Central
Plains by Thursday morning.  The boundary will trigger showers and
thunderstorms from the Upper Great Lakes, Middle Mississippi Valley, and
Central Plains on Tuesday. The showers and thunderstorms will continue
over the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley, producing heavy rain on
Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall from Southwestern Lake Michigan into the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Central Plains from Wednesday morning into Thursday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable. 


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php