Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 30 2023 - 00Z Mon Oct 02 2023

...Additional heavy rain possible across parts of the Northeast tonight,
followed by drier conditions this weekend...

...Widespread precipitation and well below-normal temperatures expected
across the western U.S....

...Well above-normal to record-breaking heat forecast for parts the
central U.S....

....Locally heavy rainfall with isolated flooding possible across the
southern High Plains...

A slow-moving coastal low centered east of the Mid Atlantic states will
continue to support localized areas of heavy rain into the overnight
across portions of the Northeast.  This includes the New York City metro
into the lower Hudson Valley and southwestern Connecticut, where several
inches of rain and significant flooding have already occurred.  Conditions
are expected to improve as the low begins to slide farther east on
Saturday.  Then  high pressure and dry conditions can be expected across
much of the Northeast by late Saturday and continuing through Sunday. 

Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures will advance with a
frontal system across the western U.S. this weekend.  Showers and storms,
including high elevation snow, are expected to spread south and east from
the Northwest into the northern Rockies, Great Basin, and California by
early Saturday, before extending into the northern Plains and central
Rockies by early Sunday.  Temperatures for most areas west of the Rockies
are forecast to be well below normal through the weekend, with record cool
temperatures expected across portions of central and southern California.

Ahead of the precipiation, dry and windy conditions will prevail,
resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions, extending from
eastern Arizona and western New Mexico northward through western Colorado
and eastern Utah into southern Wyoming on Saturday.

In stark contrast to West, temperatures will be well above normal across
much of the central U.S.  Record temperatures are expected across portions
of the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley on Saturday, where
daytime highs are forecast to climb as much as 20 degrees above normal in
some locations.  The core of the anomalous heat is then expected to build
farther north, with record highs forecast for parts of the Upper Midwest
on Sunday.  Above-normal to record-breaking heat is expected for portions
of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley both days as well.

Over the southern High Plains, southerly winds will bring an increase in
moisture and a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. 
Some of these may produce locally heavy rainfall amounts, resulting in
excessive runoff and flash flooding.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php