Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022
Valid 12Z Wed May 25 2022 - 12Z Fri May 27 2022
...Flash flooding and severe weather threat for the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Mid-South...
...Record heat for portions of California; some fire weather risk for
portions of the Southwest...
...Mid-March weather for the Central Plains...
A storm system organizing over the Southern Plains early this morning will
continue to deepen through the day as it moves northeastward toward the
Corn Belt/Great Lakes. A warm front will lift northward as well, allowing
warm and moist Gulf air to surge through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
This will set the stage for a heavy rain threat over much of the central
Gulf Coast northward into the Mid-South. Flash flooding will be possible,
and a Moderate Risk area (at least a 40% chance of flash flooding within
25 miles) is depicted in some areas along the Mississippi River. Though
some thunderstorms may be severe, the main hazard may be the heavy
rainfall. The storm will slowly move through the mid-MS Valley and into
the Ohio Valley on Thursday, spreading rainfall farther northeastward into
the Southeast and the Tennessee Valley. Due to expected local heavy rain,
flash flooding will again be possible in some areas.
In the West, temperatures will again soar to near and over 100 degrees in
the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys which will challenge daily records.
Much above normal temperatures are likely for the Great Basin as well,
where readings well into the 80s and low 90s will be common. On Thursday,
the core of the hot temperatures will shift northeastward into the the
rest of the Interior West and northern Rockies, where temperatures are
forecast to be 10-20 degrees above normal for late May. Over portions of
New Mexico and far southwest Texas, warm/hot and dry/windy conditions may
lead to a fire weather risk again for today.
Over the Central Plains, on the northwest side of the storm system, north
to northeasterly flow combined with showers and abundant cloudiness will
keep temperatures quite chilly for late May. In fact, high temperatures
only in the 50s over much of the region are more typical of mid-March. By
Thursday, readings will rebound into the 60s and low 70s as rain exits the
Graphics are available at