Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 15 2018 - 12Z Wed Oct 17 2018
...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Southern Plains...
...Rain/freezing rain possible over Southwestern Texas into New Mexico...
...Temperatures will be 20 to 35 degrees below average over parts of the
Southern/Central Plains into parts of the Southern Rockies...
...Santa Ana Wind possible over parts of Southern California...
A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward to the Western
Gulf Coast will move eastward off the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic
Coast by Tuesday morning. The southern half of the boundary will linger
over the Southeast to the Central Gulf Coast by Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front from parts of the
Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians southwestward to the Lower Mississippi
Valley into parts of the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast that will move
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Western Gulf Coast by
Monday evening. The showers and thunderstorms will move off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Tuesday morning while continuing over the Southeast
to the Central Gulf Coast through Tuesday evening. Rain will also develop
over parts of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley into parts of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic that will move eastward into the
Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic into parts of the Ohio Valley by Monday
evening. The rain will move off the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast
by Tuesday afternoon. Along the northwestern edge of the precipitation
shield, snow and rain will develop over parts of the Upper Great
Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday that will move into Canada by
Monday evening. Wet snow will also develop over parts of Northern New
England early Tuesday morning ending by Tuesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, upper-level energy over Southern California into parts of the
Great Basin/Central Rockies will form an upper-level low over the
Southwest overnight Monday becoming quasi-stationary over the region
through Wednesday. Cold high pressure over the Central Rockies will sink
southeastward to the Southern High Plains by Tuesday evening into
Wednesday. The energy will aid in producing rain and snow over parts of
the Southern Rockies that will change over to all rain over the Southwest
overnight Monday. The clockwise circulation around the high pressure will
aid in producing rain over parts of the Southern Plains on Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning. Overnight Monday rain with pockets of
rain/freezing rain will develop over Southwestern Texas becoming mostly
rain over the area by Tuesday evening. On Tuesday, rain and areas of
rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of New Mexico into Wednesday.
A second front over South-Central Canada will move southeastward to the
Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Northern Plains by Tuesday
evening into Wednesday. Light snow and rain will develop over parts of
the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday evening. The rain
and snow will move into the Upper Great Lakes overnight Monday into
Tuesday evening. Elsewhere, high pressure over the Northern/Central
Rockies will aid in producing high wind over parts of Southern California
Monday into Monday evening.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php