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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0759Z Jul 12, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 12 2019 - 12Z Sun Jul 14 2019 ...Tropical Storm Barry is currently expected to make landfall by Saturday and will cause significant flooding from very heavy rain and storm surge along the Central Gulf Coast... Tropical Storm Barry remains slow-moving south of the Louisiana coast, and is expected to meander northwestward on Friday before eventually making landfall along the Louisiana coast. Barry's landfall is currently forecast on Saturday morning as a high-end tropical storm. High winds and dangerous storm surge are likely, along with widespread flash flooding and river flooding. With the slow nature of the storm, total rainfall amounts are forecast to be 10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated amounts over 25 inches. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding is in effect for southeastern Louisiana today, with a High Risk in place for tomorrow across eastern Louisiana and far southwestern Mississippi. Additionally, a Slight Risk of severe weather is in outlooked for these areas today as isolated tornadoes are possible within rainbands of Barry. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible farther east across the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and the Carolinas as Gulf moisture streams in south of a front. Isolated flash flooding and locally heavy rain are possible there through the weekend. A cool front moving eastward through the Upper Midwest Friday and into the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday could cause scattered showers and thunderstorms along it, and also farther west across the Plains where the front will stall--a few severe storms are possible in the Plains. Summertime afternoon thunderstorms are forecast for the Four Corners region. Temperatures will generally be near or above average across the contiguous U.S. by Saturday, with the exception of areas where Barry is affecting. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php