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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1949Z Apr 17, 2019)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 349 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019 Valid 00Z Thu Apr 18 2019 - 00Z Sat Apr 20 2019 ...Strong storm to impact the central to southern U.S. with severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected through Thursday... ...Heavy rain and the possibility of severe thunderstorms shifts to the eastern U.S. by Friday... Several locations will see a threat for severe thunderstorms through the remainder of the day as a two-part upper level storm system moves into the Great Plains. A northern portion will track through the Northern Plains this afternoon and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Thursday morning. A surface low and its corresponding cold/warm fronts will track ahead of this feature into Iowa and Wisconsin through tonight with increasing low-level moisture transporting northward through the Mississippi River Valley. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Slight Risk for severe storms surrounding the tri-state region of Iowa/Wisconsin/Illinois with concerns over tornadoes and hail. Heavy rain could also cause localized flooding in these areas. Farther to the south, the southern portion of the upper level storm system is moving across New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon, with thunderstorms erupting near the cold front stretching southwestward from the surface low in Iowa to the Texas Panhandle this evening. It is here, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Kansas where an Enhanced Risk is in place by SPC. Another Enhanced Risk area extends southward from southeast Oklahoma into northern and central Texas for severe thunderstorms forecast to develop late this evening and overnight. These storms will also pose a flash flood threat through Thursday morning from eastern Texas into the ArkLaTex toward the Memphis metropolitan area. Over the past week, some of these same locations across the South have seen well above average rainfall and may be at a greater risk of flash flooding from additional heavy rain. Thursday will be much quieter, but significantly colder behind the storm system from the north-central U.S. border with Canada to the Rio Grande. Forecast high temperatures are only in the 50s to 60s for many. The severe weather and flash flood threat will shift east ahead of the cold front from the Illinois/Indiana border to the central Gulf Coast, with a greater severe threat (Enhanced Risk by SPC) in place from central Louisiana to western Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Late spring-like temperatures will also shift east for Thursday with highs in the 70s to low 80s as far north as northern Ohio and western New York. By Friday the heavy rain and severe weather threat again shifts east, this time into the eastern U.S. SPC has an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms across the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia. Flash flooding will also become a possibility across the mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast as strong southerly winds increase moisture and cause multiple rounds of heavy rain roll across the region. Meanwhile, a separate system will enter the Northwest and bring unsettled weather from Washington and Oregon into the Northern Rockies. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php