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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0754Z Sep 23, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Sep 23 2023 - 12Z Mon Sep 25 2023 ...Tropical Storm Ophelia to produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and dangerous storm surge over parts of the Mid-Atlantic this weekend... ...Severe thunderstorms and instances of flash flooding likely across eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley through tonight... ...Summer heat continues across portions of the southern Plains, while much cooler temperatures and a wet weather pattern enters the Pacific Northwest... A cool, damp, and blustery weekend is in store for the Mid-Atlantic as Tropical Storm Ophelia moves northward through eastern North Carolina today. Ophelia remains a relatively large system, with tropical storm force winds extending as far as 270 miles from the center. The strongest winds (up to 70 mph) closer to the core of the storm are expected to impact eastern North Carolina today, with scattered tree damage and power outages possible. The large wind field will help produce widespread marine hazards and storm surge concerns along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Strong east-northeasterly winds to the north of the storm along a nearby frontal boundary will also allow for additional coastal flooding potential as far north as Long Island. Storm Surge and Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect. Additionally, heavy rain associated with the transport of tropical moisture may lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding impacts from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday. The highest rainfall totals (through Sunday morning) are expected to occur throughout eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia, where isolated rainfall amounts around 8 inches are possible. Ophelia is forecast to rapidly weaken into a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday as it nears southern Maryland, with heavy rain remaining possible across the northern Mid-Atlantic from southeastern Pennsylvania to Long Island. Conditions should generally improve by Monday across the region outside of some lingering showers. Active weather is also anticipated across the central U.S. as a potent fall storm system creates chances for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms. Showers and storms developing along a cold front may overlap and/or exhibit slow forward movement as they enter eastern Oklahoma, northeast Arkansas, and southeast Missouri. Several inches of rainfall within a short period of time into the overnight hours are likely to lead to instances of flash flooding. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for this area valid through early Sunday morning. Additionally, thunderstorms are likely to contain large to very large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for tornadoes. This severe threat overlaps with the heavy rain potential over eastern Oklahoma and parts of Missouri. Heavy rain and potent storms are also possible as far north as eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota, closer to a strengthening low pressure system. By Sunday, the unsettled weather is forecast to confine to the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Elsewhere, record-breaking heat continues across the southern Plains and particularly the Lone Star State until temperatures return closer to average on Monday. Highs into the upper 90s and low 100s will linger for the final full weekend of September, challenging and few daily high temperature records across Texas and parts of New Mexico. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure system developing over the northeast Pacific Ocean will usher in widespread shower activity across the Pacific Northwest beginning Sunday night. Rain may be heavy enough to lead to localized flooding concerns across southwest Oregon and northwest California. Snell Graphics available at