Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 12Z Fri May 16 2025 - 12Z Sun May 18 2025

...Severe thunderstorm outbreak expected today across the mid-Mississippi,
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, along with the potential for heavy rain and
flash flooding...

...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain over the next few days
could lead to isolated flash flooding across portions of New England...

...Record-breaking heat forecast across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and
Southeast through early this weekend as highs soar into the upper 90s and
triple digits...

...Windy and cool conditions anticipated across the Northern Plains today,
as well as the Intermountain West and Rockies this weekend...


A very active and complex mid-May weather pattern is set to produce
numerous areas of severe weather, heavy rain, high winds, and anomalous
temperatures through this weekend. A waffling frontal boundary stretching
from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the mid-Atlantic is expected to become
the focus for a potentially damaging severe weather outbreak today as a
sweeping secondary cold front pushes eastward out of the Great Plains
tonight. Blossoming severe thunderstorms will be capable of containing
large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes between southeast Missouri and
West Virginia, with thunderstorms containing damaging winds also possible
across a larger area extending from northeast Texas to the mid-Atlantic.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for
severe weather centered over the Lower Ohio Valley, where the greatest
concerns exist for several strong tornadoes. Additionally, thunderstorms
in this region will be capable of containing intense rainfall rates and
could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding. A Slight Risk (level
2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for this region. Residents and
travelers are advised to remain weather aware by having multiple ways of
receiving warnings and know where the nearest storm shelter or safe place
is should severe thunderstorms approach.

Elsewhere across the Northern Tier today, a strong wound-up low pressure
system churning over the Northern Plains is forecast to produce additional
rainfall and gusty winds across the Dakotas, with windy conditions
extending further into the Midwest. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories
are in effect. As this low pushes a few frontal boundaries eastward, a
moist airmass situated over the Northeast will allow for developing
thunderstorms over the next few days from the Interior Northeast to
northern New England. Some thunderstorms will be capable of containing
intense rainfall rates, which could lead to areas of flash flooding. A
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for portions of Maine
today.

The other primary weather story during the short term will be the
anomalous early-season heat forecast from South Texas to the southeastern
United States. Warm southerly winds and limited cloud cover will allow for
highs to reach near record-breaking territory and well into the 90s, with
triple digits expected for parts of South Texas. This is forecast to
produce widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk through this weekend across
much of southern Texas, which equates a level of heat that can affect
anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Be sure to
follow proper heat safety to stay cool during this first major heat wave
of the season. Above average temperatures with highs into the upper 80s
and 90s are also forecast today from the Midwest to East Coast, but will
be short-lived as a cold front brings temperatures closer to average by
this weekend.

For this weekend, active weather is forecast to remain over the
central/southern Plains while also overspreading this Intermountain West.
A lingering frontal boundary over the southern Plains on Saturday will
lift northward by Sunday and help spark several rounds of thunderstorms
throughout the region. Some storms may turn severe and produce damaging
winds, hail, and heavy rain. Meanwhile, a separate storm system entering
the West of Saturday will spread gusty winds and showers throughout the
region, along with high elevation snowfall. Any precipitation amounts are
expected to be seen as beneficial, with the strong wind potential on
Saturday prompting Wind Advisories across southern Nevada.


Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php