Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 00Z Sat May 09 2026 - 00Z Mon May 11 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southern Plains for this afternoon and a Slight Risk for severe
thundrstorms will continue for portion of the Southern Plains for Saturday
and Sunday...

... There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall over parts of
the Lower Mississippi Valley for this afternoon and Saturday...

... Record breaking heat expected out West during an early May Heatwave...

A cold/stationary front extending from the Ohio Valley to the Central
Plains will slowly dissipate by Saturday morning. The boundary will
produce rain showers and thunderstorms into the Central/Southern Plains,
Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley through Friday night.
Furthermore, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) for severe weather over parts of the Central/Southern Plains
for this afternoon and Saturday. The main weather hazard associated with
this event will be lightning, large hail, and severe gusty winds. On
Sunday, a severe weather threat will shift further south into the Southern
Great Plains and the Ark-La-Tex area with SPC issuing a Slight Risk (level
2/5). The main hazard associated with Sunday's event will be large hail
and severe wind gusts.

In addition,the stationary front along the Gulf will produce showers and
thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast through Saturday evening. These
thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy rainfall, which prompted the
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to issue a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley through
today. For tomorrow, another round of storms are possible for the central
Gulf Coast where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall is in
effect. A lot of this rainfall is beneficial for drought stricken areas.
However, flash flooding is possible in urban areas.

A cold front will move through that Great Lakes and the Mid-Atlantic on
Saturday and Sunday with limited moisture and daytime heating will aid in
th development of some severe thunderstorm. SPC has issued a Marginal Risk
(level 1/5) for damaging winds and small hail.A few supercells are
possible in the Mid-Atlantic.


As for temperatures, the Western U.S. will experience an early May
heatwave where temperatures are expected to be well above average to near
record breaking in the Great Basin, Intermountain West, and the Desert
Southwest. Widespread highs are expected to be in the 80s and 90s for high
terrain of the Intermountain West to and low 100s in the valleys of
Southern California and Arizona. The temperatures will increase and spread
east into the Plains throughout the weekend into early next week. The lows
are also expected to be above average for this time of year. As for the
eastern half of the U.S., temperatures are expected to be on the cooler
side with an anticipated cold coming from Canada. Temperatures will
generally be 70s and 60s for highs and lows in the 40s and 50s for the
weekend along the East Coast and Ohio Valley. A stronger push of cold air
will move in Sunday into Monday.


Green


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php