Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 22 2024 - 00Z Wed Apr 24 2024

...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Florida Peninsula through Monday...

...Light snow along the southern shore of Lake Superior on Tuesday...

...Temperatures will be above average over the Southwest; temperatures
will be below average from the Northeast to the Southeast, then to the
Southern Plains...

A front extending across the Florida Peninsula Coast will slowly move
southward of the Florida by Monday afternoon. Showers with strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop along the boundary. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Florida Peninsula through Monday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

On Monday, the front moves south of Florida by afternoon. Showers with
strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Florida
Peninsula until the boundary moves offshore. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Florida Peninsula through Monday afternoon. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Meanwhile, high pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley/Southern
Plains will gradually shift eastward, reaching off the Southeast Coast by
Tuesday evening. Clear skies and light wind will help allow temperatures
to be 5 to 15 degrees below average from the Northeast to the Southeast
and then to the Southern Plains, which will experience a slight warming
trend by Tuesday afternoon. In contrast, temperatures will be 5 to 15
degrees above average over parts of the Southwest through Tuesday evening.

A second front over the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin will also move
eastward to the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains by Tuesday. On Monday,
as the boundary moves onto the Plains, a weak plume of moisture flows from
the Western Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest, aiding in the development
of rain over parts of the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley
overnight Monday into Tuesday. On Tuesday, the rain moves into the Great
Lakes. By Tuesday evening, the rain will extend from the Lower Great Lakes
southwestward to the Middle Mississippi Valley. Cold high pressure over
Hudson Bay will stream cold air over Lake Superior, developing light snow
over the southern shore of Lake Superior.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php