Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018
Valid 00Z Mon Jul 16 2018 - 00Z Wed Jul 18 2018
...Heavy rain possible over the Southwest and Southeast...
...Cooler air moving into the Great Lakes and Northeast Monday into
Shower and thunderstorm development is expected to be a daily occurrence
from the central Plains into the Southeast near the southern edge of the
Westerlies, which is in the vicinity of surface fronts and troughs of
surface low pressure through Tuesday. Because of moisture levels being
above average for July, low temperatures could reach record warm values
across large portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday.
The warm overnight lows have prompted heat advisories for portions of the
southern Plains and lower to middle Mississippi Valley.
A marginal risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding is expected for
portions of the Southeast and central Plains today and Monday due to
uncertainty in the placement of the heaviest rainfall. Both the Southeast
and northern Plains should see an enhanced risk for heavy rains on Tuesday
as stronger systems aloft approach from their northwest and west
To the west, a flat, but strengthening, ridge of high pressure is expected
to extend across the Four Corners through Tuesday. This should allow
disturbances near and south of the U.S./Mexican border to move from east
to west, enhancing rainfall within the Southwest Monsoon across the Desert
Southwest, western and northern New Mexico, and Colorado this afternoon
and evening. As the ridge strengthens on Monday and Tuesday, the prospect
for heavy rainfall slowly fades near an elevated boundary trapped in
western Colorado, with the greatest risk of heavy rains being confined to
southwestern sections of the state.
Elsewhere, the progressive cold front moving into the Northeast is
expected to lead to heavy rainfall across New England on Tuesday as it
taps pool of above average moisture to the south -- a slight risk of
excessive rainfall exists here on Tuesday. In the wake of the front,
temperatures should become milder across the Great Lakes and Northeast
Monday into Wednesday. Otherwise, the weather pattern expected over the
lower 48 is generally summer-like through Tuesday, with virtually no
record hot high temperatures or record cool low temperatures forecast.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php