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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0754Z Apr 09, 2021)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Fri Apr 09 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 09 2021 - 12Z Sun Apr 11 2021 ...Stormy and unsettled weather pattern throughout the East to kickoff the weekend; rounds of severe weather and areas of flash flooding expected across the Deep South... ...Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather remain in place for the Southwest to Southern High Plains... ...Cooler than normal temperatures and mountain snow in the Northwest, warmer than normal in the Southwest and Northeast... A large occluded low pressure system in the Midwest continues to generate spotty areas of showers and thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning. While this storm system continues to make for cloudy and wet conditions throughout the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes today, a new potent upper level disturbance will strengthen as it tracks into the central Plains this afternoon. This results in a deepening area of low pressure in the South Central U.S. and an increasingly favorable environment for intense thunderstorm activity in the Deep South this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe weather today for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley with an expansive Slight Risk area that stretches from eastern Texas and Oklahoma to southern Georgia. Severe storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. In addition to the severe threat later today, there is also a threat for flash flooding as a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall has been posted from the Mississippi Delta region to central Alabama. Localized rainfall totals over 4 inches are possible in these locations. The severe weather and flash flood threat advances east on Saturday as an intensifying low pressure system tracks from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes by evening. Slight Risks for both severe weather and flash flooding have been posted from parts of the Southeast with portions of the Gulf Coast. Rainfall totals as high as 4 inches are possible along the central Gulf Coast. Widespread showers look to accompany the main storm system into the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon along with breezy conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be common from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast with a few storms potentially becoming severe. Hit-or-miss thunderstorms may continue into the overnight hours Saturday in these areas as the cold front makes its approach by Sunday morning. Meanwhile in the Southwest, drier conditions combined with breezy winds, low relative humidity, and favorable fuels continue to support Critical Fire Weather conditions from west Texas to central New Mexico. Elevated Risk areas are also in place throughout much of the southern High Plains and southern Rockies today. Fire Weather conditions remain in good standing on Saturday with an Elevated Risk for parts of southern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and far western Texas on Saturday. Depending on the timing of a cold frontal passage, fire weather conditions may remain favorable for at least some portions of the Southwest by on Sunday. Elsewhere, a strong Pacific cold front ushers in a below normal temperatures and a round of valley/coastal rain and mountain snow to the Northwest late Friday and into Saturday. Saturday daytime highs throughout the Northwest are forecast to range between 10 to 20 degrees below normal. The injection of subfreezing temperatures aloft provides mountain ranges such as the Cascades, the Bitterroots, and northern Rockies a chance for accumulating snowfall through Saturday evening. The heaviest totals are most likely to transpire in the Cascades where over a foot of snow is expected. While the Northwest turns quite cool, above normal temperatures will engulf the Desert Southwest, the Great Basin, south Texas, and much of the East Coast. The warmest anomalies today are anticipated in New England and South Texas with the latter watching high temperatures soar above the century mark in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Temps cool down some in Texas on Saturday, but high temp anomalies of 20-25 degrees above normal are expected in the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday. These anomalies roughly translate to highs approaching 80 degrees throughout the region Saturday afternoon. Mullinax Graphics available at