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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2023Z Oct 23, 2021)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 423 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Valid 00Z Sun Oct 24 2021 - 00Z Tue Oct 26 2021 ...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Sunday into Monday morning... ...Heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains... ...There is a Slight Risk severe thunderstorms over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning... A strong storm in the Eastern Pacific will impact the West Coast over the next several days. On Sunday, the associated front moves into the West Coast, advancing inland to the Northern High Plains to the Great Basin/Southern California by Monday evening. Moisture will stream into Central/Northern California overnight Saturday, turning into a powerful stream of moisture on Sunday. On Monday, the moisture stream will move southward along the coast while weakening. There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall through Sunday morning. As the moisture stream increases, WPC has issued a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Sunday into Monday morning. With the High Risk, significant, and potentially life threatening flash flooding is expected. On Monday, the excessive rainfall threat lessens to a Slight Risk over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains with a Marginal Risk over other parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and parts of the Southern California Coast from Monday into Monday night. Heavy snow will develop over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Monday as the front moves pass by. Furthermore, on Monday, spotty snow will develop over parts of the Cascades and the Northern Intermountain Region Rockies. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure over the Central Plains and associated front will interact with moisture flowing northward over the Plains/Mississippi Valley to produce showers and thunderstorms over the region overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, with some storms becoming severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat for tornadoes. The low and associated front marches eastward to the Lower Great Lakes. The trailing boundary extends across the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, then westward to the Southern Plains by Monday evening. As a result, the risk for severe thunderstorms moves eastward, with the front impacting the Middle Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday into Monday morning and into the Mid-Atlantic and the Central/Southern Appalachians and parts of the Southeast on Monday. Moreover, as the system moves east, heavy rain at times will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Sunday into Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these areas of rain and thunderstorms. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable on Sunday into Monday morning. Ziegenfelder Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php