Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 04 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of Eastern Texas on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday and the Southwest on
Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains and Lower Great Lakes,
Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians,
and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...

Tropical Depression EDOUARD over Eastern Texas is forecast to move
northward into Northeastern Texas and weaken on Wednesday and dissipate by
Thursday morning. EDOUARD will produce heavy rain over parts of Eastern
Texas on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level
3/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of Eastern
Texas on Wednesday.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Monsoonal moisture will start to increase on Wednesday over parts of the
Southwest, producing showers and thunderstorms.  By Thursday, the showers
and thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage and intensity, producing
heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest on
Thursday.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.  Showers and thunderstorms will continue
over the region into Friday. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over parts of the Great Basin and Central/Southern Rockies on
Wednesday and Thursday from the late afternoon into evening.

Also on Wednesday, a front will move eastward into the Northeast and move
out over the ocean by Friday.  The system will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Wednesday. 
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.     

Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains on Wednesday into Thursday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms will develop along the coast from the Mid-Atlantic,
Southeast/Florida to the Central/Western Gulf Coast through Thursday. The
showers and thunderstorms will end by Friday morning.

Next, a front extending from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes moves
into the Northeast on Thursday and continues roughly westward into the
Northern Plains.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the
boundary over the Northeast westward into the Northern Plains. Showers and
severe thunderstorms will develop in the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Thursday into Friday morning.  Hazards associated with these thunderstorms
include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.

Additionally, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday morning.  The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

A front will also move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and
dissipate by Thursday morning. The system will produce rain over the
Northwest on Wednesday into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will also
develop over the Northern Intermountain Region on Wednesday and continue
through Friday. Lastly, heat will build over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley, the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the Mid-Atlantic from
Wednesday into Friday. In response, Heat Advisories have been posted over
the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and along
the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Wednesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php